Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 4th of November.
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TGIF! Groupon goes public, Jon Corzine resigns and the money mystery goes on at MF GLOBAL.
I think many traders will agree this has been one heck of a week, with referendums coming and going. If that was not enough, we had the G-20 meeting, John Corzine resigning and MF global going down the tubes, amongst a whole slew of other problems.
I think it's interesting to note that the sharp down move we witnessed in the markets on Monday and Tuesday, was followed by two sharp upward days which basically took the market back to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. We will discuss and illustrate that point in today's video.
On the equity side, the lines are very clearly etched, with the $1220 area being a major area of support for the S&P 500 and the $1280 level now resistance.
As we go into this weekend, I believe a lot of traders will be very nervous holding positions, and I would not be surprised to see a lot of squaring up before the close today.
The markets continue to bounce emotionally from euphoria, to "the world is coming to an end" and that is creating lot's of problems for short-term traders. Eventually all of this indecision will come into focus and solid trends will emerge in the US and the European markets.
One item of interest, out of the seven markets we track, only two of them were higher for the week, one was the Gold market and the other was the Dollar index.
Now, let's go to the charts and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.
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S&P 500 INDEX
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OUR VIEW: $1260 resistance - $1220 support
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $1285.09
MKT LOWER FOR THE WEEK
Yesterday's rally in the S&P 500 took this market back up to a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, where the market found resistance. We would view a close today below $1237 as negative for this index. We still believe that the $1220 level holds the key for the S&P 500. With a Chart Analysis Score of +55 we are in a trading range which could be very broad at this time. Intermediate traders should be on the sidelines waiting for a new Trade Triangle short signal. Long-term traders should either be in cash or continue to hold short positions in this index.
See today's S&P 500 Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
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Suggested S&P 500 Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF's: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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SILVER (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Trading Range
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $35.28
MKT LOWER FOR THE WEEK
The fact that silver is lower for the week, our comments remain the same as yesterday. The spot silver market remains in a broad trading range bound by $32 an ounce on the downside and $36 an ounce on the upside. With our Chart Analysis Score reading +55, we seen no clear-cut direction at the moment in this metal. We expect to see more volatility and a close below $32 as a sign of further weakness. Generally speaking, the major trend for this metal continue to be negative while the intermediate trend is in conflict based on our Trade Triangles. Long-term traders should continue to hold short positions in silver with appropriate stops.
See today's Silver Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trend = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60
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Suggested SILVER Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long AGQ) (Short ZSL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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GOLD (SPOT)
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OUR VIEW: Resistance at $1,770 basis spot
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $1,742.90
MKT HIGHER FOR THE WEEK
Gold was one of only two markets we track that is higher for the week. The Chart Analysis Score for gold remains at +100, indicating to us to be very concerned about what is happening in Europe and the financial markets. Key area to watch for in gold on the upside is $1,770. This level represents a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Long-term and intermediate term trends remain positive for this precious metal. Intermediate and long-term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
See today's Gold Video Here.
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Monthly trade triangles for Long-term trends = Positive
weekly trade triangles for intermediate term trends = Positive
daily trade triangles for short-term trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
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Suggested GOLD Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF's:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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COPPER (DECEMBER)
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OUR VIEW: $3.50 now key support
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $3.7025
MKT LOWER FOR THE WEEK
The copper market is lower on the week reflecting the weaker trends in the equity markets. Copper continues to move sideways in a trading range. Copper generally reflects the economic conditions and as such is influenced by equity prices. With a Chart Analysis Score of -55, this metal is in a trading range. Should we see this market close below the $3.50 area, we would view that close in a negative light looking for more pressure for the next several weeks. Generally speaking, the major trend for this metal continue to be negative while the intermediate trend is in conflict. Long-term traders should continue to hold short positions in copper with appropriate stops.
See today's Copper Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
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Suggested Copper Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long JJC)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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CRUDE OIL (DECEMBER)
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OUR VIEW: Trading Range
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $93.03
MKT MIXED TO HIGHER FOR THE WEEK
The crude oil market continues to inch higher, but seems to lack any strong conviction on the upside. Our short term Trade Triangle moved into a positive position moving the Chart Analysis Score to a +70. However, the December contract for crude oil remains in a trading range bound by $90 a barrel support on the downside, and $95 a barrel resistance on the upside. With a score of +70 this market maybe trying to move out of its broad trading range. Depending what happens to equity markets and the global economy will likely be reflected in this commodity. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines and long-term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.
See today's Crude Oil Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70
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Suggested Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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DOLLAR INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Resistance at $77.50
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $75.06
MKT HIGHER FOR THE WEEK
This index really needs to close over near term resistance at $77.50 to get moving on the upside again. For the past four days, we have seen this market bounce back and forth as it consolidates its recent gains. Today we expect to see the dollar index trade between the $77.5 area and the $76.00 - 7650 support level. A Chart Analysis Score of +75 indicates that this market is in a trading range bound by the levels mentioned. Obviously what is taking place in Europe as a major impact on this particular index. We still feel that is going to be resolved in a negative way for the euro and expect this index to continue higher in the long-term. While our longer-term monthly Trade Triangle remains positive, our intermediate term weekly Trade Triangle remains in conflict. Long-Term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.
See today's Dollar Index Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 75
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Suggested DOLLAR INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
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OUR VIEW: Trading Range
CLOSE LAST FRIDAY: $323.17
MKT LOWER FOR THE WEEK
Like many of the other markets we're tracking right now, the CRB index is in a trading range with a Chart Analysis Score of +70. Resistance is evident at the $325 level and support should be yesterday's low which was around $315 area. Look for these levels to contain the market for the next few days. As indicated a few days ago, the move outside of the Donchian trading channel was a little bit suspect given that our longer-term Trade Triangle remains negative. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines. Long-Term traders should maintain short positions with the appropriate money management stops in place.
See today's REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Video Here.
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Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70
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Suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF's: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF's: (Long) (Short CMD)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity is some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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Market proven, Trade Triangles catch the big moves.
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Chart Analysis Score: 50 - 65 Trading Range
Chart Analysis Score: 70 - 80 Emerging Trend
Chart Analysis Score: 85 - 100 Strong Trend
This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub and I'll see you tomorrow, right here with my weekend update. Have a profitable trading day.
All the best,
Adam Hewison
President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com
Very simple.
Today's market is like casino.
Nobody knows where the markets are going.
Even Marketclub.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME TO PUT THIS THINGS TOGETHER.IT SHOULD BE A TIME OF WATCHFULNESS.
hello,i hope gold n silver takes the similar move,if go is bullish for long term then how can silver be hold in short?if silver is bearish then how we can hold long on gold? moreover marketclub has predicted to go long in US dollar index then is it good to hold long position in gold?i hope i will get clearified.
thanks
sudarshan dhakal
nepal
This is a day traders paradise!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm not sure how long term traders do it right now... buy and hold to what end? If you're willing to take 15% losses, you'll get them for sure. I prefer a more nimble approach in these market conditions. After only a couple of days, the 5 for 5% guarantee is going great!
We are entered in a so fragile section that no one can perfectly pridict any movement of next day, next week, next month, next quarter or even next year.so prevailing movement will be failed to help for any specific future pridictions either by Technical or through Fundamental point of views.
So many showking surprises are yet to come, each and every day, we will find some different news or some different data, because every thing in all sectors across the world is spoiled by hiding reality, just cant trust on anything.
BE PREPAIRED TO FOUND "NEVER BEFORE SEEN" EVENTS