How to Pick Intraday Market Direction

Trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC, has agreed to share one of his favorite trading tips as a special treat to our viewers. Determining the direction of the market can be tricky, and just plain confusing at times. Get Larry’s expert opinion on how to keep it simple. If you like this article, you won’t want to miss his secret one-time framing technique!
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How to Pick Intraday Market Direction – the 80% Rule

Let me introduce you to one simple technique I've used to pick intraday market direction with 80% accuracy.

Would you like to know if a particular trade has an 80% probability of working? Would you like to know exactly where to enter that trade, and where to exit? Would you like to trade this technique with a 2 point stop loss or less? Continue reading "How to Pick Intraday Market Direction"

Trader's Toolbox: Stochastics (K%D)

Yesterday you freshened up with the Williams %R oscillator. Today we have an indicator that you may or may not be familiar with as well.Like we have said before, if you have used other technical analysis indicators previously, you can use a combination of the studies and other techniques in conjunction with the "Trade Triangles" to further confirm trends.

The stochastics indicator created by George Lane measures the relative position of the closing price within a given time interval. This indicator is based upon the premise that prices tend to close near the upper portion of a trading range during uptrends and near the lower portion of a trading range during downtrends. When prices close in the middle of a range, this suggests a sideways market. There are two components to this calculation, the %K value and the %D value. The %K is calculated as follows: %K= (C-Ln / Hn – Ln) x 100 where C = closing price of current period, Ln = lowest low during n time periods. Hn = highest high during n time periods and n = number of periods.

The %D value is the moving average of the %K value. The simple moving average calculation is: %D = 100 (Hn / Ln) also in the %K formula.

These formulas produce two lines that oscillate between a scale of 0 and 100. As with the other oscillators, a stochastic value below 30% suggest an oversold condition, while a value greater than 70% suggests an overbought condition.

Some simple trading rules apply in the use of the stochastics indicator. A sell rule would be to sell when the fast (%K) crosses over the slow (%D) and both are pointing down, but are still above the 70% level. A buy signal would be triggered when the fast crosses the slow, and both point up, but are below the 30% level.

Another type of signal occurs when the stochastics indicator diverges from a price move similar to momentum and RSI.

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You can learn more about the Stochastics and George Lane by visiting INO TV.

Traders Toolbox: Reversals Revisited

Trader's Toolbox

At MarketClub our mission is to help you become a better trader. Our passion is creating superior trading tools to help you achieve your goals -- no matter which way the markets move -- with objective and unbiased recommendations not available from brokers.

The Trader's Toolbox posts are just another free resource from MarketClub.

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Image Reactions Within A Downtrend

"Reversals In my opinion, one of the most misused and abused terms in technical analysis is the reversal or key reversal. I often get calls from both new and experienced traders who are excited about a market because it has just posted a “key reversal.” While the action these traders point to often marks a reversal day, such a day (week or month) by itself actually has little significance. There is research which indicates single period reversals mark a turn only about 50% of the time. Which gives about the same odds of indicating a turn using a coin flip..."

Revisit the Trader's Toolbox Post: "Reversals" here.

How to Determine When the Market is Really Trending

S&P Trader Larry Levin, President of Trading Advantage LLC, has agreed to share one of his favorite trading secrets as  a special treat to our viewers. Determining a trend can often be tricky. Get Larry's expert opinion on how to keep it simple. If you like this article, you won't want to miss his secret one-time framing technique!

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How to Determine When the Market is Really Trending

How often have you looked at a chart and tried to determine whether or not the market is really trending? How many times have you been fooled by your Stochastics or RSI indicators? How many times have you sold because your oscillators were screaming overbought then watched the market dip a little and then continue higher, stopping you out for another loss? One of the most important things you are probably trying to figure out with any given market is if it is in a trend, and in which direction that trend is moving.

Find the trend and make friends with it

Swimming upstream is difficult, and that kind of battle is probably why you’ll often hear traders say, “The trend is your friend.” But spotting a real trend can be tricky, especially for first time traders and chart observers. You don’t need really fancy calculations or trading software to spot a trend in a market, and if you find it, don’t fight it.

Guess who bought the dip? That's right, the floor traders and the other professionals

If a market is really trending, there will always be reactions against the prevailing trend. Those are the signals most floor traders love. They know that many investors in the general public will fall for the "fade" nearly every time. So how do you know whether or not what you are seeing is a real trending market or not?

The basics are very simple. A market in an uptrend will likely have higher highs and higher lows. The opposite is true for a downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows tell you when the market is in a downtrend.

You never want to go against these situations.

IMPORTANT TRADING RULES:

1) We never get long or buy in a downtrending market.
2) We never sell or go short in an uptrending market.

It's just like stepping in front of a freight train.

A market on a move higher will attract new buyers and selling forces will help establish higher highs. When the price dips, more buyers will come in on what they perceive as a value entry point, delivering those higher lows. On the downside, selling pressure will cause lower lows and any move above those results in more sales, topping off those lower highs.

Find support and resistance and find trading opportunities
Once you have determined the overall trend, you can look for support and resistance points. Knowing these price levels can help you follow the trend, buying on dips in a market that might be trending higher or selling on pops when the prevailing trend is likely lower. It doesn't get any better than that!

Did you like this trading tip?  Click HERE for a technique Larry used to make over 1.9 million dollars in the market:

Best Trades to you,

Larry Levin
Founder & President- Trading Advantage 

Disclaimer: Trading in futures and options involves a substantial degree of a risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Grain Trader Report for Monday May 2nd

As part of INO.com’s ongoing effort to bring solid educational information for investors, we are pleased to offer you free access to one of the most sought after grain traders in the industry.  Grain floor trader Matt Pierce shares his Monday grain report with us for free.  If you would like to receive this report via email for free each week, simply visit Grainanalyst.com and tell them INO sent you.

Trends:

Click here to Continue reading "Grain Trader Report for Monday May 2nd"