Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

NASDAQ 100 Futures

The NASDAQ 100 in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 4667 while currently trading at 4803 up about 140 points for the trading week. I was originally recommending a short position in the September contract rolling over into the December contract while placing my stop loss above the 10-day high which stands at 4834 as the original risking around $1,600 per contract plus slippage and commission. This trade has been on a seesaw ride originally I was losing instantly on the trade & then winning now losing once again. However, I will continue to place the proper stop loss and move on if I am stopped out as I hate selling the indices as I think they are propped up by the Federal Reserve. The NASDAQ 100 is trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher. We are right near all-time highs once again despite the fact of many fundamental factors telling you that prices are way too high for this type of economy, but as a trader, you must have an exit strategy. At present, I’m also short the S&P 500 December from around the 2151 level while also placing the stop loss right near all-time highs as traders are awaiting next week’s Federal Reserve announcement about interest rates and in my opinion they will not raise rates once again as they do not want to see the stock market decline.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 2116 while currently trading at 2127 up about 11 points for the trading week. I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 2151 level & if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the all-time high at 2183 as the chart structure will not improve for another 5 days. If you have read any of my previous blogs you understand that I think the stock market is rigged, but the situation was beneficial, so I took the trade coupled with the fact that the risk/reward was highly in your favor. I will continue to place the proper stop loss as I still think lower prices are ahead. The S&P 500 is now trading below its 20-day but slightly above its 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is mixed as prices bottomed out around the 2100 level earlier in the week. But if that level is broken you would have to think that the bear market would continue to the downside as I still believe that this market is overpriced, but If I am stopped out, I will move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend. Traders are awaiting next week’s announcement on interest rates which will definitely send volatility back into this market as I’m getting very tired of this wishy-washy nonsense.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 45.88 a barrel while currently trading at 43.05 down nearly $3 for the trading week continuing its bearish trend hitting a 4 week low. At the current time, I am sitting on the sidelines in this market as I do have a bearish bias to the downside. However, the chart structure is very poor at present as the 10-day high stands at 47.75 which Is way too much monetary risk at the current time, but I will wait for some type of rebound to enter into a short position so keep a close eye on this market as we could be possibly initiating a trade next week. Oil prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower as massive oversupply issues continue to hamper this market also coupled with the fact that the U.S dollar is up 75 points this Friday afternoon which is a very negative influence on commodity prices. However, many commodities are up today, but oil is not able to avoid that influence as prices look to head towards $40 here in the short term in my opinion. Traders are awaiting next week’s Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates as there is very little chance that they will raise rates, but this market is based on oversupply issues as that has been the main factor over the last several years. Wait for the chart structure to improve therefore lowering the monetary risk to around $1,200 per mini contract before entering into a position in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 19.37 an ounce while currently trading at 18.85 down about $.50 for the trading week as major support stands at 18.50 & if that level is broken, you would have to think that the bearish trend will start once again. At present, I am sitting on the sidelines waiting for a trend to develop as this market has been choppy over the last several weeks as investors are awaiting next week’s interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve which will certainly send high volatility back into this market. However, avoid this commodity at this time & look at other markets that are beginning to trend which are very few and far between presently. Silver prices are trading below their 20-day but still above their 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is mixed as many commodities at the current time have choppy chart patterns as I have few trade recommendations as there is so much uncertainty on any given day creating very few trends.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it’s so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market allowing you to place a stop loss relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure as I like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loss.

Corn Futures

Corn futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3.41 a bushel while currently trading at 3.32 down about 9 cents for the trading week as prices have been stuck in a trading range over the last 2 months. Corn prices are trading right at their 20 day but still about $.40 below their 100-day moving average as there is very little fresh fundamental news to dictate short-term price action as the USDA reported that the United States will produce about 15.1 billion bushels which is another record crop which will start to be harvested here in the next couple of weeks. I don’t think there’s money to be made in this commodity here in the short-term. At present, I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market. I do not like trading choppy markets as they are extremely difficult to trade successfully in my opinion as the true breakout is above 3.44 which has been hit twice over the last couple months only to fail as the chart structure is very solid at present so keep a close eye on this market as we could be entering into a bullish position soon relatively soon.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the October contract settled last Friday in New York at 19.99 while currently trading at 21.28 up about 130 points for the trading week & up 80 points this Friday afternoon breaking out of a 2-month consolidation hitting a fresh contract high. I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time. However, the trend clearly has turned to the upside in my opinion. The problem with this market is the chart structure is poor at the 10-day low stands at 19.60 which is about 170 points away or $1,900 per contract plus slippage and commission which is too high in my opinion for this commodity, so I will be patient and wait for a price pullback before entering. Sugar prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is higher as prices have been consolidating for quite some time and now have broken out. I’m certainly not recommending any type of short position as that would be countertrend trading which is very dangerous over the long haul so I will wait for some type of price pull back there for lowering monetary risk. This has been an impressive rally especially due to the fact that the U.S dollar is up 50 points which is a negative influence on commodity prices, but fundamentally speaking sugar has huge demand as worldwide production numbers have been falling as the funds now are pushing this market to new highs.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Coffee Futures

Coffee futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 151.15 a pound while currently trading at 148.10 down about 300 points for the trading week hitting a 2 week low as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines in this market over the last several months as prices really have gone nowhere. If you have been following any of my previous blogs you understand that I have a bullish bias to the upside as I do think coffee prices are headed higher, but prices have stalled around the 155 level twice over the last 3 months. I will wait for better chart structure to develop before entering into a new position. Prices are trading below their 20-day but still above their 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is mixed so be patient and wait for a real breakout to occur which could take some time as we are starting to enter the volatile months in coffee as dry weather is now hitting key coffee-growing regions in Brazil which should send high volatility back into this market once again. If prices break the 155 level, I will be looking at entering a bullish position while placing my stop loss at the 10 low so keep a close eye on this market.
TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Trading Theory

If you follow this rule you will have a chance of being successful over the course of time, if you don’t follow this rule you will be sure to lose your money quickly. This rule is simple Do Not OVERTRADE EVER for this is an easy way to lose all your capital quickly. My definition of over trading is risking too much money on any given trade, for example if you are trading a $100,000 dollar account and you place a gold trade today you should limit your loses to 2% of the account value which in this case is $2,000 which allows you to be wrong on many trades and still be around to play another day. In futures and option trading you will have losing trades that is for certain so make sure you manage those losses and move on to another trade.

If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 312-224-8140 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or visit www.seeryfutures.com

Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone #: 312-224-8140
[email protected]

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every investor. My opinion in this blog are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any futures or option contracts.