Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your 1 p.m. market update for Monday, the 25th of July.
Well, here we are again with no end in the debt ceiling problem. I think the markets are just waiting to get this thing resolved one way or another.
When this problem was not resolved over the weekend, the Gold market acted in dramatic fashion and jumped to $1,624 in the Asia. Not exactly a resounding vote of confidence for the US markets or the government.
This is a "flip a coin" type market where whatever comes out of Washington will have an effect on markets. However having said that, we may be coming to an area in the S&P where we are going to have natural technical problems. The S&P 500, in my humble opinion, needs to move over the highs around the 1370 level to really get going on the upside. I am not so sure that's going to happen. Let's see how the market performs today and how Gold and Silver close.
Now, let's go to the markets and see how we can protect and grow your money in 2011.
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S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90
The parabolic or PSAR is just above the high so far today, and sits at 1347.00. We need to see this market make new highs before we can abandon what we think may be a significant top. Barring any dramatic news today out of Washington, this index may just be running out of gas.
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SILVER (SPOT)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90
Silver moved higher today, but really lacked any strong push to the upside. In fact for most of the morning while it has been higher, it has been somewhat on the defensive. The trend is higher with all our Triangles in positive mode. The 38.88 level on the PSAR is a level of support. However, we are somewhat concerned that this market doesn't have more punch to the upside today. We still have a target zone of 42.00 to 43.00 on this market.
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GOLD (SPOT)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90
The gold market charged forward to $1624 in early Asian trading. However it was unable to maintain that level, as it is now falling back from those earlier levels. This is a new high move for gold and while we're somewhat disappointed that there's not more upside momentum, we maintain our targets of $1,642 to $1,650 basis the spot market.
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CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
The crude oil market continues to move in a sideways direction and is currently having problems at the $100 a barrel level. As we have said in earlier commentary, we are looking for this market to eventually break out of this current impasse. We have talked about an energy field that we believe this market is building. A close over $100 is needed in my opinion to start this market on the upside. Our Trade Triangle Technology is positive in the intermediate term.
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DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
The Dollar Index is currently trading around the 74.15 level and contrary to popular opinion did not collapse with the lack of progress on raising the debt ceiling. The fact that the dollar is at the lower end of the Donchian trading channel could present a bounce on the upside for the dollar. The Dollar index remains below its 200 day moving average. Resistance remains at 75.50 and support comes in today at 74.00.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
Like we have said before, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity index is heavily influenced by crude oil. Today is no different with crude oil being under pressure early in the day. However, we believe this market is building a large energy field to move higher later in the year. We would not rule out another pullback to the 335 level. The PSAR comes in today at the 343 area and should this level be broken it would indicate a pullback to the center line of the Donchian trade channel. At the present time our Trade Triangle technology is neutral. Resistance is between 349 and 350. Support comes in at 342.
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Thank you so much for all the questions you sent in for our MarketClub TV show.
I would like to invite you to be part of our next show by calling 410-867-2100 extension 129 and (1)leave us a message, (2) tell us how you use MarketClub, (3) asked a question about the market or (4) anything to do with the markets.
By calling today I will enter your name in a drawing to win a one-year membership to MarketClub. The winner will be announced on this week's coming show.
As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
Every success,
Adam Hewison
President of INO.com
Co-founder of MarketClub
>Also with a move toward electric cars < (not in the GOP plan)
DOT says 2% by 2020, not good.(much less in GOP)
Lithium - only till a new breakthrough(EEStor Ultracapacitors: Battery Revolution begins), then a 50% haircut. http://www.eestor.biz/
Use the Trade Triangles.
Adam, Trade Triangles for the President? Total US market?
Rich and Business blind math opinion President of the United States
Long-Term Trends = Positive
Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90
Could get some press?
We seem to love this guy.
Buy the Rumor, Sell the News
>If we don’t get the debt ceiling resolved by weeks end, I would
prefer all my cash be hidden in a big hole underground the way
valuables used to be hoarded in the 800′s. <
If so US dollars will become rare. Less of them = up in value.
Does the GOP really want to take away 1 Tril. spending? A 20% cut to GDP!!!!
Who agrees to a 20% GDP cut.
We are where Japan was. That is our best course~ for 20 years no BIG changes. Or we can try cuts like Greece~ See how that is working!!! (read the GOP plan it is the same)
Every $1.00 we cut we lose $ .30 in revenue.
If you do not believe this just look at a Japan dollar chart 30 years. ~see i'm right~ 😉
TBCarney< Canada did not have any bank fail. We should copy those laws, We know they work. But we will try the untested again.
I beleive there will be n investment opportunity in solar and wind power. Also with a move toward electric cars I think Lithium may also be a good place to invest. I would like your opinion on these and do you have any thoughts on holdings in these areas that would be better than others?
Thanks
Vaughn
If we don't get the debt ceiling resolved by weeks end, I would
prefer all my cash be hidden in a big hole underground the way
valuables used to be hoarded in the 800's. Not only that, there
is a chance many people who rely soley on the governent and have
no moral scruples will be running the streets pillaging and
plundering. Scary scenario but anythings possible.
With that being said, I do believe, after last nights Speech by
both the President and the Speaker, that, though both sides seem
to come from separate planets (I come from one of them) something
is going to be resolved for the good of the country. I prefer
one of the parties does not back down, but it's going to happen.
So, my prediction for stocks is actually positive here in the
future, although I realize our credit rating may affect the markets
in the short term.
The Australian government have already rejected a take over of Lynas by a foreign company(Chinese)
so it can only be a take over by an Australian company
Yeah...DUMP REE NOW!
I am presently following the rare earth stocks; in particular, I have Molycorps (MCP), both Lynas Australian and Lynas ADR (LYSCF and LYSDY), and Rare Element (REE). I am doing well with the MCP and the Lynas family, but the REE is drifting around a support level of $10. I have discussed this field with other people, one broker at Raymond James and other common long term traders like myself. Their is some opinion that perhaps one of the rare earth companies may be subject to a buyout. With REE drifting lower to the support level; would you care to reflect on this field, please.