Is It Reversal Time For the Markets?

29 thoughts on “Is It Reversal Time For the Markets?”

1. There's a conflict between "take part profits" and "add to a winning position." It's all a matter of position size and timing. You have to learn to recognize when you are in too deep, when your confidence is too high. Got to develop an "un oh" button when the market moves quickly and massively in your favour. You are lucky, not smart. So float like a butterfly and sting like a bee.
   notes to myself

   If you start with a large enough position - tightly stopped and hedged - you can take 1/3 profits anytime there is an explosive move in your direction. Be wary of big moves! That's the time (like right now in the fall of 2011!)to take part profits because there will likely be a reaction. If the market continues to soar, don't kick yourself, take MORE part profits. Float like a butterfly, sting lika bee

   But if you see a steady but not dramatic improvement in the price over time, you can then add to your position on pullbacks. You can also loosen up the stop (because you can afford it) but adjust the hedge to your greater exposure.

   If the market goes against you right away, just get out period. Take your big hurtful loss fast and thankfully cash in (you can keep, for a time,) your winning hedge to ameliorate the loss.

2. The market is not too 'clumsy'.

3. Ralph- advice worth its weight in gold.

4. Well, market futures are down slightly this morning at 9:10, we'll see if this is the big turnaround...it better be.

5. From notes to myself:

   As a trader you will make mistakes. That's given. Don't trust ANY guru. Don't even trust your own judgement too far. Go in slow, come out fast. Protect yourself at all times by taking part profits when you can, keeping stops, hedging your position with three-months-out options (Jan puts, in the present case) on SPY and/or DIA. Enjoy the game. Don't obsess. Read some poetry. Kiss your loved one on the mouth. Sleep well.

   8-o)

6. For the last, almost three years, the bears have been getting crushed. This time seems no different. Many here, like me, had some short set-ups but its time to punt the football. The dollar will break through 76 soon and keep right on falling. Everything was a fake-out... again.

7. The latest commitment of traders report is saying that the commercials are unloading completely out of the US dollar. It is unlikely that the US Dollar will find support here!

8. Hi

   I am not a member of MC but i do get the updates from Adam and have a look sometimes. i think people who feel they have missed this rally in s&p have themselves to blame. first decide which timeframe you want to trade, if you are taking decisions based on montly trade triangle then you look at them but if you want to trade daily, then daily trade triangle has been up. STICK TO YOUR PLAN

9. Hi Adam.

   I am also concerned about the red monthly triangle turning green and you down-side bias. By Wednesday Angela Merkel will have crushed the red triangle and it will be no-more.

   The Europeans are demonstating the ability to work together despite your comments about them.

   - Re-capitalized banks ........ for sure
   - No ECB involvement .......... means Euro currency will stay high
   - Likely a negotiated increase in the Emergency fund. Not the targeted amount, but up
   - IMF backstop ............. not likely but if necessary they'll contribute
   - France downgrade ...... nobody cares
   - Ireland and Spain are doing okay
   - Italy ..... the Chinese will end up owning them

   If I were to grade these results I'd say it will crush the red monthly triangle

   There will be no downside until the US congress get in the news. Then you get to see a real clown act.

   .

10. We have to wait to hear from Europe... all this optimism could turn into disaster in a matter of 48 hours. I'm not suggesting it will... I'm simply reminding all of us that while the fundamentals of many stocks are ok, the markets are still emotionally driven.

11. stop talking nonsense about politics and stay to the trade triangles. Nowall triangles are green and you say no buy.

12. Hear hear, DGDye!

    I continue to find Adam's daily comments useful because of what I can LEARN from his chart analysis. I use that knowledge plus the personal opinions of other commentators to make my own decision about whether to be long, short or stay out. Its easier to criticise commentators for taking the wrong opinion when you've got the benefit of seeing a few more bars on the right side of the chart, when they didn't during the time the comment was made. Take control of your own destiny and make up your own mind.

    Good luck and good trading.

