Tag: the gold report

How to Prosper in the Coming Downturn

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The Gold Report: In your latest book, "The Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 20142019," you write about the aging of the Baby Boomers and the wave of Gen-X'ers that follows. What does that tell you about the next five years?

Harry Dent: I discovered this relationship, which I call the spending wave, in 1988. Peak spending happens at about age 46 in the U.S., Japan and most developed countries. That is when a generation will earn, spend and borrow the most money. After that age, spending declines.

More than 20 years ago, we predicted Japanese spending would peak in the late 1980s, and U.S. spending around 2007. Now, Europe is hitting its demographic peak and will start dropping off. The drop off will be especially steep in Germany, the United Kingdom, Austria and Switzerland some of the strongest economies in Europe. How will Europe's rebound continue with these countries plunging in the years ahead?

TGR: Much of Germany's economic strength is based on exports. Would that protect Germany through the decline? Continue reading "How to Prosper in the Coming Downturn" →

Miners Must Mind Their Margins

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The Gold Report: Since you last spoke to The Gold Report in March, the price of gold has collapsed. What happened?

Rob Cohen: Gold has collapsed when compared to the U.S. dollar, but not when compared to other hard assets. For instance, since gold was allowed to float in 1971, its average price ratio per ounce to the price of a barrel of oil has been 15:1. Right now, it's about 13:1, so it's not that far from the mean. We remain a little puzzled by what has happened. Going back to 2008, there's been a strong correlation between the expanding balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the rising price of gold, but that link has been cut, at least for now.

We have also had some positive economic data out of the U.S.

TGR: Is this positive data really all that positive? Continue reading "Miners Must Mind Their Margins" →

Lack Of Demand, Not Manipulation Is Behind The Gold Price Drop

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The Gold Report: This year has been difficult for gold investors. The price went from a high of almost $1,800/ounce ($1,800/oz) to where it is now, in the mid-$1,200/oz range. You have written extensively about the supply and demand forces of precious metals. What is behind the drop in the gold price?

Jeffrey Christian: The single most important factor has been a massive decline in the investment demand for gold. In 2013 investors have bought about 30 million ounces (30 Moz) gold on a net basis globally. That's down from about 39 Moz in 2012 and 31 Moz in 2011, but it is still at a very high level compared to historic investment demand. The net purchases are down 24% because some investors are selling gold.

TGR: Are they putting their money into other investment vehicles or are they sitting on their cash? Continue reading "Lack Of Demand, Not Manipulation Is Behind The Gold Price Drop" →

Could Bad Data Be Depressing the Gold Price?

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The Gold Report: Eric, you published an Open Letter to the World Gold Council saying that the massive imbalance between supply and demand is not reflected in prices because available statistics are misleading, and that is the most important obstacle to a healthy gold mining industry. Why has it been so difficult to get accurate statistics and what should be measured to get a better picture of demand, particularly in emerging markets?

Eric Sprott: I have always had a dispute with the data that Thomson Reuters GFMS Gold Survey puts out, which the World Gold Council uses as the basis for its analysis of gold. Since I've been involved in the gold market, the supply always magically equals the demand. Of course, we know that's almost impossible. Continue reading "Could Bad Data Be Depressing the Gold Price?" →

Three Reasons Why Gold's Best Days Are Ahead

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The Gold Report: Sean, over the next two months, you'll be launching two different newsletters. The first one will be called Gold and Resource Trader. Why is now the right time to debut?

Sean Brodrick: It is a good idea because gold is generally hated right now. I like to look smart. One way to look smart is to buy things near a bottom and then hold onto them as they increase in value.

There is real value in the gold mining area. I ran a screen recently showing 25 miners trading on U.S. exchanges below book value. Some of them I wouldn't buy, but some I would. This shows that real value is there. We are closer to the bottom than we were to the top, so now is a good time to get in.

TGR: Tell us about the second newsletter you're going to launch in January? Continue reading "Three Reasons Why Gold's Best Days Are Ahead" →