U.S. Crude Production In February Reflects Unscheduled GOM Maintenance

The Energy Information Administration reported that February crude oil production averaged a surprising 11.683 million barrels per day (mmbd), down 187,000 b/d from January. The drop was totally the result of unscheduled maintenance in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), which averaged 1.719 mmbd. Production had been over 1.9 mmbd in November through January.

Crude Production

Despite drops in January and February, crude production still rose by a spectacular 1.219 mmbd from June through February, a period when capacity takeaway constraints had been expected to slow down the growth in Texas.

Production in Texas rose by 69,000 b/d to a record 4.890 mmbd. That was nearly offset by a decline in North Dakota of 64,000 b/d due to seasonal factors. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production In February Reflects Unscheduled GOM Maintenance"

U.S. Crude Production In January Displays A Seasonal Lull

The Energy Information Administration reported that January crude oil production averaged 11.871 million barrels per day (mmbd), down 90,000 b/d from December. Despite the drop in January, crude production still rose by a spectacular 1.407 mmbd from June through January, a period when capacity takeaway constraints had been expected to slow down the growth in Texas.

crude production

The year-over-year gains have been especially impressive with the January figure being 1.876 mmbd. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply add to that. For January, that additional gain is about 6,950 b/d. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production In January Displays A Seasonal Lull"

Round 2: Trump Vs. OPEC

With oil prices having staged a recovery during the first quarter of 2019, primarily due to the withholding of oil supplies from Saudi Arabia, President Trump has once again entered the oil market as a threat. Not since OPEC’s founding in 1960 has an American president been as vocal or involved as Trump.

Trump’s intervention in “Round 1,” summarized below, shocked the market, causing a massive price collapse. However, with close scrutiny of the president’s views, both before taking office and over the past year, the market should not have been so surprised.

Saudi Arabia is in a delicate position. On the one hand, it needs oil prices in the $80s to support it's country’s budget, even if lifting costs are $10 or less. It also knows that a “high price” is not the best price longer-term, due to cutbacks in demand and the increasing availability of substitutes, such as U.S. shale.

But possibly most importantly, it depends on the U.S. for its security. And looking forward, it wants U.S. investment to help diversify its economy as the oil age wanes.

Simply put, it cannot afford to ignore this U.S. president, whose first international trip was to KSA. There is an important political and economic link to the U.S. that it did not have even one president ago (Obama). And its arch-nemesis, Iran, at the same time is being severely harassed by President Trump. Continue reading "Round 2: Trump Vs. OPEC"

U.S. Crude Production Outperforms In November

The Energy Information Administration reported that November crude oil production averaged 11.900 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 345,000 b/d from October. This estimate capped a spectacular 6-month gain of 1.436 mmbd from June through November, a period when capacity takeaway constraints had been expected to slow down the growth in Texas.

November crude oil production

The year-over-year gains have been especially impressive with the November figure being 1.801 mmbd. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply add to that. For November, that additional gain is about 500,000 b/d. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Outperforms In November"

U.S. Crude Production Gains Slow In October

The Energy Information Administration reported that October crude production averaged 11.560 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 79,000 b/d from September. This was a slowdown in growth from the spectacular numbers recorded in July and August.

Crude Production

However, the year-over-year gain was still a very impressive 1.850 mmbd. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply add to that. For October, that additional gains is about 600,000 b/d.

Crude Production

The gain was led by a 33,000 b/d increase in New Mexico, a 31,000 b/d rise in North Dakota and a gain of 22,000 b/d in Colorado. Weather factors affected the overall gain, as production fell by another 29,000 b/d in the U.S. Gulf. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Gains Slow In October"