What is going to happen with the debt?

Hello fellow traders everywhere. Adam Hewison here co-founder of MarketClub with your weekend trading update for the week ending on 7/29/11.

Out of the six markets we track every trading day, five markets were in negative territory for the week. The only market that did not end up in the minus column was gold which moved up 1.40%.

The percentage loser for the week was S&P500 which moved down 3.69% and is on the verge of breaking out to the downside. The markets continue to wait and  wait and wait to see what is going to happen with the debt.

Let's take a look at the charts, because unlike politicians, they tell you what is really going on in the world.

So here's what happened last week in the major markets….

S&P500 move for the week: -3.69%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends        = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends        = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score            = - 70

Silver move for the week: -.47%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends        = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends        = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score            = + 75

Gold move for the week: +1.40%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends        = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends        = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score            = + 90

Oil move for the week: -4.43%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends        = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends        = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score            = - 75

$ Index move for the week: -.52%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends        = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends        = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score            = - 55

CRB Index move for the week: - 1.88%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends        = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends    = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends        = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score            = + 60

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MarketClub's Weekend Update for (7/30/11)

32 thoughts on “What is going to happen with the debt?

  1. What the president should do to reduce enough debt and to get more jobs here is simple, stop paying illegal immigrants all of our hard earned money to live here free. Send them back and make them apply legally if they want to live here. The figures i get are astounding, how much we pay for their medical and the cost of keeping them in our prisons. The figures i have will reduce our debt by over 2 trillion a year. Take that to the bank.

  2. I just do not understand how anyone can compare Greece, Cuba, Spain or any of these kinds of countries with no natural resources and no real economy to speak of to the US economy. Please take your head out of your A**.

  3. It is only bad to increase the debt limit when it is a black democrat president trying to do it. Where were you all during the years when this all was being created? I did not see any of you trying to question the Debt Limit then. You were happily voting to deregulate everything and fund the ridiculous wars. It sure was okay while you guys were running up the debt.

    Why was it okay to run the economy into the ditch over an 8 year period but not okay to give President Obama 8 years to fix it? Amazing!

  4. Yes, they want a balanced budget amendment that is unbalanced. They want to be able to have a 51% majority to vote on things like Medicare that they do not like but a super majority like the tax code and Pentagon funding and so on. It is crazy like they are. Stop making excuses for the lunatic fringe. They are mal-informed and mal-educated fanatic fringe.

  5. Totally agree. The trickle down economy model has never worked and it will never work in the future since it gives no incentive to invest and the trickle is too small to sustain a thriving middle class. The only way we can get out of this Republican and deregulation caused fiasco is to invest in the future by repairing and investing in infrastructure, education, health care and other things that will make us more competitive in the world markets. The way to do that is to have investment in scientific research by the government. As anyone with half a brain knows, it is the government research that gives the private sector the basis on further investment in R&D and manufacturing. It always boggled my mind to see the conservative Republicans vote against their own interest. They should be celebrating the single payer health care idea since it will give them a long term gain in productivity, less cost of healthcare overall because of preventive medicine and early diagnosis, less stress on the work force and a myriad of other benefits not to mention the religious (since most are some kind of Christian denomination) advantage of following the teachings of their religion, being your brother's keeper. By the way, post WWII the percentage of debt to GDP was 120%, it is now between 70 and 80% so the scare tactics of the right wing lunatics should be taken as just that. Scare tactics.

    1. Leighton,

      You don't have to be a member, but you do need to fill in the information to gain access to INOTV.

      You gain access by filling in your information here

      Best,
      Jeremy

  6. Debt driven inflation without wage and employment growth equals Stagnation, and will continue for at least a decade because existing debts can only be fully serviced with new debts. The inflation of commodities is limited by the demand factor, but the influence of demand fades as monopolies and cartels get stronger. I think hyperinflation is unlikely in this decade due to the unprecedented global economic interconnections. Wage erosion as a ratio to the cost of living will continue orderly as the vast majority of debt is serviced by the middle-class and the shortfalls are serviced by new debt. If spending were actually cut to balance budgets, we would see the ugly head of deflation take the drivers seat. As pension and health care obligations reach its demographic peak, it will probably be a turning point of inflation to deflation, since the obligations and cost of living will be overwhelming to the tax base by then. The risk of younger generations losing their motivation to work will increase as the rewards decrease. As economic opportunity and rewards fade, a new look on 'work to live' rather than 'live to work' will take hold in our society.

