Is This Rally For Real?

53 thoughts on “Is This Rally For Real?”

1. You can keep repeating it time and again, but the fact is you provide very specific guidance in your free videos. If you don't stand behind what you state in these videos, why would anyone trust the paid service either!

2. The wisest comment on this series of posts comes from Geoff, who describes the importance and basic strategies of money management. One comment on this, if you are a small investor, your 3% of portfolio value winds up being relatively small, and then when you tack on commissions, and the differences between buy and sell values, you have to make a significantly larger percent profit to make such a system work (for example, if your total portfolio = $20,000, then 3% would be $600 and a 10-15% loss limit would be $60-$75 . . . you really need about $100,000 total investment capital so that your 3% = $3000, then 10-15% is $#300-$450 loss limit).

   What I think happens is that folks with small portfolios tend to put up much higher percentages in any given trade ($3000 = 15% of $20,000 investment capital, two of these trades = 30% of total capital), and this makes them very vulnerable to major losses, especially when the market goes ballistic one way or another.

   I would suggest that trading is something that few people really do well. I have made some very good money by purchasing such things as silver coins and farmland . . . it is generally a little more difficult to rapidly buy and sell them (compared to say hitting the "Enter" button on your computer terminal) and they have tended to hold their value and increase with time. And there is some value in owning land, it certainly is *real*, and good farmland is not going to get cheaper anytime soon.

3. Again --- if we take the time to understand TT's and the system, we will know that it is NOT a system that makes calls on quick turns. But when aligned, the TT's will capture about 75-80% of a longer move in either direction. That is their claim and we can go to ANY chart and check it historically. NO system can predict daily movement in such a volatile market as we've had for 3 months... and it is financial suicide to believe it can.

   Do your homework and be patient for success. Good trading/investing to all!

4. Geoff,

   I’m just learning the many nuances of this trading game. My question is -
   What if the market, or a particular stock for that matter, opens in the morning say 10% under where your overnight stop was placed. Is there anything you can do, other than close out the position at the next day’s market open at 9:30 a.m.? Is there anyway to protect yourself from a significant gap down opening on the following day? If there is, I’d love to find out how to do it.

   Thank you in advance for your help,

   Sunday

5. Robert and Jeremy
   I have real sympathy for you and know how you feel. We have all been there. I am a free member of Market Club at the moment but find their views quite useful.

   My observation on both of your issues is that you might not be using a money management system. Most advisors suggest that money management is probably the most important element of a successful trading plan. I only ever risk up to 3% of my investment capital on anyone trade and always have stop loss positions in place which limit my loss to a max of between 10 and 15% of that trade. I also usually take out half of my trade when I hit my first, modest, profit target and at that point I move my stop loss on the second half to equal the profit, so I can now not make a loss. Thereafter I set a trailing stop loss so that my profit margin is maintained whilst still letting the profits run.

   Hope this has been of help.

6. I agree with the majority of the comments that your trade triangles are crap. You say +100 and the market either goes sideways or down.
   I have subscribed to you $8.95 Market club deal and not made any money. I think you are a scammer.

   1. Nikitas,

      Being that you've only been a member for less than a month how can you say that they are crap? Do you understand how they work? What kind of trader are you, short term, long-term? Knowing what style of trader you are will greatly affect how the Triangles work for you. We're here to help you understand the TT's. Below are some links that will help with this.

      The Trade Triangle rules are listed in the Help Section under “Trade Triangles” Here’s a link to the Help Section and the exact page where they are.

      http://club.ino.com/trading/marketclub-help-section/

      http://club.ino.com/trading/marketclub-help-section/flash-charts/trade-triangles/

      http://club.ino.com/trading/marketclub-help-section/flash-charts/trade-triangles/how-do-i-interpret-the-trade-triangles-when-would-i-enterexit/

      Here’s a tutorial video on how the Trade Triangles work also located in the Help Section.

      http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/12/marketclub-webinar-part-1/

      http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/12/marketclub-webinar-part-2/

      If you need more help feel free to email us
      
      su*****@in*.com
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
      

      Best,
      Jeremy

7. I agree with you Bala. I am a member of Market Club and I learn something new on each daily update. First, I am hear to eduacte myself on trading. However, I did not loss any money but I am disappointed in Adam's continuious rollover on the s&p. Adam was very adamet about the rollerover of the s&p. In addition, Adam never discussed the phnomenon "quarter 4 rally" may be posssible. I will continue to view his updates. But I do think Adam should take a different approach when dealing with bloggers.

