Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 35.92 while currently trading at 38.90 a barrel up around $3 for the trading week continuing its bullish momentum as prices have now hit a 9 week high. Crude is trading above its 20 day but right at its 100 day moving average as the trend is still relatively mixed in my opinion as the commodity markets in general have all bottomed out as volatility certainly has come back into the currency market pushing the commodity markets like a yo-yo in recent weeks. The demand season is almost upon us as many Americans will be driving this summer as gasoline prices certainly have rallied here in the Chicagoland area over the last several weeks as we are currently paying 2.18 a gallon as I paid 1.26 a gallon just about 3 weeks ago. The United States has experienced extremely warm weather and I think that is starting to pick up demand, but I’m not involved in this market as I’m not involved in many commodities at the current time as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for something better to develop as being patient is the key to trading. In my opinion I do believe the commodity rally will not last much longer as producers will start to produce even more especially at the $40 level in crude oil as this is just a kickback in price.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1.66 while currently trading at 1.84 rallying 18 points this week as I was recommending a short position from around the 2.15 level and if you took that trade we were stopped out in today’s action as prices hit a 2 week high so it’s time to move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend. Natural gas prices are now trading above their 20 day, but still below their 100 day moving average as the commodity markets in general have rallied substantially over the last several weeks as many of my short recommendations have been stopped out, as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in many different sectors looking for opportunities to develop. The energy sector as a whole has risen so it’s time to move on and realize that the trend may have changed, but I’m very leery of this recent rally so sit on the sidelines and be patient.
TREND: MIXED-LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 15.69 an ounce while currently trading at 15.58 down slightly for the trading week as I’ve sitting on the sidelines in this market waiting for better chart structure to develop as volatility certainly has come back into the precious metals in recent weeks. Silver prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the upside as huge volatility has entered the currency market swinging silver prices on a daily basis as the ECB lowered interest rates once again which are in negative territory currently sending huge volatility in the U.S dollar. Silver prices have been riding the coattails of gold which is still trading around 1,267 ounce right near recent highs as the negative interest rates worldwide are spooking investors as they are pouring money into the precious metals and out of the banking system as the S&P 500 has also rallied substantially over the last couple of weeks. If you have read any of my previous blogs you understand that I look for tight chart structure before entering into a trade which means as low monetary risk as possible, but at this point in time silver has high risk with high volatility so look at other markets with a better trading set up.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,270 an ounce while currently trading at 1,267 basically unchanged for the trading week continuing its high volatility as prices traded as high as 1,287 this Friday afternoon before profit-taking ensued pushing prices lower. The U.S dollar has had a wild week due to the fact that the ECB lowered interest rates which are currently yielding a negative rate and that is spooking investors as the world’s money flows are coming back into the precious metals as gold prices remain extremely strong. In the past gold would trade in the opposite direction of what the S&P 500 would do, however the stock market has also rallied sharply as extremely low interest rates are bullish commodities and stocks. Many of the commodity markets certainly have bottomed in my opinion as I have very few recommendations at the current time as I’m sitting on the sidelines in gold and many different markets waiting for better chart structure to develop. The problem with negative interest rates is that it forces the general public to take funds out of the bank and put it in other asset classes such as stocks and gold as that’s exactly what is developing at the present time as negative interest rates are a very unusual circumstance.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Trade with the short term trend, as the saying goes in futures trading the trend is your friend, but sometimes you will be in a market that is trending higher and then has a false breakout to the upside and then suddenly sells off causing you a 2% loss on your equity and you say to yourself, "that was a bad trade, should I do something different on my next trade?" If it was up to me I would continue to buy strength and sell weakness because in the long run commodity trading is about percentages of success in the long run, and if you go with the path of least resistance more often than not you will have the probabilities of success on your side. I define a trend as a commodity hitting a 20 day high or low as a trendy market, if the market is in a consolidation stay away from it and find something that is trending up or down and go in that direction remembering the money management rules of 2% maximum loss if you are wrong.

