Hello traders everywhere, Adam Hewison here co-founder of MarketClub with your 1 p.m. market update for Thursday the 8th of September.
It's showtime.
Tonight at 7 PM (EST), all eyes will be focused on President Obama and his speech on creating new jobs in America. This is probably one of the most important speeches he will ever give and could mean the difference between keeping or losing his job in November.
So what will this mean to the markets?
So far, President Obama's words have not helped the markets in the past. It remains to be seen what is going to happen to gold, the equity and futures markets after the president's speech.
We will get an early indication as to how the markets interpret President Obama's make or break speech during after hours trading and in the futures markets.
As always, we will rely on our Trade Triangle technology.
Now, let's go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70
We are going to stick with our remarks from yesterday for the S&P 500 index. Of course no one knows for sure what the president is going to say tonight which could have a major impact when trading resumes tomorrow. The pattern in this market is not a positive one. The Trade Triangles are in a longer-term negative mode. We believe that this market is going to resume its downward trend. Long-term traders should continue to maintain short positions or be out of the market completely and in a cash position. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines waiting for either a buy or sell signal based on our Trade Triangle technology.
--------
SILVER (SPOT)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85
Silver, so far is putting in a very good performance for the day. It would appear that Silver is being looked at as a precious metal again. As we mentioned before Silver has a Jekyll and Hyde personality based on if traders are thinking that Silver is (1) a precious metal, or (2) is it an industrial metal? The Ying and Yang character of this market is sometimes confusing to many novice traders. We expect this market to encounter resistance around $43.20 an ounce. Intermediate and longer term traders should maintain long positions in this market with appropriate stops.
-------------
GOLD (SPOT)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85
The lack of any further downside pressure today in this bull market has kept the bulls hopes alive for an eventual move to $2,000. Of concern to us is the negative engulfing line for gold which we discussed and was confirmed yesterday. With our long-term and intermediate term trade triangles the uptrend is still intact and should head higher. Certainly $1900 is the resistance level for gold at the moment. Support comes in around the $1800 area and extends all the way down to $1750. Looking at the market visually it would appear as though we have possibly put in a double top. This will only be confirmed with a close below the $1750 level. Intermediate and long-term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
-------------
CRUDE OIL (OCTOBER)
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70
So far today the $90 a barrel has proven to be resistance on the upside in the October Crude Oil contract. What is also disturbing is the fact that the Williams % R is setting up for a negative divergence to the downside, but it's to early to tell. We will need to have more data to confirm this move. A negative divergence on the Williams % R indicator is as follows: the market makes a new rally high, yet the Williams % R does not follow. This technical situation is also exacerbated by the fact that crude oil is at the top of its Donchian trading channel. Our Trade Triangles are for the moment mixed, indicating a lack of any serious long-term trend. With our monthly Trade Triangle still in a negative mode, we expect that crude oil will continue to move in a sideways manner much like it did for most of August. The longer-term monthly Trade Triangle must be given more weight than either the daily or weekly Trade Triangles.
-------------
DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
Today, we want to watch and see how this index closes. We would view a close over the 76.10 level as a positive indication that this market wants to go higher. All of our Trade Triangles are in a positive mode and we expect that this market will continue to build strength to go higher from current levels. The index is heavily overbought on the Williams %R indicator, however that does not mean it cannot go higher. As we have mentioned before the monthly Trade Triangles are perhaps the most powerful for setting the longer-term trends.
-------------
REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70
We are still not convinced that this index is ready to move higher. We would view a lower close for the day as a potential negative, indicating that this market can pull back even further. Certainly there is good resistance in this index around the 343 level. We would not be surprised to see this market pullback to the 325/326 area in the near-term. With a score of + 60 we recommend trading this market using the Williams % R indicator, and the Donchian Trading Channels. Our bias is towards inflation in the future, but we will rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology to point the way when the time is right. We are expecting to see more of a two-way market in this index in the next several days. Intermediate and short term traders should be out of the market and on the sidelines at the present time.
---------------
As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
---------------
IS PERSONAL COACHING RIGHT FOR YOU?
Give us a call today at 877–219–1482 for a free consultation and see if personal coaching is right for you. The number again is 877–219–1482.
But first, watch my personal message to you about one-on-one coaching:
http://www.marketclubcoaching.com/now/
This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub, I'll see you tomorrow, right here, same time, have a great trading day.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
Interesting move in the dollar. In my opinion the market is trying to establish equilibrium between the two big dogs - US and Germany -. It makes sense to take down the cost of the import dependent US economy by bidding up the dollar, while helping Germany´s export machine by taking down the euro. China and Asia are junior partners in this game of old dogs, they need to focus on building up their own internal economies and consumption.
