Hello fellow traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 24th of February.
A bull market that is surprising everyone...
Today we will figure out why the equity markets are going higher.
Where is the next stop for crude oil?
We share with you with the next major level for crude oil.
3 Stocks on the move today:
SALESFORCE.COM INC (CRM), INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COMPANIES (IPG), and GAP (GPS).
Did MarketClub's Trade Triangle technology get it right on these three stocks?
Now, let's analyze the markets using MarketClub's Trade Triangle Technology.
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S&P 500 INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend +100
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bullish | Daily = Bullish
I think the action in the equity markets is starting to surprise a lot of people. I would say if we see a close over $1367 today, it will be bullish for the weekend. Longer-term we expect this market to move up to the $1550 to $1600 level by late May, early June based on our cyclic work. With all three of our Trade Triangles green, a bull market is underway. Long and Intermediate term traders should now be holding long positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
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See suggested S&P 500 trading instruments HERE.
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SILVER (SPOT)
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend +90
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bullish | Daily = Bullish
A move and close over $36.00 would be a game changer for silver, as it breaks a major downtrend line. This would set up a target zone of around $44.00. We want to be patient and wait to see if this actually happens. Our long-term monthly Trade Triangle turned positive yesterday. This particular indicator has done extremely well in the past. Long and Intermediate term traders should now be holding long positions in silver with appropriate money management stops.
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See suggested SILVER trading instruments HERE.
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GOLD (SPOT)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range +60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bearish | Weekly = Bullish | Daily = Bullish
Gold is fast approaching the major resistance level at $1800 an ounce, and we expect that this will be a major in pediment to this market's run up. With a Score of +60, the gold market is in a trading range. With our long-term monthly Trade Triangle still in a negative red mode, we cannot get to excited about this market at the moment. We are not bearish on this metal, we just need further confirmation with the tools we know are successful in trading gold. Long-term term traders should be in short positions in gold with appropriate money management stops. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines.
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See suggested GOLD trading instruments HERE.
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COPPER (MAY 2012)
BIG PICTURE: Emerging Trend +75
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bearish | Daily = Bearish
We would view a close today over $3.90 in the May contract as a very bullish sign for this market and a good close for the week. With a Score of +75, the copper market is regrouping from it's recent sell-off and moving into an emerging trend. We continue to view the longer-term trend in copper as positive. Look for support next week at the $3.77 level. The market action looks as though it has created a large base to move higher in the future. Long term traders should now be holding long positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
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See suggested COPPER trading instruments HERE.
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CRUDE OIL (APRIL 2012)
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend +100
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bullish | Daily = Bullish
We spelled out the case last week for a bullish market in crude oil and if you haven't seen our special report, you may want to check it out HERE (LINK TO SPECIAL REPORT). We are looking for crude oil to make its highs probably somewhere in the May period. With a Score of +100, this market is in a strong trend to the upside. We remain longer term positive on this market. With our monthly, weekly, and daily Trade Triangles in a positive mode, we expect we will see further gains in crude oil. All traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.
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See suggested CRUDE OIL trading instruments HERE.
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DOLLAR INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range -70
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bearish | Daily = Bearish
This index does not appear as though it's going to close well for the week and we would not be surprised to see some further selling pressure coming in to this market. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement takes this market back down to the $77.38 level. With a Score of -70, this market is once again in a emerging trend to the downside. Long term traders using our monthly Trade Triangles should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.
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See suggested DOLLAR INDEX trading instruments HERE.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend +100
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bullish | Daily = Bullish
A close today over the $325 level should be viewed as very positive for this index, indicating that inflation is well on it's way. With all our Trade Triangles green, it would appear as though this market is sending a strong signal that inflation is just around the corner. Look for this index to move steadily higher. With a Score of +100 and in a strong uptrend, look for any pullbacks to be met by good support. Long-term and intermediate term traders should hold long positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
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See suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX trading instruments HERE.
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This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub and I'll see you tomorrow with my weekend update. Have a profitable trading day.
Take care everyone,
Adam Hewison
President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com
It's hard to keep short position on gold, according to monthly trade triangle. If you follow this signal you have already lost 15%, and I guess you will loss 20% if you waiting for monthly trade triangle turn to positive. Giving correlation between gold and silver, gold and CRB, gold is a buy.
So I'm wondering how monthly trade triagnle work?
On second thought I may just continue to be on the sidelines in this stock market, the crash may not wait for May. 'Beware the Ides of March'. It is hard to trust a market where 70% of the trades are made by HFT programmed computers. Have fun all you bulls!
I read a report that estimated a $23 Mid East premium in crude over the price indicated by supply/demand. I guess that if it goes to $120-125 the Middle East situation will worsen from its present condition. The weak dollar helps crude oil as well as a lot of other markets go higher including the stock market. With inflation and the Central Banks full tilt bozo on the printing presses, and the public companies flush with cash and buying back their own stock with the cash due to 0% interest rates (instead of growing their companies in a no growth economy)the stock market will likely continue higher to SP500 1375 or higher before it consolidates. At some point the public will come back into the market and push it up to an obscene level, and that is probably when the public companies will start selling. End of April, early May still sounds like as good a time as any for that, we'll see...
I am hoping gold will pull back and consolidate around $1750 if the dollar can bounce a bit. I am also looking to short bonds via TBT when bonds run up to 145-146, and looking for buying opportunities in individual equities like JOY Global and some of the ones Adam has been pointing out. I like Gap at $22, it also has support from that bullish gap up.
Wasn't only about a month ago that you guys were saying everyday how the S&P was heading to 580?
Not sure $120 crude + $16T debt = 1500 S&P.
S&P to 1550-1600 by May/June??? I'd like some of that "hopium" you're smoking - that'd be a 50% gain off October lows! R-i-i-i-i-g-g-h-h-t-t! After a double off Mar 2009! I get cyclical work, but one has to do a reality check too.
S&P has failed to take out it's high while the NQ and Dow have; Transports have failed to confirm and are lagging badly.
I'd love to see that rally - but "ain't gonna happen". Please send me a reply email in June if I'm wrong. In the meantime, people can lose a LOT of money following your instructions while the Monthly triangles move to Bullish/Bearish - e.g., "short silver", short gold", "long the dollar". Major moves occurred against those instructions.