  7. You make sense... I was predicting $15 K and 18% consumer interest. Inflation will be good for the bad mortgages.... Kind of like 1974? Gas has not doubled yet like 74 so your $6.00 gas seems realistic.. Get ready to make some fictitious money..Looks like we may have a bit of a tech boom. Since the knowledge base is doubling, we will be ok if we can use that knowledge. If the idiots of the world can just slow down the population growth a teeny bit... Going green is having less people on the planet but no one in this generation is preaching that. More sewage processing plants is not the answer.

  8. Lorenzo: Excellent post concerning the Tea Party. Yet, you watch mainstream media, and the demonize the Tea Party as a bunch of whack jobs. Most of these people don't have the answers, but they do know we spend to much as a government. Look, about 50% of all jobs now are Federal jobs. Don't you think over say, the next 10 years, we should cut that figure by 25% and start investing in Capatalism again. It is not a perfect system, and yes, we will always have poor people, but this is the path where the American Dream was made manifest, not through the governement.

    Grace and Peace

    Thomas

  9. Don Wong: I agree with you. However, I do not think we are far off from the riots, chaos and ANARCHY. If the markets
    crash, and government entitlements are mitigated and abated in some cases, there is a segment of America that will pillage and plunder neighborhoods and small business to get what they need to survive. There will be an underground network eventually of law abiding citizens that will provide commerce in order to survive. I guess I can say good bye to me 401K and other investments.

    This scenario seems laughable to some, but we have reached the limit in our society is who we can help. #1 We can no longer help the world. Private donations fine, but the government cannot be giving out billions to other countries. #2 Hard to say because I am pro military and strong forces but it's time to bring our troops home in most areas. We have troops scattered across the globe. We are the peacekeepers. #3 We have to close our borders. This illegal immigration problem is choking our economy. I know all about the argument against it and I am sick of it. We will take the jobs that were taken away from us. It might take time to adjust, but we have no choice, so get used to it some of those that are spoiled Crabby Appleton to the core. #4 Cut spending of silly programs that are a waste #5 Cut fraud or let the private sector run some of these programs and it may cut off the head of the snake.

    The bottom line, and many feel the same as I........I am sick of it. I am an American, but feel like an idiot. Am embarrassed to all myself one in the face of our political debacle. I am a peacekeeper, but I can tell you there are many regular joes who love this country that will fight for it, and are ready to do so. This is serious stuff.

  10. The only difference between what is happening now to your country, and what happened to Cuba when Castro took over is that there is no difference. Castro made sure that every law he wanted passed in Cuba suited his "liberal" left wing party, irrespective of what happened to the Cuban people. And look what happened to them and to Cuba. It's not so far away that you can't see what happened, disaster, for years and years. So, what's new. Take a look at what's happening to your country, take off the blinkers, open your eyes, it may not be too late, but I think that's also fantasizing. What do you have against supporting American citizens?, you're doing it for illegal aliens, and you're playing at being the big daddy of countries that hate you !!!!! It's a sin to allow your politicians to lie and deceive you with their excuses for not doing what is good for your country and to hell with politics. Save the lives of your own sons and daughters from all the irrrational madness and murdering, fighting to save what?

  11. If market was running on chart "brothers" than i mean everyone would make profit because there are tons and tons of websites and chart analysts out there that shows you what the market is doing and will do and trust me out of 100% only 20% is been true... its not charts its how you follow the market.. chart is only an indicator... follow the charts when you have no choice/ no option on finding the fundamentals of a particular stock.

  12. Isn't raising the debt ceiling all about paying for past splurges like two wars that weren't even in the budget until 2009? People are hysterical about the county's debt now, but where was the outrage when the Iraq war was funded under-the-table with a wink and credit card for six years? The US military spending is out of control but somehow is a off-limits for discussion.

  13. Our debt will grow and grow and one day, Obama will see himself in the mirror and say i am naked. Then there will be riots, chaos, and it will be time to move to Canada. But I recommend moving there now.

