The Battle Continues Between the Bulls and the Bears - Weekend Video Update

8 thoughts on “The Battle Continues Between the Bulls and the Bears - Weekend Video Update”

1. Bulls seem to have pretty high hopes for fodder from the FED, but I think they´ll be disappointed. Bernanke will IMO just say that they´re monitoring the situation, the economy is slow and that now it´s up to the WH/Congress. It´ll be a rerun of his last statement.

   The main reason for this is that the FED is practically bankrupt. It´s leveraged almost 60 times against its own capital, which is worse than Lehman Brothers. Once interest rates start to rise the value of its portfolio will plunge, rendering it technically insolvent fairly quickly and in turn forcing it to sell a good chunk of the portfolio and thus contracting the money supply.

   Anyway, QE3 would be sheer madness now as lagging inflation is still working its way into the economy from QE2 and to some extent even from QE1. So, in view of their extreme leverage they´d just be digging their own grave by further fueling inflation and rising interest rates.

2. Greece is saved once again at 3:00 pm and then 3 hours later....ruh roh!

   http://i249.photobucket.com/albums/gg201/O71XV9/RuhRoh-1.jpg

3. Adam,
   I always find your commentaries informative and educational. It helps me in my decision-making. I joined Market Club recently and am using Trade Triangles for futures markets. Can you please include more commodities in your regular updates? I'd value your input. Many thanks.

4. A very key cycle of 1440 days from the Life High of the Dow 14198 is due as a competion of a high cycle at 16:40 Eastern on Tuesday 09/20/2011. Will be interesting to see how
   the market response to the completion of this time frame.

5. The Dollar rockets back up after profit-taking.

   I expect its rally off recent cyclical low to be a dominating factor in the next 6-12 months. It could go as high as 85-90, around where it has topped four times in the past five years. This would in turn correct USD-denominated and way oversupplied commodities markets and overissued U.S. equity markets.

   It´s absolutely imperative to take down the cost of economic input from commodities, energy and raw materials, which is cramping the U.S. economy, hurting small business (which employs most of the work force) and consumer purchasing power and spending. In an economy that is about 70% dependent on consumer spending, this high cost of economic input has led to rising unemployment. It´s a vicious circle and an intolerable situation that the market is likely to reverse through a rising dollar.

6. "The Trader", above makes an interesting point. I am new to all this, "The Trader" is referencing a weekly chart which is over the 200MA. The 200 MA on the "daily" however is below to 200 MA and a 78% Fib. retracement would be 2 bucks over the 200 MA which probably will not happen, or short lived if it does? I would enjoy the few bucks in the mean time. I think (best guess) is that the monthly MACD (crossing now) appears set to push everything (75% of all stocks) down.

   In short, I think I agree with "The Trader" both short term and long term, I am hoping for a bounce and will cash out (or buy an inverse fund) when the daily stochastic crosses... and watching your triangles & reports!!!

   A true understanding of the various time frames eludes me.... Is there a video or training available that will "splain" it to a dumb country boy?

   Sam

7. Hey guys, it's "...counter trend rallies" not rally's.

   As regard market conditions I can report a surprise gain and great success with an impromptu planting of butternut squash. I will include that in my preparedness list for what goes into the root cellar next to my hardened bunker in the back yard under the neutron bomb resistant water tank. If gold is denser than lead then a nice layer of coin and bullion on the roof under the dirt and cement should make things extra safe. I should drill a well as that would make me the only source of almost potable water save lake Michigan.

   ABAT the Chicom Li battery maker has gone flat and stayed down for a while but that kind of power source with charging through solar panels will be a decent lower level power source. Makers of higher tech products of all types usable in a SHTF situation should be considered for personal if not market investment reasons. Lead shot for shotguns is now being sold from Connies Components in Washington state at "only $33" a 25 lb. bag. I can recall the rise in lead shot and ammo prices over the last five years. It was high at $22 before. Your lead shot can go on top and along side your bunker for radiation proofing. Matchlock muskets are easy to make and will provide sufficient firepower with assorted lead shot when your property is attacked by scavenging hordes of unemployed brokers and starving welfare rabble.

   This is a good time to consider silver as a trading mechanism. This is easily done with offerings such as breakable squares and rounds from Northwest Territorial Mint.

   Look at the Apocalypse for readings on likely inhibiting factors such as Middle Eastern wars and the formation of new or re-aligned common Market type organizations as weak nations spend themselves and their neighbors into potential or real debt. This would appear to be the case with the Euro family of nations. Most of the nations of western Europe are morally degenerate and getting worse. They will face internal Islamic uprisings and invasions in the decades ahead which tends to comport with prophesy. Survivors or surviving (sort of) nations will see individuals and families holding out in Injun territory or in deep underground governmental/corporate bunkers and hiding places. This latter group will wind up buying and selling the souls of men in something of a one world society that develops among the dejected degenerate survivors. The rulers will be eatin' them kwitches in comfort while the rabble is hoping the latest catch in the rat trap isn't too radioactive to eat.

8. Dear Adam,

   Thank you so much for the continous update, really effective., but I would like to add one thing and it is regarding the S&P 500 Index where in my view the drop to 1100 was a significant buy opportunity which I'm sure contradicts many fundamentalist and even some market technician, but there is one signal only that rarely occurs in a chart, that is considered a strong buying opportunity and reversal signal.

   As we all know there is something called divergences and I'm sure most of the members are aware of the bullish and bearish regular divergences, but what is not most traders might not be aware of is the "Hidden Divergences" which is currrently seen on the S&P 500 Index with teh RSI on both Weekly and Daily in addition to a very important moveing average that we havenent seen a strong break below it was the 200 weeks at 1100 level were the index bounced from that level, while if you went back in 2008 and see how the market when broke the 200 weeks moving average the index dropped around 48%.

   Currently msrket is still above the 200 weeks moving average, which in my view is that the market is still in its long term upside move , and looking from a Dow theory we are still recording higher troughs and higher peaks which is identified as bullish/uptrend market.

   Regards
   The Trader

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