Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your market update for Friday, the 23rd of September.
I believe it has begun... A total loss of confidence in the markets and zero political leadership in the world.
So what's ahead?
For traders who are not in the loop, it's going to be rough ride! For traders who are informed, it's going to be a bonanza! We plan to make the most of it using both our experience and our market proven Trade Triangles.
It is impossible for any politicians to escape the reality of what we shared with you yesterday. The economic cycles that Kondratieff discovered and later wrote about, are the irrefutable laws of economic expansion (good times) and economic contraction (hard times) of a capitalistic economy. I don't have to remind you which part of the Kondratieff cycle we are in now.
Yesterday, markets around the world voted and the vote reflected a huge sign of no confidence for the global equity markets.
Are we all connected? The answer is yes, now more than ever.
Billy Joel sang in his 1982 hit Goodnight Saigon "… and we will all go down together". It looks to me like that's what is happening now in all the markets.
Key level to watch in the SP500 index today 1123.53. A close below that level should be a signal for aggressive traders to short this market for the weekend.
Now let's go to the 6 major markets we track and update every trading day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
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S&P 500 INDEX
Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF's: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Futures Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 90
Key level to watch today on the downside is 1120. A close below this level represents a new low close for this index. The large technical flag formation that we have discussed in previous posts was completed with yesterday's market action. This also ignited an intermediate term Trade Triangle sell signal at 1136.07 for this index. We are looking for this market to continue on the defensive for the next several weeks. Perception is everything and investors are in a panic mode with the state of the economy and their portfolios. Short, Intermediate and Long-term traders should continue to be short this index.
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SILVER (SPOT)
Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long AGQ) (Short ZSL)
Futures: Futures Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trend = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 100
Profit taking and long exhausted margin call selling was the name of the game yesterday. The negative Engulfing line we outlined three weeks ago for silver is now in full force in this market. An intermediate term sell signal was flashed four days ago with a negative weekly Trade Triangle coming in at $39.29. This market is heavily oversold, however it needs to regroup before we see any possibility of a rally. Cyclically, we are near a cyclic low. We want to continue to monitor this market. Only Long term traders should remain in long positions with appropriate stops.
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GOLD (SPOT)
Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF's:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures: Futures: Futures Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 70
The gold market came under massive liquidation and profit-taking again yesterday. Our intermediate Trade Triangle received a sell signal at $1762.49 before the big drop. This was the first signal we have had on our weekly Trade Triangle since July 13th when we had a buy signal at $1557.86. This trade resulted in a profit in excess of $200 an ounce. Only our long-term indicator is positive on this market at the moment. Gold today hit a 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1697. Our next level of support is $1645, which is a 61.8% retracement. We are measuring from the lows that were seen in early July to the highs that were seen in early September. This market looks to be on the defensive for the balance of the week into next week. Only long-term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
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CRUDE OIL (NOVEMBER)
Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures: Futures Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 100
The crude oil market plunged below the $80 a barrel level overnight confirming that the trend is clearly down for this commodity. The downward spiral underscores just how powerful our longer-term Trade Triangle technology is. As you may recall we are tying the crude oil market with the equity markets. As the equity markets go, so does crude oil at the moment. The theory is lower equity prices, means lower consumption of oil. It's not important whether we agree or disagree with that statement. What is important is how the market is acting. Pay attention to the MACD that is beginning to lose momentum and could be rolling over to the downside if we have any more negative closes. Short, Intermediate and Long-term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.
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DOLLAR INDEX
Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short)
Futures: Futures Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
We remain positive on this index. Longer-term this market looks poised to move much higher. This index is coming from a large energy field that is capable of carrying it much higher, possibly up to the 80.00 - 81-00 area. Short, Intermediate and Long-Term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long UCO) (Short CMD)
Futures: Futures Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = - 100
With all of our Trade Triangles negative, we expect to see this indicator erode further. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodity index all but collapsed yesterday with the sharp downward move in oil and other commodities. We have been bearish on this index, putting aside any bias we had toward inflation. Clearly the action is negative and at this point there is no reason to try to catch a falling knife. Remember the trend is your friend, and we expect the trend to continue until our Trade Triangles inform us that the trend has changed. Short, Intermediate and Long-Term traders should maintain short positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
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As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
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This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub and I’ll see you tomorrow, right here with my weekend wrap. Have a great trading day.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
I'm concerned with gold and silver, and specifically trading in GLD and SLV. There were plenty of +90 and +100 days in each, and indications of long term 'buys' along the way. I'm sure that not everyone got in as an intermediate or long term trader and rode the gains... $200 in gold for example.
So, as a 'long term' trader/investor can anyone tell me at what levels those monthly triangle turn 'long term' negative? I'm currently holding from about 1750 and 39 and not feeling very intelligent about my entry points.
thanks,
Jack
The dollar and the Euro will both collapse,just a matter of time.
Must-read from Goldman’s David Kostin
Correlation of market, sector, and intra-sector returns has soared to record levels as macro themes continue to drive equity market performance. .......
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-correlations-record-low-mutual-fund-cash-soaring-dispersion-recipe-redemption-driven-dis
I've signed up for INO TV three times and still can't get on. What do I have to do?
Markets are wild and volatile, but still very rational - at the end of the day so to speak. It´s interesting that CRB hit a cyclical high at the same time, I think to a day at the end of April, that USD made a cyclical low. Also SPX had a cyclical high at the same time, but unlike CRB it has made two pretty serious attempts to regain that high.
The dollar´s rampage has already wiped out year to date gain of CRB and some commodities are practically at pre-QE2 level. I expect this process to continue. How far and how long is difficult to say. The dollar is not to be underestimated. It could very well try for the top of the trading range of the last years (circa 75-90). It should take say 6-12 months but presently things seem to move very fast so who knows, it could happen before year´end. If the Euro crashes, the dollar could go even higher, to say 100-110.
The dollar´s rise is likely to hit U.S. stocks quite hard, especially the DOW multinationals which get to book fewer dollars back home as revenue and profits, resulting in falling stock prices. Many U.S. companies should benefit though from falling prices of imported goods and raw materials.
There is one glaring anomaly in this topping-bottoming-simultaneously scenario I described and that is gold. It´s a commodity and horribly overpriced as such because it thinks that it´s some sort of higher form of commodity. Which is why it didn´t turn down with the rest of commodities at the end of April but instead rallied about 30%, reckless behavior for which it will be harshly punished, I´m sure. IMO it needs to hurry down to $1200 right away to get in line with the commodities complex and then follow the herd further down.
S&P 500 formed H&S pattern and downtrend would be severe if the current levels are to be broken.
They will tell ...buy our service.
What is the name of the game? If not.
Friends,
Movement of commodities as well of Gold and Silver provides warning signal for etreme volatality and unpredicted fall in all financial markets, situation is far even worst, then what we think, or allow.
it is batter to keep away from market
Rasesh Shukla
What is someone who lives in the hills with a spotty satellite connection supposed to do? I can't watch your videos. All of your updates are 12 hours or more late. I guess I'm just out of the loop- an unimformed sheep. Your sales pitch should come with a warning: IF YOU ARE AN AVERAGE AMERICAN WITH A PIDDLY BROKERAGE ACCOUNT LESS THAN 100,000 WE DON'T CARE ABOUT YOU - HOWEVER WE WILL TAKE YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY FOR A SERVICE THAT WILL PROBABLY RETURN LESS THAN BUYING LOTTERY TICKETS. Just in case there is somebody like me out there- you will be better served buying lemons and selling lemonade. The deck is stacked- if they are so smart- why are they selling "trade triangles" Same-0 Same-0 From now on- I'm following my own instincts. Any chance I can get a pro-rated refund, Hahahahahaha- about as good as having a phone call returned.
let go ahead
Adam
I have been a big fan of your service and website for some time. Today is a good example of why I do not join Market club. 1. By signing up I get loads of spam I don't want. 2. In your last 2 1:00 updates you noted that Fridays close would be down, Cause "No one would want to go home long over the weekend". Don't look now but all the Markets where up! I listened to you much to my regret! I did not sell yesterday after listening to the 1:00 update. I saw my short on the S&P Go from up $12,000 to selling it at the close today up $6,900. I can do that well on my own!
Best wishes
Mark
Hi...could you tell me what you mean when you say long slv and short the etf slv....I thought they were one in the same.
thank you,
David