  14. Neil - no one will lend to us - US dollars go up in price big!!!!

    I hope I can pick up some 15% US Bonds like in Ronald Reagan time - I think this is good, If you have money. What I and many more do not like is 1% on bank CDs. End it now or we will let the tea party change us. They seem to have it in for the fed....

  15. I saw a graph of the USA year by year Federal receipts and Federal income and roughly the figures were
    2007 receipts 2,700 billions and expenditure 2,900 billions
    2011 receipts 2,500 billions and expenditure 3,700 billions
    No country or individual can continue with this sort of behaviour
    One Senator was reported as saying that every year for the last 17 years the debt level has been increased.
    But now it looks like the existing debt cannot be made any bigger.
    Receipts must be more than expenditure so the politicians must cut expenditure
    and increase receipts - this is going to be very painful for everyone - perhaps Senators and Representatives can set an example and vote themselves a pay decrease of 25 % until the country gets back to balancing expenditure with receipts

  16. A President can only veto a bill that comes acreoss his desk from CONgress. The Constitution says all spending bills will originate in the House. The GOP can't even agree with each other. Speaker Boehner has no control as the Speaker over his own party. He is letting first year Reps. dictate policy to him...all 23 of them. They claim they have a mandate. Missing something here because they won back the house, not the Senate and presidency too!

  17. I am from Spain and I think the US problem is the same as the problem we have had in Spain for the past 7 years: THE PRESIDENT.
    We are an small Country compared with the US and smaller since people voted the actual president.
    Of course the problem is ECONOMICS, BUT THE POLITICIANS ARE MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE, ALL THEY WANT IS MAINTAIN THEIR JOBS. IF THE US ECONOMY COLLAPSES THEY WILL "COLLAPSE" ALSO.
    I am sure everything will be solved in the best way possible, best way for the RULERS. They will be the heros until the next crisis.

  18. US-Debt crises are never seriouse,US economy is the unique economy in the World-Wild, cheque NY Times of today July,29 as this is completely a political crises & not the Debt crises...Thanks

  19. The Tea Party people just want a balanced budget Amendment. If you or I wrote checks on an empty account like the Government has done we would go to prison. We are expected to stay within our finances, why not them? The Tea baggers are mostly right thinking people who are looking out for the future of our children (How irresponsible to saddle our kids and grand kids with this much wasteful extravagance & debt.) It is the public lack of understanding and resolve that has allowed our representatives (spelled servants) to get us where we are now. It is also our lack of initiative that prompts us to do little more than wring our hands and offer some critical notion about way-ward government, instead of supporting the ideals of founding government. i.e. we have no one to blame but ourselves. BUT IT IS NOT TO LATE! WORK AS HARD FOR YOUR COUNTRY AS YOU DO FOR THE MARKET AND WE WILL TURN THIS AROUND. Never expect anyone, even your own Representatives to handle your business as well as you do. Stay involved!

  20. Look it's simple.... A deadlock provides an instantaneous balanced budget....
    Has to be good for the dollar.... If nothing else...
    It will show the world that we have the ability to recover.. even if it is by non gov action...
    (as intended by the constitution)

    After 6-months to a year of this the Dems will pitch Obama overboard and vote with the republicans to eliminate everything Obama has done and eliminate 50% of the gov's spending.... Then you can expect a primary fight for the democratic presidential nomination....

    From my lips to gods ears....

  21. Actually debt has been this bad before. At the end of WWII, the debt was around the same size as a percentage of GDP, but we were in a growth period thanks to progressive policies that started in 1933 (at the exact bottom of the Great Depression) and enhanced in 1937 - 1939. Because we were in a growth phase and we had strong national income, the debt was reduced from about 100% of GDP to only 25% of GDP. Reagan reversed that with Supply Side economics, which redirected wealth from supporting economic growth to supporting asset growth instead. Reagan's presidency was very similar to Harding's in that respect. The result both in the 20's and the 80's was that the middle class shrank even as the stock market grew. The course reversed itself temporarily when Clinton raised taxes and passed other progressive policies, but then things got back on the Reagan track with 8 years of Bush Jr. The cause of the current situation is very similar to the cause of the great depression; debt financing and asset growth were no longer able to hide the loss of a middle class. When the debt unwinds, we go through pain. The problem can only be resolved by bringing back the middle class.