8. Good post, Bala. Jesse Livermore and Nicholas Darvas both said humility is key, what works well for one may not for another.

9. Hello Mr Adam
   Not sure about your approach to rebuke people in this forum. It is very easy to criticize and condemn people for pointing fingers at you. But it takes character to stand up and take note of people and their view points. The only way to bring people towards your product is to make them realize how to use it and justify the product with some performance stats and not taking a condescending stance.

10. ojo:
    Sorry but it is not as easy as you make it out to be.
    I am currently a subscriber of Marketclub, but use its signals only as an add-on to my own fundamental and other techniques. It is useful, but I will NEVER follow it blindly.

    Take a look at Netflix. The daily triangles would have whipsawed you in and out of this stock. The daily triangle turned bullish the exact day before the results disappointment (30-40% slump). You would have closed your short at precisely the wrong time.
    I vaguely recall Adam praising Netflix for doing the right thing during his videos. Is that true? Anyway, earnings revisions have gone way south for the stock and analysts are now expecting earnings to halve into 2012.

    I have asked if we can download the historical triangles to do a statistical assessment to gain more confidence in the system. I was told outright this was not made available.
    Meanwhile, note that the PRICE next to the Triangle is just the price when the Triangle was triggered. So you CANNOT even use this price to check if this will work. You need to make adjustments.
    Example: Apple gapped down post results. Daily triangle turned red (of course). Price against the daily triangle was 415.27. You will note that Apple shares NEVER traded at this price on this day. So you CANNOT use this price as the exit price in an audit.

    In any case, anyone who uses only price and volume movements must be prepared for big bummers like the last two weeks. Thankfully, I stayed LONG and just watched the markets and triangles whipsaw.

    As I see it, markets are now getting ahead of themselves. Not sure how many more days it can keep this up, but the short covering phase is over ...and we need to see fundamentals follow-through if we are to see further gains. WHo knows.

    So,now I have got to wonder if I should remain a subscriber or quit and just design my own heuristics. Hmmm...

    1. Jason,

       With your Netflix scenario your using the Trade Triangle's in the wrong time frames. Here's the rules for Equities such as Netflix. Take a look at the chart with the daily Triangles removed and it will give you quite a different outlook on how the Triangles work. If you had followed the rules you have made considerable profits on this stock.

       Equities

       Monthly Triangles determine trend and possible entry points.
       Weekly Triangles determine timing: exits, entries and re-entries.

       The last triangle issued on the monthly chart should always be used to identify the overall trend. You can also use the monthly triangle as a potential entry point if you can get into the market within the last 3 trading days of the signal. Then you are to look at the weekly triangles for possible exit and re-entry points, or entry points if your monthly is in a steady trend.

       Key Rule: always trade with the trend. Make sure your weekly and monthly triangles correspond in direction.

       Cheers,
       Jeremy

11. Lak,

    Thank you for your feedback.

    Please do not be critical of a service that you do not subscribe to and are not a member of. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You have no one else to blame but yourself if you lost money in the market. You probably were not using any kind of money management control on your position. You can try out MarketClub for $8.95. If you can't afford that, then you should not be reading this page or trading as it will cost you a lot more by not learning how to trade properly.

12. It's real ! for the whole global stock market. I am not talking about just US.markets.I believe major stock markets go in herd.
    Look closely at Hang Seng Index did for the last 4-5 weeks ,it hit at the level around (approx.)16000-16250
    which is the strong support when you look at weekly candle stick chart,then it formed a hammer followed
    buy white line which confirmed changing of trend. Now at 20000-21000 level ,it is a short term resistance level,
    I expect Hang Seng and all other markets will pause or go sideway for 2-3 weeks starting by the 1 or 2 of November.