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the May contract continue their remarkable run to the upside in my opinion settling last Friday in New York at 14.83 a pound while currently trading at 15.21 up nearly 40 points for the trading week looking to retest the contract high around 15.35 as this market has turned on a dime. If you remember I was recommending a short position getting stopped out at the 2 week high which made me very upset as the market had been going lower, but as a trader you must have an exit strategy as now prices are about 150 points higher. At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines as the chart structure is very poor at the present time as prices are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average as it certainly looks to me that there is some energy behind this market to the upside so I’m certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as that would be countertrend trading as trading with the path of least resistance is the way to go over the course of time as the soft commodities in general look bullish in my opinion except for cotton. Prices over the last 3 weeks have rallied from around the 12.60 level to today’s prices which are about a 20% increase which is remarkable in my opinion, but avoid this market as the risk/reward is not your favor at the present time.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Cocoa Futures

Cocoa futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 3008 while currently trading at 3066 up about 60 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a bullish futures position from around the 2900 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss under the 10 day low which currently stands at 2895 as the chart structure will start to improve on a daily basis next week therefore lowering monetary risk. Cocoa prices have hit a 9 week high and now is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the upside with the next major level of resistance around the 3200 level and if that is broken I think we could possibly retest the contract high which was hit in the month of December around 3400 as a bull market has begun in this commodity. At the current time I’m recommending a bullish position in cocoa and coffee and a short position in cotton as I’m on the sidelines in many different markets as choppiness has entered many commodity sectors over the last several weeks ending the short-term bear markets. If you missed the original recommendation wait for some type of price retracement before entering as the risk/reward is not in your favor at the present time.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 57.11 while currently trading at 57.20 basically unchanged for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a short position over the last couple of months and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss at the 10 day high which is just an eyelash away at 57.90 as I have been stopped out of many different recommendations this week as cotton is my only short trade at the present time. Cotton prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is to the downside; however the commodity markets in general have caught fire to the upside, but I will stick to the rules keeping the proper stop loss. Volatility has increased over the last several days as a possible bottom may have been created in yesterday’s trade going as low as 55.66 before rallying sharply and if you are stopped out it’s time to move on as this was a successful trade and I think it’s time to start looking at some commodities to the upside. At the current time I’m recommending a bullish position in cocoa & coffee as the tide may have turned in the short-term.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 121.05 a pound while currently trading at 123 up about 200 points for the trading week as I’ve been recommending a bullish futures position from around the 121.50 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss below the contract low around 113.80 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week’s trade. As I’ve talked about in previous blogs coffee is a very large contract with huge price swings as this trade should have only been taken with a larger trading account as the risk remains about $3,000 per contract plus slippage and commission. Prices are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the trend is to the upside as that has not happened in quite some time as I remain bullish as prices are at a 4 week high which meets my criteria to enter into a new trade. If you take a look at the daily chart the long-term trend line is still intact, but we are at a critical level and if prices break 126 I think the bull market could be underway as volatility in my opinion certainly will start to increase in the coming weeks as the commodity markets in general have turned to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract which is considered the new crop which will be grown this summer and harvested in the Midwestern part of the United States come October is currently trading at 3.83 a bushel up about $.2 this Friday afternoon in Chicago finishing the week on a positive note closing right near a 2 week high. I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in the corn market for a while as I don’t think there’s a lot of potential to the up or downside for the rest of the month of March as I think the real volatility will enter springtime which generally happens in late April and certainly in the summer months as I do think a bottom may have been created around the 3.74 level so sit on the sidelines and be patient as the chart structure is starting to improve on a daily basis. Corn prices are trading right at their 20 day but still slightly below their 100 day moving average as there is little volatility, but that will certainly not be the case in 6 weeks in my opinion as this market could rally like it did in the year 2012 when we had a terrible drought here in the Midwest sending grain prices to record highs as the current temperatures remind me of that year as the path of least resistance in the short term is higher, but move on until the month of April in my opinion.
TREND: MIXED-LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID