Stocks Set to Pop Off Following 4th of July

With the pandemic in the rearview mirror, Independence Day has taken on an entirely new significance for most Americans this time. Americans appear to have gone above and beyond to compensate for the years spent indoors by making the most of the (unofficially) long weekend with short trips, camping, cookouts, pool parties, and eating out.

The increased demand for, and consequently expenditure on, services and experiences is also evident in the recent employment data, with leisure and hospitality adding 208,000 positions out of the expectation-beating private sector employment increase of 278,000 for May. The sector was also a notable contributor to the increase of 339,000 in non-farm payrolls for the month.

In view of the above, leisure stocks could be the beneficiaries of the increased levels of outdoor activities around the nation’s Independence Day. In this context, the following stocks that could witness significant upsides in the near term could be worth watching.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

While the global entertainment giant has recently been in the news for its ongoing feud with Gov. Ron DeSantis, outside the political and legal arena, DIS is going through a significant transition under the leadership of its returned CEO, Robert A. Iger.
In addition to the Disney Entertainment and the ESPN divisions, the rest of DIS’ businesses will be organized under the existing parks, experiences, and products division.

As a result, DIS reported significant growth at its theme parks during the fiscal second quarter, which saw a 17% increase in revenue to $7.7 billion, with around $5.5 billion contributed by theme-park locations. Moreover, its cruise business also saw an increase in passenger cruise days as guests spent more time and money visiting its parks, hotels, and cruises domestically and internationally during the quarter.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)

The global pizza chain operates two distinct delivery and carryout service models within its stores. The company operates through three segments: U.S. stores; international franchises; and supply chain. In addition to company-owned and franchised stores across the United States, its network of franchised stores is spread in 90 international markets.

Given the increased outdoor activity, while delivery sales will stabilize, carryout sales are expected to grow in the next twelve months. In view of the widespread reversal of consumer behavior to pre-pandemic patterns, on June 20, DPZ launched its Pinpoint Delivery service nationwide that allows customers to receive a delivery almost anywhere, ranging from parks and baseball fields to beaches, without a standard address.

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

Being one of the major air carriers, AAL is reaping the bounty of the surge in leisure travel during the first summer in three years in which the pandemic is not making headlines.

With enough pent-up demand from consumers ever keener to redeem their pile of airline miles and other travel rewards on their credit cards through revenge travel, it’s unsurprising that AAL has turned to bigger airplanes, even on shorter routes, to help ease airport congestion and find its way around pilot shortages.

As a result of this tailwind, AAL’s revenue surpassed the airline’s cost to help it report a $10 million profit during the first quarter of the fiscal year. Moreover, with fuel prices yet to rise significantly due to a stuttering recovery of the Chinese economy and Memorial Day travel topping 2019 levels, the operator has raised its adjusted earnings outlook for the second quarter.

Nathan's Famous, Inc.

NATH operates in the food service industry as an owner of franchise restaurants under Nathan’s Famous brand name. The company also sells products bearing Nathan’s Famous trademarks through various distribution channels.

Driven by post-pandemic momentum, for the fiscal year that ended March 26, 2023, NATH’s revenues increased 13.8% year-over-year to $130.79 million. During the same period, the company’s income from operations increased by 15.3% year-over-year to $34.45 million, while its adjusted EBITDA grew 16.8% year-over-year to come in at $36.38 million. As a result, net income for the fiscal came in at $19.62 million, up 44.3% year-over-year.

5 Best Performing Leisure Stocks to Buy in 2023 Summer

With the pandemic well and truly in the rearview mirror, for most Americans, the onset of summer can only mean one thing: increased consumption. However, e-commerce, albeit with a few hiccups in the supply chain, was able to satiate the appetite for goods through the pandemic.
Hence, Americans are now going above and beyond to compensate for the years spent indoors trying to substitute real experiences with virtual ones. Think camping, cookouts, pool parties, and weekend trips.

Consumers are ever keener to redeem their airline miles on other travel rewards on their credit cards for new experiences through revenge travel.
Consequently, airlines, such as American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) , have turned to bigger airplanes, even on shorter routes, to help ease airport congestion and find their way around pilot shortages, while Ed Bastion, CEO of Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) revealed, “We’ve had the 20 largest cash sales days in our history all occur this year.”

