Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Monday, the 31st of October.
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Give us a call today at 877–219–1482 for a free consultation and see if personal coaching is right for you. The call is free and the consultation is free.
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Ex-governor Corzine bets big on sovereign debt and loses.
The big story today: Is MF Global declaring bankruptcy based on their sovereign debt exposure? How can one brokerage company, which MF Global was basically spun off from, become a sovereign debt player to the tune of $50 billion? Well, it's all about leverage and huge egos, in this case Corzine's ego. Former governer of New Jersey, Jon Corzine essentially made a huge bet at the derivatives tables and lost! This is what happens when you let egos get involved in the markets over common sense.
In today's video, we're going to look at MF Global and show you just how our Trade Triangles were giving clear and concise signals that all was not well. These signals happened months ago as I will show you in today's video.
As many of you know, we have been criticized for not getting super bullish on the financials, as it looked as though they had broken out. We stuck to our basic beliefs and according to our Trade Triangle technology, the financials hadn't broken out to the upside. Having a disciplined approach by far and away is the winning strategy to have in today's markets.
You may recall our comments about how we go from "the world that is coming to an end", to instant euphoria. Things don't change quite that fast in the real world of trading. The overall trend continues to be negative in the equity markets. The overall trend in the gold market continues to be positive.
Okay, now let's go to the charts and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
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S&P 500 INDEX
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OUR VIEW: A sucker rally, or the real thing?
It remains to be seen whether this rally is for real. I think it is safe to say that the jury is still out on this index. Intermediate traders should be on the sidelines waiting for a new Trade Triangle short signal. Long-term traders should either be in cash or continue to hold short positions in this index.
See today's S&P 500 Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
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Suggested S&P 500 Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF's: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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SILVER (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Fibonacci Retracement of 61.8% = 36.77
We are a little concerned about the Long-Legged Doji line that was put in place last Friday in this market. The market action yesterday (Sunday, remember the spot market trades 6 days a week) confirmed that we have put in an interim top for the moment. The Fibonacci level to watch this week is $36.77 which represents a 61.8% rally. I think people who want to trade the metals are probably better off looking at the gold market. Generally speaking, the major trend for this metal continue to be negative while the intermediate trend is in conflict based on our Trade Triangles. Long-term traders should continue to hold short positions in silver with appropriate stops.
See today's Silver Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70
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Suggested SILVER Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long AGQ) (Short ZSL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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GOLD (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Short-term pullback in a longterm bull market.
The $1700 level in spot gold remains a key level of support, in our opinion. A move below that level would throw into question the viability of a strong close towards the end of the year. We are looking for gold to trade upwards to the $1,800 level providing that all our Trade Triangles remain positive. The gold market appears to be telling us to be very concerned about what is happening in Europe. Key area to watch for on gold on the upside is $1,770. This level represents a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Long-term and intermediate term trends remain positive for this precious metal. Intermediate and long-term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
See today's Gold Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85
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Suggested GOLD Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF's:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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COPPER (DECEMBER)
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OUR VIEW: Fibonacci stops copper cold at 3.7542
We decided to include the December contract for Copper in our daily commentary, as we felt it is a very good indicator of economic trends. We are tracking using our Trade Triangle technology as well as our Williams% R indicator and Donchian trading channels. The sharp downside move today was from the Fibonacci level of 3.7542, which is a 61.8% retracement. Generally speaking, the major trend for this metal continue to be negative, while the intermediate trend is in conflict based on our Trade Triangles. Long-term traders should continue to hold short positions in copper with appropriate stops.
See today's Copper Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70
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Suggested Copper Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long JJC)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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CRUDE OIL (DECEMBER)
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OUR VIEW: Crude Oil mixed bag
The crude oil market, December contract appears to be having problems right around the $94-$95 a barrel level. On the downside we would need a close below $90 to see some further downside momentum. The potential exists for this market to pull back based on what happens in both Europe and the United States. If economic indicators continue to indicate a further slowing or sluggishness in the economy, we expect that the longer-term Trade Triangle will begin to exert more downside pressure. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines and long-term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.
See today's Crude Oil Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
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Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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DOLLAR INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Dollar is King for the day
With the news of MF Global declaring bankruptcy and the fact that Europe hasn't even come close to solving its problems, the rush was once again back into the dollar and the dollar index. As indicated last week, the rush to get rid of dollars in our opinion was somewhat irrational and over exuberant. While our longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains in a positive mode our intermediate term weekly Trade Triangle remains negative. Long-Term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.
See today's Dollar Index Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
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Suggested DOLLAR INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
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OUR VIEW: FIB Resistance reverses this index to the downside.
The 324.97 level, which is a key Fibonacci level was enough to make this index reverse back down. The move outside of the Donchian trading channel was a little bit suspect given that our longer-term Trade Triangle remains negative. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines. Long-Term traders should maintain short positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
See today's REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
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Suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short CMD)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves.
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Ask yourself this question, IS PERSONAL COACHING RIGHT FOR ME?
Give us a call today at 877–219–1482 for a free consultation and see if personal coaching is right for you. The call is free and the consultation is free.
You can watch my personal invitation to you about one-on-one coaching right here.
http://www.marketclubcoaching.com/now/
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This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub and I'll see you tomorrow, right here with my mid-day update. Have a great trading day.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com
Why is it that your comments for the S & P this weekend mention intermediate traders should be out mof the market looking for a green monthly to get long and Adam's PM updates mention that they should be looking for ma new weekly Trade Triangle short signal? I know the trade triangles will be what they are, but ino seems to be leading the look aren't they?
Once upon a time, there was a country called Greece... and also Spain... oh, and did I forget to mention Italy and Portugal and... Sure, Greece may have been the piece on the bottom that was put on top, but now the rest of the game continues like Jenga... "put a piece on the bottom and you put it on top, you take a block from the middle and you put it on top... it teeters and it totters as you build it up... til someone knocks it over thats when you stop, but you you start all over putting blocks on top."
Wish someone knew this wasn't a game!