We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Grain Futures--- The grain market continues its bearish momentum this week with wheat trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 7.19 a bushel hitting 8 month lows this week and at one point actually cracked $7 a bushel currently trading right around 7.13 up slightly this Friday afternoon and as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I am extremely bearish and I think prices will head sharply lower from these levels possibly hitting the $6 level where they were before the drought took place last year with excellent crops around the world and renewed moisture in the Great Plains in the last week with heavy snow and rains. Corn futures for the December contract are hitting an 8 month low far below their 20 and 100 day moving average with major support at 5.20 – 5.40 a bushel unchanged for the week but slightly lower this Friday afternoon currently trading at 5.56 and I do believe prices are headed lower, however it is limited to the downside I think possibly about another $.20 to the downside but if you’re a long term investor I would start scaling in small to the upside especially when weather problems could come back into play come April, May, and June. Soybean futures for the May contract are down another $.7 this Friday afternoon off of session lows currently trading at 14.28 below its 20 day moving average but slightly above its 100 day moving average still in a very choppy market and as I’ve been advising traders in the last couple weeks to basically avoid the soybeans because there is no trend and there is a lot of volatility basically trading in a $1.00 range the last 3 months after settling last Friday at 14.43 only down about $.15 for the week in an extremely volatile trading week. Old crop soybeans carryover is 125 million bushels which is very low historically so if there’s going to be a rally it could be in the old crop while the new crop soybeans are the November contract which is at 12.59 right near 7 month lows as well all based on the fact that a large harvest is coming in from Brazil as well as a 3.4 billion bushel crop possibly being harvested in October. In my opinion I still believe corn and wheat prices are headed lower and I think soybeans will generally drift lower with very choppy action, but stay short corn and stay short wheat placing a stop above the 10 day high to try and minimize your risk if the trend does change. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Energy Futures-- Energy futures continue to fall out of bed as the U.S dollar rallies every single day pushing prices sharply lower and has affected the energy sector dramatically to the downside with crude oil trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average hitting an 8 week low settling last Friday at 93.11 in the April contract currently trading at 90.70 with major support at $87 a barrel and remembering $90 is still extremely expensive for crude oil especially with the U.S dollar gaining strength and the foreign currencies absolutely falling out of bed with the British Pound hitting a 2 ½ year low once again today. Heating oil futures have absolutely collapsed in the last month or so trading far below its 20 & 100 day moving average down 3000 points since 2/8/13 trading right near a 7 month low with major support at 290 and in my opinion I believe the energy markets are still headed lower. Unleaded gasoline for contract which have been by far the strongest in the sector is trading below its 20 day moving average but right above its 100 day moving average which stands at 2.95 down 4 out of the last 5 days settling last Friday at 3.26 currently trading at 3.13 a gallon and it has rallied 800 points from session lows with major support at 3.00 and I my opinion I believe prices are headed lower setting up for a terrific buying opportunity down the road especially if we continue to sell off dramatically here in the short term. I still believe that there are going to be problems with Iran and if the stock market continues to make all-time highs which in my opinion it will that could push up other asset prices and at this point people are rotating out of the commodity market and buying the stock market but that won’t continue forever so I’m advising traders to take advantage of extreme weakness if you’re a longer term investor TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
Precious Metal Futures--- Precious metal futures continued their bearish trends today with gold down another $5 this Friday afternoon settling at 1,572 an ounce now down $330 from their all-time highs trading way below its 20 and 100 day moving average settling last week at 1, 586 down $13 in a wild trading week with Tuesday rallying $30 but selling off on Wednesday & Thursday about $20 each as the U.S dollar is slamming the commodity markets and the precious metals with the metals selling off first and now the other commodities are all starting to follow. Silver futures for the May contract are trading below the 20 and 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 28.43 hitting new lows this morning basically trading unchanged hitting a fresh 7 month low as investors continue to sell believing that the U.S dollar is headed higher and a possible collapse in the commodity market could be underway. Copper futures are down about 500 points today trading about 3000 