Moreover, as the consumer price index only grew by 4% year-over-year, which is the slowest in 2 years, a pause in interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could add further momentum to the jump of 0.8% in spending in April.

The increased demand for, and consequently expenditure on, services and experiences are also evident in the recent employment data, with leisure and hospitality adding 208,000 positions out of the expectation-beating private sector employment increase of 278,000 for the month of May. The sector was also a notable contributor to the increase of 339,000 in non-farm payrolls for the month.

Given the above, leisure stocks could be smart investments to capitalize on the increased levels of outdoor activity. Here are a few stocks in the realm of traveling or recreational activities that stand to gain during the summer.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

While the global entertainment giant has recently been in the news for its ongoing feud with Gov. Ron DeSantis, outside the political and legal arena, DIS is going through a significant transition under the leadership of its returned CEO, Robert A. Iger.
In addition to the Disney Entertainment and the ESPN divisions, the rest of DIS’ businesses will be organized under the existing parks, experiences, and products division.

As a result, DIS reported significant growth at its theme parks during the fiscal second quarter, which saw a 17% increase in revenue to $7.7 billion, with around $5.5 billion contributed by theme-park locations. Moreover, its cruise business also saw an increase in passenger cruise days as guests spent more time and money visiting its parks, hotels, and cruises domestically and internationally during the quarter.

Marriott International (MAR)

Under various brand names, such as JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, and St. Regis, MAR operates, franchises, and licenses hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties through two geographical segments: U.S. & Canada and International.

Over the past three years, MAR’s revenue has grown at a 10.6% CAGR. During the same time horizon, the company’s EBITDA and net income have grown at 22.2% and 43.4% CAGRs, respectively.

On June 5, MAR announced its plans to further expand in the affordable midscale lodging segment, following its recent entry into the segment with City Express by Marriott in Latin America.

While the soon-to-be-launched brand has not yet been named, it is currently being referred to as Project MidX Studios. The affordable midscale extended stay brand is intended to deliver reasonably priced modern comfort for guests seeking longer stay accommodations in the U.S. & Canada.

Pool Corporation (POOL)

POOL is a wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products. The company also distributes irrigation and landscape products in the United States.

Over the past three years, POOL’s revenue has grown at a 22.1% CAGR. During the same time horizon, the company’s EBITDA and net income have grown at 37.5% and 37.2% CAGRs, respectively.

On May 4, POOL announced an increase in its share repurchase program to a total authorization of $600 million, along with a 10% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $1.10 per share.

Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF)

The Fairhaven, Massachusetts-headquartered company designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes golf products. It operates through four segments: Titleist golf balls; Titleist golf clubs; Titleist golf gear; and FootJoy golf wear.

Over the past three years, GOLF’s revenue increased at a 12.4% CAGR, while its EBITDA grew at 18% CAGR. During the same time horizon, the company’s net income has also grown at a 30.6% CAGR.

On February 7, GOLF announced the acquisition of the Club Glove brand, including trademarks, domains, and products, from West Coast Trends, Inc. Founded in 1990, Club Glove is the preferred choice by the overwhelming majority of PGA Tour, LPGA Tour, and PGA Club Professionals, and its patented travel gear has long been recognized among the industry’s most innovative and reliable products.

During the fiscal first quarter that ended March 31, 2023, GOLF’s net sales increased by 13.2% year-over-year to $686.3 million. During the same period, the company’s adjusted EBITDA increased by 22.3% year-over-year to $146.8 million, while the net income attributable to it grew by 15.2% year-over-year to come in at $93.3 million.

Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT)

For Americans who find the great outdoors and road trips more akin to their idea of freedom and the spirit of adventure, JOUT manufactures and markets branded seasonal outdoor recreation products used primarily for fishing, diving, paddling, and camping. The company’s segments include Fishing; Camping; Watercraft Recreation; and Diving.

Over the past three years, JOUT’s revenue increased by 11% CAGR, while its total assets have increased by 11.6% CAGR during the same time horizon.

Due to an improved supply chain situation and increased travel, during the second quarter of the fiscal that ended March 31, JOUT’s net sales increased by 7% year-over-year to $202.1 million. During the same period, the company’s net income came in at $14.9 million, compared to $9.9 million during the previous-year quarter.

Market Anticipation Builds as 3 Key Companies Prepare to Announce Earnings

Corporate America was bracing itself to report the biggest drop in earnings since the pandemic began three years ago, with profits for S&P 500 companies expected to fall by as much as 8% due to inflation, increased borrowing costs, and other headwinds.