13. Hi Adam,

    At roughly what price on the S&P500 do you expect the monthly trade triangle to finally turn green?

    Also, when the monthly does turn green, are the long-term traders who follow your system (and who are still short) supposed to go long immediately or cover their shorts and go to cash? In other words, is your system a stop and reverse system?

    Thanks for your time!

    1. Valtinho.

       Thanks for your feedback.

       I am amazed at how many comments about our Trade Triangle are coming from none members of MarketClub. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You can try out MarketClub for $8.95. If you can't afford that, then you should not be reading this page or trading as it will cost you a lot more by not learning how to trade properly.

       All the best,
       Adam

14. This is the exact point where reversals can happen. Now everyone believes it's real and wants to puke. Positions are bought back and shorts are covered. You know what happens next.

    I started to buy in lightly today. I might add some shorts tomorrow for a swing trade. The market is soooooo overbought!!! It can stay overbought for a long time but eventually we'll see a pull back. I'd be very surprised if these levels won't be able to be snatched up again in a week.... two weeks at the very longest. That's the best time to buy in because you can set up your stops easier.

    Where in the world would a guy put stops in if you buy in now???? 98% chance you'll be stopped out next week.

15. I was doing fine before I started use TT and watch Adam's video. Just within one month I lost more than half of my profolio by following what he said. I canceled my trial right away. Wish I've never found this website.

    1. Tana,

       Please do not be critical of a service that you do not subscribe to and are not a member of. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You have no one else to blame but yourself if you lost money in the market. You probably were not using any kind of money management control on your position.

       Adam

16. the market does'nt listen to people opinions or trading systems. only prices pays everything else is irreleavant. look and listen to what market is telling you, the rally is real until the market signal it not. the triangle trading system missed this one.

17. Huge rally and the trade triangles are still +70, they will flash a buy signal when it's time to short.
    Get some free charts, support and resistance, trend, volume, and if you're so inclined to do so, rel. strength. That's all you need--and it's free !! These signals are much too slow.

    1. Mike our signals have done very well over time.

       Please do not be critical of a service that you do not subscribe to and are not a member of. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You have no one else to blame but yourself if you lost money in the market. You probably were not using any kind of money management control on your position.

       Adam

18. You had us all go short a few weeks ago and hold the positions in the short, intermediate and Long Term. You PUT US ON THE COMPLETELY WRONG SIDE OF THE MARKET!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. RD,

       You have no one else to blame but yourself and your greed.

       Please do not be critical of a service that you do not subscribe to and are not a member of. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You have no one else to blame but yourself if you lost money in the market. You probably were not using any kind of money management control on your position.

       Adam

19. lak ,robert and john,including rick..i feel your losses and sympathize wt u,but please dust off losses,brace up for profits its around the corner..llok up and follow the numbers below the triangles as well
    often i hardly take trades below 90..+/.-. but when u see +60,,go to sell for a short time and vice versa for _60..buy for short time frame
    when themonthly triangle gives 100 _/+ please wait till daily shows u alignment with monthly..u wont regret waiting for daily and monthly allingment especially the very day daily triangle agrees with monthly..dearie its a sweet home runs
    hope this helps
    ojo

20. All,

    We have replaced the video from earlier with a version that has better audio sync. We apologize for the inconvenience that this may have caused.

    Stay tuned for tomorrow's update.

    Cheers,
    Jeremy

21. A few points to Adam:

    1. Never ever recommend shorting the markets especially to your audience. Most are inexperienced and have limited risk management skills.

    2. Use the COT (Commitment of Traders) Report and sentiment to determine your buys and sells. Those triangles are a day late and a dollar short.

    3. Try not to make predictions of the overall market. Let the market speak for itself.

    1. Jame,

       I appreciate your feedback and if you know the MarketClub mantra you know how we approach the markets.