  22. Its all a shell game. The whole world economy is currently funded by debt. The market is going to hiccup in he short term but will rebound
    and go parabolic with inflation. All that digitized money will have to find a home and the chinese government who no longer buy American debt will finally invest in the stock market to find a return on their money. The Dow is going to 16k plus but a gallon of gas will cost $6. We have to inflate out of this. Short term we will see 11680 or so and then rally in the teeth of a gale and disbelief, with talking heads wondering how this can be. Similar to the rally we just had.

  23. I'm in the process of becoming a day trader. I have my eyes set on several options: medical, energy(green), tech, manufactoring, and retail. How good will my portfolio perform if I go moderate to high risk. I'm new to the game. I entertain constructive advice.

    Thanks,

  24. Congress will fail us again because of the actions in the Senate, the Executive Branch, the Progressive Republicans and, to a lesser degree, the Tea Party Republicans but only because they have not defined the what the issue is mostly about, which is the debt.

    To Democrats, being able to freely spend all they want is their lifeblood, while the RINOS spend because of their "Goody Two Shoes" mentality.

    That they will eventually pass the increase in the debt limit, there is no doubt. However, this will not save our AAA credit rating because there will be no real reduction in the debt and that is the main trigger for Moody and S & P. As Porky Pig would say, Di Di di de, that's all folks. 🙂

  25. UNLESS THE PRESIDENT TAKES WORLD MEASURES WITH A VETO NOW NOT WAIT UNTIL THEY HASH OVER SOME CORNY DEAL AND MAKE THE PRESIDENT LOOK DESPERATE. VETO NOW AND HAVE THE TIME TO PUT TOGETHER A PLAN TO ENCORPORATE SOME TAXES AND OTHER LESS EXPENSES. START WITH THE SPACE PROGRAM, SECOND LESS FUNDS NEEDED TO FEED THE WAR IN AFGH AND IRAQ. STOP HELPING ALL OTHER PROBLEMS IN THE WORLD AND HELP AMERICANS TO GET THE JOBS AND ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK.. WITH THE ADDED TIME THAT HAS BEEN PUT FORWARD. HE CAN NOW PUT HIS BEST FOOT FORWARD TO GET THE BEST BRAINS IN THE COUUNTRY TO GET A SOLUTION TO MOVING THE EXONOMY IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. I HAVE MANY SOLUTIONS BUT KNOWONE LETS ME TELL THE US AND CANADA NEW WAYS TO BOOST PRODUCTION IN FACTORIES. AS WAS DONE IN THE SECOND WORLD WAR. CHINA DOES NOT PUT OUT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO HELP OTHER PROBLEMS IN THE WORLD. THE US IS NOTED FOR HELPFUL HANDS BUT THIS MUST STOP FOR A YEAR OR SO. TO GET OUT OF TROUBLE.. ANDREWS METHODS CAN WORK IF SOMEONE WANTS TO HEAR ME.

  26. its a sad day and week and month for america to have this circus continue through july and into august and future times. the president should have enough leadership to veto the available money needed to stay through his election time say 3 trillion or the needed funds to calulate one year from now to correct the math to bring some stability to the white house; and the U.S. ECONOMY. HE SHOULD SHOW LEADERSHIP AND KNOW THIS IS A WORLD WAR SITUATON THAT NEEDS TO BE DEALT WITH IN A STERN WAY WITH HARSH MEASURES.

  27. its a sad day and week and month for america to have this circus continue through july and into august and future times. the president should have enough leadership to veto the available money needed to stay through his election time say 3 trillion or the needed funds to calulate one year from now to correct the math to bring some stability to the white house; and the U.S. ECONOMY. HE SHOULD SHOW LEADERSHIP AND KNOW THIS IS A WORLD WAR SITUATON THAT NEEDS TO BE DEALT WITH IN A STERN WAY WITH HARSH MEASURES.

  28. Hi Adam!

    What is ging to happen with the debt?

    We will increase it until no one will lend to us and then we will default!

    Be afraid - Very afraid!

    Keep up the good work.

    Neil

  29. Moments befor the default both parties will miraculously come together, each with their own victory, The stock market will rally a bit, then we will fall into the worst depression in history. The parties are just trying to be the less blamed party for the coming depression.

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