Hello fellow traders everywhere. Adam Hewison here co-founder of MarketClub with your weekend update for the trading week ending on 11/11/11.
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First it was Greece, then it was Italy, now it's the Super Committee
Last week it was all about Greece and Italy, and while those two countries are not off our radar screen by a long shot, along comes the Super Committee. This closed door, 12 member committee, made up of members of the House and Senate could give the markets a Super Headache.
Investors are concerned about how this super committee is going to cut 1.2 trillion dollars in the budget over the next 10 years. Recent polls suggest there's a 30 to 50% chance of the committee accomplishing this goal. These private closed door meetings, should give us an indication of their progress by the 23rd of this month and the probability of success. It will be interesting to see given the state of the economy and the markets, and the huge political disconnect from reality, if this committee can come up with a viable solution.
Last week's choppy market action, saw the major indices for the most part close flat for the week. This action reflects the trading range environment that we are currently in. Our Trade Triangle scores for the major indices reflect the current state of the markets.
Now here is a quick look at the percentage changes made for last weeks trading:
S&P 500 Index: + 0.84%
MARKETCLUB Trend Score = + 55
Spot Silver: + 1.62%
MARKETCLUB Trend Score = - 55
Spot Gold: + 1.92%
MARKETCLUB Trend Score = + 85
Copper (December) - 2.53%
MARKETCLUB Trend Score = - 65
Crude Oil(December): + 5.11%
MARKETCLUB Trend Score = + 70
Dollar Index: Flat 0.03%
MARKETCLUB Trend Score = + 90
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index: Flat 0.01%
MARKETCLUB Trend Score = + 55
HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Score: - 50 - 65 Trading Range
Score: - 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Score: - 85 - 100 Strong Trend
Okay, now let's go to the charts and the video and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
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S&P500 INDEX
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CHANGE FOR THE WEEK: + 0.84%
OUR VIEW: Trading Range - 1295 resistance - 1220 support
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: 1263.85
MKT FLAT FOR THE WEEK
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MARKETCLUB Trend Score = + 55
HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Score: 50 - 65 Trading Range
Score: 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Score: 85 - 100 Strong Trend
Monthly Trade Triangle for Long-Term Trend = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangle for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangle for Short-Term Trend = Positive
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Suggested Trading Instruments for this INDEX
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF's: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Contact your broker
Options: Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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SILVER (SPOT)
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CHANGE FOR THE WEEK: + 1.62%
OUR VIEW: Trading Range
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: 34.68
MKT PLUS FOR THE WEEK
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MARKETCLUB Trend Score = - 55
HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Score: - 50 - 65 Trading Range
Score: - 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Score: - 85 - 100 Strong Trend
Monthly Trade Triangle for Long-Term Trend = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangle for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangle for Short-Term Trend = Negative
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Suggested Trading Instruments for SILVER
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long AQG) (Short ZSL)
Futures: Contact your broker
Options: Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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GOLD (SPOT)
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CHANGE FOR THE WEEK: + 1.92%
OUR VIEW: Resistance at $1,800 basis spot
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: 1,787.85
MKT HIGHER FOR THE WEEK
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MARKETCLUB Trend Score = + 85
HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Score: 50 - 65 Trading Range
Score: 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Score: 85 - 100 Strong Trend
Monthly Trade Triangle for Long-Term Trend = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangle for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangle for Short-Term Trend = Negative
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Suggested Trading Instruments for GOLD
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF's:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures: Contact your broker
Options: Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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COPPER (DECEMBER)
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CHANGE FOR THE WEEK: - 2.53%
OUR VIEW: 3.20 now key support
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: 3.566
MKT LOWER FOR THE WEEK
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MARKETCLUB Trend Score = - 65
HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Score: 50 - 65 Trading Range
Score: 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Score: 85 - 100 Strong Trend
Monthly Trade Triangle for Long-Term Trend = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangle for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangle for Short-Term Trend = Negative
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Suggested Copper Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long JJC)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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CRUDE OIL (November)
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CHANGE FOR THE WEEK: + 5.11%
OUR VIEW: Resistance at $100
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: 99.25
MKT HIGHER FOR THE WEEK
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MARKETCLUB Trend Score = + 70
HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Score: 50 - 65 Trading Range
Score: 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Score: 85 - 100 Strong Trend
Monthly Trade Triangle for Long-Term Trend = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangle for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangle for Short-Term Trend = Positive
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Suggested Trading Instruments for CRUDE OIL
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures: Call your broker
Options: Call your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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US DOLLAR INDEX (SPOT)
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CHANGE FOR THE WEEK: + 0.03%
OUR VIEW: Resistance at 78.00
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: 76.91
MKT FLAT FOR THE WEEK
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MARKETCLUB Trend Score = + 90
HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Score: 50 - 65 Trading Range
Score: 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Score: 85 - 100 Strong Trend
Monthly Trade Triangle for Long-Term Trend = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangle for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangle for Short-Term Trend = Positive
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Suggested Trading Instruments for the US DOLLAR INDEX
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Non Available Leveraged ETF's: (Long -) (Short -)
Futures: Contact your broker
Options: Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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REUTERS/JEFFRIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX (SPOT)
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CHANGE FOR THE WEEK: + 0.01%%
OUR VIEW: Trading Range
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: 320.45
MKT FLAT FOR THE WEEK
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MARKETCLUB Trend Score = + 55
HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM:
Score: 50 - 65 Trading Range
Score: 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Score: 85 - 100 Strong Trend
Monthly Trade Triangle for Long-Term Trend = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangle for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangle for Short-Term Trend = Negative
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Suggested Trading Instruments for the REUTER/JEFFRIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long UCO) (Short CMD)
Futures: Contact your broker
Options: Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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We rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
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This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub, I'll see you Monday, have a great weekend.