       Please do not be critical of a service that you do not subscribe to and are not a member of. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios.

       Adam

22. C'mon people... proper use of the Trade Triangles is all over the site - so if you haven't taken the time to learn how to use it, do you really have a complaint? I agree that Adam occasionally gives market outlooks that are contrary to the TT's... not good when you're pushing the value of the system, Adam.
    If you're going to trade when the monthly and weekly are not aligned, there's more risk so know what you're doing.
    There's nothing magic about a 3 month or 3 week high - anyone can calculate the scan scores by simple charts and math. Use some other indicators such as moving averages and crossovers - also videos on the site for that. I'm up huge today because I traded the weekly up triangles knowing that the monthlies are about to give a positive signal in many indices and etf's.

23. I might add that you cannot take any one person or system 'religiously', as the market does what ever it wants to. take it from someone who both profited and lost following Granville in the late '70's and early '80's.

24. I know some of the best traders who were
    short this market till yesterday.I sold all my
    Longs yesterday as the market reversed from
    high because the action was so severe that
    I was scared so they(market makers) they all
    took my longs from me yesterday. But I was also
    Not short this Market but I am angry now that
    I could not participate in this rally.
    Jaan

25. I speculated about 3 weeks ago that this was a bull market 'in disguise' as i bought SPY calls at S&P 1075-76. I wish I had listened to myself as i took profits at 1133 and started buying puts at the 18 day average of closes only to see crude and S&P rally to the upper end of the channel and beyond. So I am now trying to recoup by day trading. for the past 2 days the market has opened at the #3 high pivot. Yesterday, buying the SPY put on the opening resulted in a nice profit as it sold off to the pivot level. Today for a short time there was a profit, but then it turned around and went to the #4 pivot level, an unusual occurrence, and for which i calculated to be SPY 129.42, the exact high. i managed to buy puts at 2 tics off the low of the day. However, i choose to make these 'daytrades' into position trades at least for the short term. This rally has taken the S&P to almost the level the monthly red triangle kicked in. I am just seeing euphoria in the markets , but no realism about the consequences of all that stuff in Europe. Just can't bring myself to buy too many calls. Bought some puts on Avon, however. Here's hoping...

26. The above people when trading do not risk more than you can lose. then you can eat and your wife is not mad at you for being a bad trader. if you risked 2% or at most 5% at most then that is the only amount you are down.
    Trading is like a video game the more you play the better you become. if you do not have tiem to play or you risk too much and cannot play then that is your issue. only 20% of us make money.

    if you look at the S&P graph you would see that it was a break out at 1230. I thought Adam said that a week ago thursady the 20th. I am confused and really happy with my trading results.

    I use the trade triangles to support what I see. The do lang a bit but still helps me.

27. I'm not up to date when the last triangle triggered... Thanks for sharing your loses I would like to hear more from other people about they trades and the triangles.

    1. Mark,

       I am amazed at how many comments about our Trade Triangle are coming from none members of MarketClub. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You can try out MarketClub for $8.95. If you can't afford that, then you should not be reading this page or trading as it will cost you a lot more by not learning how to trade properly.

       All the best,
       Adam

28. Hi Adam,

    I joined the Market Club this year - hoping it will guide me
    with my trading.

    I am one of those guys above who have been listening to your comentary that
    the S& P 500 will roll over same with Silver, as I was holding a short positions before
    this rally. I believed on what you said and hope you are right because I am still holding
    them till 16th December 2011 expiry.

    On what I could see the chart is correct - and if only we follow the chart to trade in the direction
    of the trend and not listen to your analysis that it will roll over - to at least 1120 level - I could have
    cashed in before then even I sustain a minimal loss. Now it's too late.

    Thank you.

29. Maybe the dollar caved because people actually believe that the European deal is going to work and that the world economy is going to get better? After all, it only rose from the bottom where bush and dick put it because of pessimism.. maybe it's dropping back there for the reverse.. I do still believe that the long term trend for the dollar is down, but I just don't believe it is going to be the predicted catastrophe, nor is it necessarily an indication of a failed monetary system. Hyper military spending and crazy tax cuts are more like the cause.