points lower from their highs just a little over a month ago currently below their 20 and 100 day moving average with the next support at 3.45 which will be a six-month low currently we are a three-month lows on the fact that China is trying slowdown their housing market which is limiting demand and of course the U.S dollar being so strong recently is definitely hurting the copper market. Platinum futures are below their 100 and 20 day moving average down another $14 today currently trading at 1,573 an ounce now down over $170 in the last 2 weeks and has J.P. Morgan has stated earlier in the year there could be some tremendous spikes in platinum prices to the upside so I’m advising traders to take advantage of $170 sell off and take a shot to the upside because the U.S dollar in my opinion is not going to continue this strength in the long run. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Cocoa Futures-- Cocoa futures are getting hammered once again this Friday afternoon continuing their bearish trend on terrific chart structure trading far below their 20 & 100 day moving average down another 53 points today at 2082 after settling last Friday at 2139 hitting new nine-month low all on the fact that the harvest in West Africa has been outstanding putting pressure on prices here in the short term because of the fact that supplies are coming in overwhelming the demand. If you look at cocoa on the daily chart it continues to grind lower like a classic bear market which goes down slightly almost every single day and in my opinion cocoa prices are headed lower & if you’re looking at shorting this market place a stop above the 10 day high in case you are wrong minimizing your risk but at this point this trend is very strong and it looks to me that we might retest the 1900 level here in the next month or so. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Sugar Futures-- Sugar futures were also sharply lower once again today down 48 points at 17.91 this Friday evening still near a 2 ½ year low despite the fact that Brazil has said it will increase its ethanol production for its gasoline blend which should help reduce some of the excess sugar surplus which is the current situation, however we are still trading below the 20 and 100 day moving average with last Friday settling at 18.15 on terrific chart structure and I’m still advising traders to sit on the sideline in this market because it has been choppy in the last couple weeks with really no trend in sight and I believe the longer you stay at these prices are better chance of the bottom being formed. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Coffee Futures--Coffee futures in New York this week were very quiet and nonvolatile trading right at its 20 day moving average but still below its 100 day moving average which stands at 154 a pound basically unchanged for the trading week at 143.35 a pound with very little volatility and in my opinion this volatility level is not going to remain much longer in all of my years of trading coffee I can’t remember such tight ranges on a daily basis with very little movement. Reports coming out the Vietnam suggest they might lose 25% of their crop in the Central Highlands due to the fact that the drought continues, however on the bearish side there is such a huge production that could come out of Brazil offsetting the bullish news in Vietnam and in Central America which is still claiming rust on the trees and leaves and a possibility of 30% reduction of the crop next year ,however with the commodity slide and the U.S dollar gaining basically every day that is putting major pressure on the commodities ,however coffee has held his own in the last couple of weeks basically consolidating a large down move and in my opinion I do believe coffee prices are right near a low so if you’re a long-term investor take a look at the coffee chart because it could be an excellent buying opportunity in my opinion. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Orange Juice Futures--- Orange juice futures for the week tumbled especially this Friday afternoon down nearly 700 points after settling last Friday at 129.75 currently trading at 121 in the May contract with a possible double top at 128 when the price hit there twice in the last week unable to cross now trading below its 20 & 100 day moving average on solid chart structure but unable to regain its bullishness with all of the commodities selling off hard this week once again. This market remains pretty choppy in my opinion with no trend at this point, however I do believe the lows have been created at the 110 level and looking at buying weakness because I do believe eventually the commodity markets will turn around but orange juice is considered a luxury item and if a recession happens people stop drinking coffee & orange juice because they are considered disposable items which then lessons demand pushing prices lower ,however I think the economy is in excellent shape and I think demand is going to come back in the commodity markets eventually just like it did last June when prices slid during Spring and then rebounded tremendously on the fact that the selloff was overdone and at this point I believe the selloff in the commodity market is getting over done. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor.
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone # (800) 615-7649