However, businesses appear to be blowing past these low expectations, with 77% of reports beating analysts' estimates, with reported earnings being 7.2% above expectations.

A relatively weak dollar due to the trend of de-dollarization gaining momentum and the looming crisis over raising the debt ceiling due to political differences regarding government expenditure on both sides of the aisle might also have been unwitting tailwinds that have helped the likes of Apple Inc. (AAPL) keep the mood buoyant on the Street

After reporting stronger-than-expected results, the tech giant’s shares surged by 4.8% on May 5.

However, the first quarter still would mark a second straight quarterly fall for U.S. corporate earnings after COVID-19 hit corporate results in 2020.
Given this backdrop, let’s look at the prospects of three stocks ahead of their earnings release this week.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

DIS has recently been in the news for being on a legal collision course with Florida Governor Ron DeSanctis. Differences between the company and the governor began with DIS’ opposition to the Parental Rights in Education Act, which prohibits lessons on sexual orientation and gender identity in public schools through the third grade.

In an alleged retaliation, the Florida Senate approved the Disney Special Tax-District Bill, which would seek to move the control of the Reedy Creek district from the company back to the state. DIS has expanded the lawsuit contesting this move to include new regulations passed by the state’s legislature that allow officials to nullify development agreements brokered by the company. Continue reading "Market Anticipation Builds as 3 Key Companies Prepare to Announce Earnings"

Disney - Full Business Strength Ahead

Disney is starting to fire on all cylinders now that Covid has subsided. Disney's parks are back in full swing, and movie theaters are springing back to life in this post-pandemic environment. Despite Disney's full business nearly back online, the stock sits near a 52-week low. Disney (DIS) should be in the sweet spot of capitalizing on the pent-up post-pandemic consumer wave of travel and spending at its parks while being the new and preferred content provider via Disney Plus. The former is roaring back while the latter continues to build out content and expand its membership base.

The streaming efforts (Disney Plus, ESPN, and Hulu) have transformed Disney's business model with recurring revenue streams, which will be further bolstered by its legacy businesses now that Covid is diminishing. Taken together, Disney has set itself up to benefit across the board with its streaming initiatives firing on all cylinders while its theme parks are back online and movie theaters have reopened. The company has been posting phenomenal streaming numbers that have negated the negative pandemic impact on its theme parks. However, the streaming-centric narrative is changing as the theme park revenue flows into the company's earnings. Disney presents a very compelling buy for long-term investors as the synergy of its legacy business segments combines with its wildly successful streaming initiatives, all of which have more pricing power down the road to expand margins.

“Hulk Smash” Earnings

Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich noted that the most recent quarterly results were "Hulk smash" and largely driven by Disney+ direct-to-consumer segment, as well as "significantly better" results from its parks, experience, and products business, which generated $2.45 billion, compared to estimates of $1.35 billion. Continue reading "Disney - Full Business Strength Ahead"

Disney - Irrational 52-Week Low

Disney's market capitalization had been eviscerated by over 30%, and the stock price hit an irrational 52-week low in early December. Disney's valuation has been in a tug of war between its legacy business model and its streaming initiatives. Disney should be in the sweet spot of capitalizing on the pent-up post-pandemic consumer wave of travel and spending at its parks while being the new and preferred stay-at-home content provider via Disney+. However, the former has been altered due to uncertainty over the newest omicron coronavirus variant while the latter continues to build out content and expand its membership base.

Disney (DIS) has rolled out a wildly successful array of streaming initiatives that catered to the stay-at-home economy during the pandemic. These streaming efforts have transformed Disney's business model, which its legacy businesses will further bolster as the world economy prospects continue to improve and reopen, albeit minor bumps in the road.

Taken together, Disney has set itself up to benefit across the board with its streaming initiatives firing on all cylinders and theme parks coming back online. The company has been posting phenomenal streaming numbers that have negated the negative pandemic impact on its theme parks. This streaming-specific narrative will change as the theme park revenue comes back online and flows into the company's earnings. As a result, Disney presents a very compelling buy for long-term investors as the synergy of its legacy business segments get back online in conjunction with its wildly successful streaming initiatives, all of which have more pricing power down the road to expand margins. Continue reading "Disney - Irrational 52-Week Low"