30. The economic, political and years-of-experience commentary has been dead wrong for weeks now. Still waiting for the rollover pattern to start. At least today, there was an admission that the dollar has caved. It'll take a lot of triangles, trendlines and rollover patterns to ease the recent losses and play hard catch up from behind. So much for making money the easy way with a reliable system. Back to the Fastmoney traders on CNBC at lunchtime I guess. Scoping the options activity seems more insightful to this amateur market trader who is still looking for someone/something to believe in when it comes to the stock market. Some things, a lot of things, sound good but, in reality, just don't deliver. Nine percent of $50,000 is $4,500. The best thing about MC is Mr. Hewison's helpful and gentlemenly personality. Also, thanks for trying.

    1. Sunday,

       I am amazed at how many comments about our Trade Triangle are coming from none members of MarketClub. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You can try out MarketClub for $8.95. If you can't afford that, then you should not be reading this page or trading as it will cost you a lot more by not learning how to trade properly.

       All the best,
       Adam

31. I hope it is real, and I hope the advanced European democracies beat back the financial attack that they have undergone. It would be a huge effluent sandwich for the chicken little boys like Weiss, et al. The rally might fail, might not be real, but tell you what - even if it isn't real and if it does drop again, I'm still not buying what those clowns are selling. Doesn't mean gold isn't a good speculation either - gold could do very well just on the strength of dumb people hoarding for the collapse.. The key would be knowing when to sell...

32. As I had commented a couple of days ago, it is clear to me that Trade Triangles are just backward looking indicators and should not be used as buy/sell signals. When you are in a secular bull market, for example, everyone and his mother is going to be right about the market direction, including Trade Triangles. Even my gardener told me to buy gold when it was at $1400, just like the Triangles. However, in choppy markets like we are in now, backward looking indicators are sure to lose you money. I think it would be foolish to put too much credence on these indicators; they should be looked at as just another technical indicator among several, that help make trading decisions. The question is whether it is worth signing up for the service?

33. Sorry, I double posted. It took so long for the first one, I thought it would not post....Thanks for telling me where to find that instruction. But, too late. I really did look thru them. But, as my wife always says, 'you can't see something even if it's right in front of you!'...As I said in the 2nd posting, new members should see this up front in a place it cannot be missed...severly paraphrased!

34. It is interesting to note that had any system been working well, it would have said 'to the sidelines' on around August 7th (after a super short call a week before in the case of this service).

    The triangles probably need the addition of investor sentiment as a contra indication to give it some forward vision. The smart guys have been saying buy for some time because investor sentiment has been so excessively gloomy(hence too many shorts and the potential for mega singeing) .

    If coloring the background is the monthly triangle and make the moves in the weekly, it is critical to see track record of that for all contract over years to get confidence back in this system (whose calls I have ignored due to bad experiences) and as the other guy said lack of guidance at the time when I was a subscriber.

    Lack of audit trails is a disappointing to say the least. They are so easy to generate by the provider for various strategies but so difficult for potential users .

    Finally, text guidance and triangles must match, or the divergence is explained!!

35. This will be the 2nd post I have made on this subject. The first was not posted...a glitch or?...Anyway the gist of it was that I did not find an exact explanation on how to read the trade triangles and did not know until Adam mentioned it recently in the 1 PM update, that a conflict in the monthly and weekly triangles meant you should exit your long or short position. Missing that bit of knowledge (did not see it in the tutorials) and listening to the 1 PM updates, meant I kept my SPY and a couple of bank shorts on waiting for that pullback. (I use option spreads) Watched the Market crash thru all the resistance levels, Fibronaci retracements, waiting for a signal that it was time to get long. Or something! Broke the 200 DMA today and my positions are worthless....I can blame no one but myself, but Market Club needs to tutor it's members better on it's Trade Triangle Technology. It might have saved my small portfolio...I am very depressed, and, as Robert so aptly put it...'What am I going to tell my wife?'...and also, 'what are we going to eat this month(?)', as I had been doing just fine without MC in that respect.