Obama also falls back on the Liberal Plea of more money for education. Why?? His own Department of Education already states on its website "The United States pay more for education than most other countries (bucks per student), and gets less in return. They are already questioning the amount of resources versus achievement in the schools. As well they might be. Take Wisconsin as an example, the Taxpayers are already spending over $210,000 per classroom per year. This is a little more that $1,100 per day. The reason we have funding issues is not that we are paying too little. It is because the schools spend way to much money in non contact positions. The Dollars Spent per Classroom Day represents what we taxpayers are giving for the education of kids in their factory setting. Private industry has proven time and again that they can provide superior education for fewer dollars. Before asking for more, how about defending the largess currently being given.
First Impression of Obama's Jobs Plan is been there, done that. He himself has stated there is no such thing as a shovel ready job. It feels nice to say we are going to reward those employers who hire workers who have been out of work for over 1 year. But if the reward is there, why would I want to hire somebody who is working now and looking for a better job, or somebody who has recently lost their job? Obama is famous for his not even trying to anticipate the unintended consequences of his actions. Saying that this is paid for is a lie. He wants to Congressional Super Committee to come up with an extra Trillion to pay for this. Wait a minute, aren't they already working on a stretch objective? So he spends all of the bucks in the next year on short term jobs, and then there is no long term benefits to pay for the jobs.
This President doesn't know what he's doing. Don't give him an out based on race. He wanted the job. He said he would make things better. He has made things worse. He's been talking about jobs for 3 years and hasn't done one thing. Don't blame it on Republicans. His Democratic base continues to push their liberal agenda and he just eats it up. I'm tired of people, particularly with the President, using the race card to repel real criticism. He's a President. The job itself lends itself to criticism. If things were going well, everybody would be carrying him on their shoulders. Well, it's not. He has failed to focus on the right things at the right time and he has failed to do ANYTHING to correct it. He has created class warfare and he cannot even lead in getting his own Party to tone down the rhetoric (and in fact, he's guilty of it himself and did it again in last night's speech). Stop giving this President a "bye" because he's the first black President. If he can't stand the heat (or lead on any level), then get the hell out of the kitchen (from another famous Democrat who was criticized too).
Obama has no voice - unlikely that markets will react. This guy is just another guy.
He has no redeeming character. Markets will continuw on a neg slope until he is booted out.. Just too arrogant to be in the WH. He is not worthy of the recognition of President.
Permit me to share a thought. I think its time we stop blaming everyone who opposes the President and his policies as being racist. The time for this kind of blame game is over. His policies have failed, not because of his race, but because he has chosen the road of Keynesian policies that have failed to work in the past and are failing now. Last jobs report=0 new jobs created. Now, he asks for another stimulus which he refers to as a jobs bill. But, this bill is nothing more than the same Keynesian policies all over again.
Has anyone else wondered if some of the pressure on Obama comes from the side of America we hate to acknowledge? The racism that our society is still trying to outgrow? Recalcitrant Republicans seem to think if they're stubborn enough to balk all Obama initiatives, this "dark side" including the Ku Klux Clan will help them oust the President. Thoughts?
Dollar rallies from cyclical lows tend to be quite forceful and the dollar has been muddling along a low for months now, seemingly gathering ammo for a rally. This could be the mommy of all short squeezes since about everything and everyone plus their dog seems to be short the greenback. We shall see.
The price of US govt. debt is currently at a 140-year high which reflects the extreme deflationary environment in a world swimming in oversupply, overcapacity and a totally endless supply of cheap labor. Obviously it makes no sense to accumulate anything that money can buy, better to conserve the high-priced cash and wait for prices of what it buys to fall.
"So far, President Obama’s words have not helped the markets in the past."
Really Adam?
Does anybody choose to remember this (Note the date):
FOXNews.com
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
President Obama said Tuesday that now is a good time for investors to buy stocks if they focus on the big picture.
Markets more than doubled since that little tip
Whaa Whaa Whaa Blah Blah Blah
Stick to the technicals please.
And Maybe Look at the long term 30 year or even 50 year or 100 year charts once in a while. Then step back and really think for once.
Realities.
More importantly the NFL kicks off at 7:30 pm.
Hi Adam,
You have been talking a lot about the dollar against a basket of currenies. Today it rose above the $76.10 mark you talked about so looks a good buy. Do you have a specific US Dollar ETF which you think is good for tracking/investing in this area?
thanks
Tristan
Tristan,
UUP is an ETF that tracks the Dollar Index. Here’s a link to the chart within MarketClub.
http://club.ino.com/members/charts/?s=PACF_UUP
Best,
Jeremy
The president's speech is scheduled for 7:00 PM EDT (not EST).
No one in the east is currently on EST (Eastern Standard Time).
Daylight Savings Time ends on Nov. 6th. At that point, Standard time
goes into effect. You remember "spring forward, fall back". So until
we "fall back" you'll be on EDT in the east, CDT in the midwest,
MDT in the Rockies, and PDT in the west.
Obama will keep his job in November for at least another year.