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First it was Greece, then it was Italy, now it’s........
Oh i jsut cant understand why we counting names, Greece and Italy are just bigginers, with many many followers behind, its a question of time only....... Just WHEN? WHO ARES is irrelavent question because situation is all most same every where, with some minor difference.
REfer to Danial Yergan presidents commission on NatGas. The answer is NatGas. 5-ten year infrastructure ramp compared to alternitives 50 year ramp to get 30% of US projected BTU's. As quoted by Yergin it's not a question of NatGas it is already here and private sector is ramping. The US is has more energy than any known reserves on the globe. Weather used by the US or other energy deficient countries the industry doesn't care. Shale Gas presents such a compeling case the DoE has already approved one of 5 applications for liquification terminals and others are being approved. The choice whether grennies want to get on board or the industry will simply sell gas on the open market and ship to asia. We have the choice. One off loading terminal is currently being coverted from receiving to liqufication and shipping.
Gas statifies a number of proven US needs
Millions of Jobs
New factories )Dupont and other plastics maufacturers are breaking ground on new factories around the Marcellous, Utica and Bakken shale plays. NOW, in this moment
Engergy Independance. Iran can stave themselves by blocking shipping lanes but with litte effect on us. So, increased security for American Interests. If fact the Persion Gulf will become useles to American the Islamic Faciest can do as they will.
It comes close to making the US a potential net exporter.
Half the price of oil and exports will make America a net exporter.
To ignore this receipe for economic gain is foolishness.
http://articles.philly.com/2011-09-26/news/30204277_1_shale-gas-pennsylvania-s-marcellus-shale-natural-gas
The never ending story: Greece, Italy, Portugal and in some kind also Spain. Even in former time, before the Euro became common currency, they were always the countries with the worst depts. And big American banks were financing these countries and they earned a lot of money. It was always a good buisness for them to finance them...
"can allow" is the operative verb, Steve. "May allow" fits the situation better. One doesn't want to be niave.
The strategy you propose sounds wonderful but to make it work inevitably involves individual,corporate and nation-state downsizing - "down-wanting" - and sharing your future - college educations for the kids, new cars now and then, housing and scarce medicines etc - with sick, underfed, uneducated, angry billions. Do we have politicians and leaders able to see that, let alone take it on? Can they do that even within the United States? Many don't want to.
Are you, as an individual,ready? Are you personally willing? Will you be the first to cut back your "wants" let alone your "needs?"
r
Ralph's comment shows how inflexible thinking limts evolution, ergo the Romans became super rich and super powerful and stopped thinking 'outside of the box'...they declined.
The UK around 1700 started to get into boats and trading around the world. They developed a banking system to finance this and various ways to control or trade with countries around the world. They needed energy and not having slaves etc they thought 'outside the box' and started inventing new labour saving products to help...ergo the industrial revolution started financed by capitalism. That bought success.
Steve's comment is absolutely correct...mankind now needs to change energy sources and the spin off will be a second industrial revolution. Darwin showed that species that adapt can survive while those that don't decline...the same happens with economies.
Thats my 2c worth 🙂
Despite the propaganda by the oil, coal and nuclear industries, there are viable alternatives that exist now, that can allow us to avoid the dark future mentioned by Ralph. Download (free) detailed facts and analysis about the technical and economic feasibility of achieving an efficient and fully renewable energy system in the United States by 2050 "Carbon-Free and Nuclear-Free: A Roadmap for U.S. Energy Policy" (2007, which provides by PhD Arjun Makhijani,at http://www.ieer.org/carbonfree/ A fringe benefit: energy independence, a huge boost to the economy by developing our own energy infrastructure with millions of permanent jobs.
Or we could just continue to fight more wars over ever-dwindling fossil fuels, create more nuclear waste, and destroy the global climate and environment.
Sunday morning thoughts as we traders scramble around getting ready for next week, trying to make money trading oil and gold in the market...
Energy. In Roman times it was provided by slave labour. Slaves were brought in from all over the known world to do the work. Even so, society became so complex that there were never enough slaves to get everything done. And there was competition with other nations for slaves. Eventually the farms failed from a lack of slave labor. The repair and maintenance of infrastructure - roads, water, homebuilding, garbage removal - failed. Gorgeous villas and ampitheatres became ruins. The circus had to be called off. The military could not be compensated. Legionaires revolted. Saves revolted. When they arrived, the Visigoths did not defeat the Romans in battle. "They simply walked over a corpse," as the historians tell us. With the world's superpower gone, humanity - science, literature, art - entered a dark age that lasted for 1,000 years.
In American times, energy comes from oil and the Americans bring it in from all over the world. But competition for oil from emerging nations is growing expoentially just as it is beginning to run out. What happens next is not something you have to be a rocket scientist to figure out.
Now. Back to the oil and gold charts!
It is another sad commentary on the state of affairs here in the US. The Soviet Union used to have a Super Committee, too, it was called the Politburo. Somehow I don't remember this being mentioned in the Constitution, but we no longer seem concerned by such formalities.
Thank you Adam for taking time out of your weekend to give us this video, these are tough times to be in the market but market club makes it more clear to see what’s going on. 🙂
Any wining suggestions for monday and on?
Check out my 1 pm update on Monday.
Adam
Adam,
Thank you for putting the trading ranges in regarding your view, I really appreciate that, it is a help, keep doing that.
Thanks again,
Dina
I refer to this as the ongoing saga of the PIIGS. It seems they are following in the US model of arguing, debating, deficits, spending, etc... but there's always opportunity to make money, even in down markets. If things do drop off further, don't forget DOG, SH, PSQ, HSD.TO, HXD.TO, etc.