36. OK I'll bite. Yes, this rally is real. Why are you doubting it, Adam? Do you think that the stock market can't go up in a weak economy? Maybe it isn't so irrational when you stop and think about it. Ok so the U.K. just did a partial default... makes you want to run out and buy 'other' sovereign debt! Right? That money is going to go somewhere. Either we are dealing with fear and irrationality, or the invisible hand knows better times are around the corner.

    If I had to choose my destruction: bonds, housing or stocks... I'd pick stocks. Corps are sitting on mountains of cash and when we finally do snap out of this recession they're going to expand and loosen their grip.

    1. Jackson,

       Thanks for your feedback.

       I am amazed at how many comments about our Trade Triangle are coming from none members of MarketClub. The videos I provide for free, are educational and do not offer specific trading advice. MarketClub members enjoy all the benefits of our club, including our Trade Triangle technology, plus the access to three very successful trading portfolios. You can try out MarketClub for $8.95. If you can't afford that, then you should not be reading this page or trading as it will cost you a lot more by not learning how to trade properly.

       All the best,
       Adam

37. It is not imaginary.
    60% of all companies showed profits above estimates (they are making moneyyyy).
    Also, it is a shopping season now, so expect more rally...
    The Euro zone will print more money to cover all debts...
    So, for a while, the rally will continue.

38. The rally is real, but based on imaginary world financial health.

39. Yes, The rally is real
    Yes, The rally is real
    Yes, The rally is real

40. Unfortunately, I am in even worse shape than Robert. I cannot blame anyone else, but I do wish there had been an expicit expanation of exactly how to use the trade triangles. I did not see any in the tutorial section and it wasn't until a few days ago that it was mentioned a conflict in the monthly and weekly triangles meant I should have left a short position I was in....along with banking shorts, a couple of others not covered in the 1 PM videos. (I use option spreads, not actual shorts). And why did I not just trade that weekly long?!..... I did not have a big amount to trade, but I have taken such losses that it will require a few big, lucky trades in a row, to get me back to even...very unlikely....I am VERY, VERY depressed that these triangles did not help me do anything but lose money. I had such high hopes for Market Club after being a long time free member and really threw my portfolio at what appeared to be the right direction, based on triangles and the 1 pm updates.
    My personal belief is that the Market is blind to anything but that a Fairy God Mother is going to fix everthing and that the triangles would be able to see through that sort of BS....Oh, well. Yet another Market Loser bites the dust.

    1. Rick,

       The Trade Triangle rules are listed in the Help Section under "Trade Triangles" Here's a link to the Help Section and the exact page where they are.

       http://club.ino.com/trading/marketclub-help-section/

       http://club.ino.com/trading/marketclub-help-section/flash-charts/trade-triangles/

       http://club.ino.com/trading/marketclub-help-section/flash-charts/trade-triangles/how-do-i-interpret-the-trade-triangles-when-would-i-enterexit/

       Here's a tutorial video on how the Trade Triangles work also located in the Help Section.

       http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/12/marketclub-webinar-part-1/

       http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/12/marketclub-webinar-part-2/

       Best,
       Jeremy

41. The video and the audio are not synced up for me. I thought you lost your mind there for a minute. Talking about gold and looking at the copper chart.

42. Adam,

    I've been following market club for quite a while now, and have religiously viewed your market updates.
    I went short on the market at the signal. I averaged in, and used stops that were quite a bit lower than
    I normally would use, because the market was swinging so wildly. I still got stopped out and took losses.
    I continued to watch your 1 pm updates, and you still said this market was going lower, so I got back in to
    the short side, with even larger stops and got killed. I've lost over 30% of my portfolio just listening and
    trusting that your trade triangles would work. The short side of the market is now much lower than anywhere near
    the signal to short the markets. I'm sick to my stomach. I got stopped out on everything today! Shees! What am
    I going to tell my wife?

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