Treasury Yields Suggest A Top Is Near

Historically, whenever the Treasury Yields fall below zero, then recover back above zero, the US/Global markets reach some peak in price levels within 3 to 8+ months. My research team and I believe the actions of the global markets may be setting up for a future peak in price levels sometime in the next 6 months. We believe this will start when the Treasury Yields cross above the “Breakdown Threshold”.

Expect a continued rally as long as yields stay below certain levels.

In 1998, a very brief drop below zero in yields prompted a minor pullback in the markets before the bigger top setup in 2000. This pullback in price aligned with what we are calling the “Breakdown Threshold” level on Yields near 1.20. After the Yields crossed this Threshold, briefly, in 1999, they fell back below this level and the US stock market continued to rally toward an ultimate peak in 2000.

In late 2000, Yields collapsed well below the zero levels and recovered back above zero in early 2001. Just 3+ months later, Yields had rallied above the Breakdown Threshold level (1.2) and the US stock markets had already begun to breakdown as well. This instance, the 2000-01 peak, took place after an Appreciation cycle phase prompted an Excess Phase Rally (the DOT COM bubble). The “Rollover Top” that took place near this top may be similar to what we see happen in 2021 if our research is correct. Continue reading "Treasury Yields Suggest A Top Is Near"

S&P 500: Any Juice Left?

Lior Alkalay - Contributor

The S&P 500 (CME:SP500) closed for the week at 2,472.10, after hitting an all-time record, after gaining 10.5% year-to-date. The S&P’s forward Price-to-Earnings ratio, a key ratio for investors, is 17.8 above the 10-year average of 14. And this brings up the inevitable pondering; is there any juice left in the S&P 500?

In searching for an answer, the intuitive starting point might be the S&P’s valuation. We’ve already pointed out that the S&P 500 is trading at a high valuation compared to its 10-year average. Furthermore, according to Factset research, earnings for the 500 companies which comprise the S&P 500 are expected to rise by 9.3% as compared to 9.26% in 2016. Now, while that is a solid figure, it also suggests earnings growth is not accelerating and may even suggest the acceleration in earnings growth is over. And if earnings growth is likely to decelerate in the coming years it cannot account for the S&P500’s 17.8 PE ratio. So, there’s no valid reason why the S&P’s valuation would be the catalyst for another surge. Why not? Simply because it's too high. In fact, the real catalyst isn’t within the S&P500 or even within the stock market; instead, the real reason lies within the Bond market. Continue reading "S&P 500: Any Juice Left?"