13. Go Gold!!!!!!!!!!!!!

14. In one week from now, the monthly trade triangle will turn up at a new high in this rally.

15. Adam, what do you have against the stock market going up? Yoy seem really bias to the short side and not simply because of a trade triangle. The bears have been slaughtered. Maybe its the sign of the end. Give up the ghost already so we can begin to move down again.

16. "Imagine the stuff we don’t heard about."

    Haaaaaay! You tawk good... like me!

    I see the market turning down beginning Tuesday, actually.

17. This article had some rather strange comments.

    "A remarkable majority, over 75% said they were, and they do watch events in Europe very closely." Remarkable? Are you kidding? I am surprised that the figure is that low. Are there really that many dunce traders?

    "At this point, Europe is really the tail that wags the dog." No. It IS the dog -- and it is just a matter of time before it bites. And it will remain the dog until a bigger dog arrives (either a meltdown in China or the U.S. debt bomb explodes).

18. I've been trying to decide whether to pull the trigger and sign up for Marketclub. Trade Triangles would be a powerful tool for trading. But the current market moves seem to show that Trade Triangles are backward looking,like so many other technical indicators. Look at the move in Silver, for example, where the Triangles are only gradually turning less negative while Silver has rallied from $30 to $32. Also, it looks like the Triangles don't consider technical trading patterns. Adam sometimes refers to these patterns and his observations are contradictory to the Trade Triangles signals in many instances. If the S&P has rallied back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, shouldn't the Triangles anticipate at least a short term downward bounce and indicate a negative Daily/Weekly signal? Perhaps, I'm expecting too much from Trade Triangles and should really look at it as just another backward looking technical indicator and not a true Buy/Sell signal?

19. Be fair...the idea of the trade triangles is to catch the BIG moves. It's up to each of us to practice proper money management to maximize what we make on those moves. If you blow everything on a choppy market, you won't make anything.

    The triangles are based on probability. If you want certainty, put your money in a bank and get 0.5% interest/year and lose 3.5%/year buying power because of inflation.

    The trade triangles don't do well during transitions, but Adam mentions other indicators that can take over during these times. Generally, however, successful trading is an accretive process, not a windfall. You put the odds slightly in your favour and over time, you make money. If you go for the gusto on every trade, that's gambling, not trading. You will lose.

    Successful traders and trading coaches emphasize that the FIRST thing a successful trader does is take responsiblity for their own actions. If you're still at the stage of blaming someone else for your losses, you're not there yet. In fact, ED Seykota (one of the best traders and trading coaches ever) would argue that you'll never be there because a person predisposed to success looks inward for answers, not outward for blame.

    Cheers

20. Yeah, sooner or later he'll just say "our trade triangles tell us this market is headed higher!". No apologies to all the poor suckers who held short until their balls were busted. Of course, he might be right (i.e. we could drop from here) but even so it's madness to still be telling people to hold shorts over a 10% retracement.

21. Wish I had never seen this web site..

22. I've been following this blog, and for last 3 months, I found he was so much biased for short with confidence like other market nayer! I missed a very good offset rally thanks to him at least for now. Would he say that market finally turn around when it goes over the fib resistance level? I'd like to see what he would say about it later.

23. Agree with u completely lost great amount of money on trade triangle.. i was gonna tell my friends to sign up for market club but now i am backing off

24. Not only massive rally missed, lost good amount in short 😉

25. Trade triangles are at best slow to react. The massive rally has been missed. At some point, this issue needs to be addressed one way or the other.

26. I think you guys have become too emotionally bias. There is probably 100 points of pent up energy in the S&P with this break out, which tells me we could be looking at around 1312 before this run is done.

27. Don't you mean DAVID Cameron?

28. Adam,

    Thanks Adam...
    How come you havent discussed Q4 rally. It's the beginning of a massive end of year rally that propels the major indexes. Stocks and commodities will rally together and treasuries will only fall slightly.

    Your prediction for skf on your week-end update was conflicting. You said the stock was going to turn up and go higher. However, the stock was at -70.

29. Thanks Adam..
    At what point monthly trade triangle will turn into positive? What needs to be S&P cash to get monthly positive trade triangle?

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