Hello fellow traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Thursday, the 19th of January.
How to become a MarketClub STAR!
Have the banks reversed?
How MarketClub's Trade Triangles got the moves right in this sector.
MORGAN STANLEY (MS) and BANK OF AMERICA (BAC).
Is Gold losing its shine?
We look at how our Trade Triangles are performing in gold.
3 Stocks on the move.
F5 NETWORKS (FFIV), ROCKWELL COLLINS (COL), and JOHNSON CONTROLS (JCI).
See how our Trade Triangles analyze these three stocks.
Always remember …
DON'T FIGHT THE MARKET … TRADE THE MARKET!!
Now, let's go to the charts and MarketClub's Trade Triangle Technology.
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S&P 500 INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend +100
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
The upward march in this index continues, to the surprise of many bears. We now have an upside target in the next two or three months between $1380 and $1400 for this market. That is not to say it will be straight up from here, we would expect to see pullbacks and expect the $1290 to $1300 levels to now act as support. With all three of our Trade Triangles green, it is signaling that a bull market is underway. Long and Intermediate term traders should now be holding long positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
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Watch today’s S&P 500 Video Here.
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Suggested S&P 500 Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long SPY) (Short SH)
2 x Leveraged ETF’s: (Long SSO)(Short SDS)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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SILVER (SPOT)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range +60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bearish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
We are finding it increasingly hard to get bullish on silver based on the current fluctuation between trading range and emerging trend. We are going to wait until all of our Trade Triangles are green to get long this market. Today's action looks as though it's a blow-off and a reversal. A Chart Analysis Score for silver at +60 indicates a trading range and our long-term monthly Trade Triangle remains negative. This particular indicator has done extremely well in the past. Long-term term traders should be in short positions in silver with appropriate money management stops. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines.
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Watch today’s Silver Video Here.
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Suggested SILVER Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long SLV) (Short the ETF SLV)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long AGQ) (Short ZSL)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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GOLD (SPOT)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range +60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bearish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
As we pointed out on last night's MarketClub TV show, a long-term downtrend line drawn from the highs of September 5, 2011 and intersecting the November 13th and December 4th highs, continues to be the overriding factor in this market. That factor along with our negative monthly Trade Triangle continues to act as an inhibitor for this market on the upside. With a Chart Analysis Score of +60, this market is in a trading range. Long-term term traders should be in short positions in gold with appropriate money management stops. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines.
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Watch today’s Gold Video Here.
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Suggested GOLD Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long GLD) (Short the ETF GLD)
Leveraged ETF’s:(Long UGL) (Short GLL)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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COPPER (MARCH)
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend +100
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
Yesterday turned all of our Trade Triangles green, indicating that copper has bottomed out and perhaps the economic cycle is now on an upswing. As stated numerous times, copper generally reflects economic conditions, and as such is influenced by equity prices. With equity prices moving higher today, it is in return reflected in higher copper prices. The market action looks as though it has created a base to go higher in the future. All three Trade Triangles are in a positive mode for this market. With a Score of +100, we are in a strong trend for this commodity.
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Watch today’s Copper Video Here.
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Suggested Copper Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long JJC)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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CRUDE OIL (MARCH)
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend +90
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bullish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range | 70 – 80 Emerging Trend | 85 – 100 Strong Trend
Our comments haven't changed since yesterday. The consolidation in crude oil above the $98 a barrel level continues. We are longer term positive on this market, however it must move over resistance at $104 to get upside momentum into high gear. With a Chart Analysis Score of +90, this market is in a strong trend and with all our Trade Triangles in a positive mode we expect we will see this market breakout to the upside. Long and intermediate-term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.
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Watch today’s Crude Oil Video Here.
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Suggested Crude Oil Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long USO) (Short the ETF USO)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long UCO) (Short DTO)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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How to become a MarketClub STAR!
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DOLLAR INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range +55
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bullish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bearish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range : 70 – 80 Emerging Trend : 85 – 100 Strong Trend
The support we discussed in yesterday's comments was broken today as the long-term support trend line, which began on October 26, 2011, was broken to the downside. This market has to close over $80.72 to negate the break below its trend line and we are not confident it will accomplish that today. Our Trade Triangle technology has been long this index for quite sometime and remains in a bullish mode. Long and intermediate term traders should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.
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Watch today’s Dollar Index Video Here.
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Suggested DOLLAR INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long UUP) (Short UDN)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long) (Short)
Futures: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
Options: Options Contracts are available to trade this market.Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range -55
TRADE TRIANGLES: Long-Term = Bearish | Intermediate Term = Bullish | Short-Term = Bearish
MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM: 50 – 65 Trading Range : 70 – 80 Emerging Trend : 85 – 100 Strong Trend
With a Chart Analysis Score of -55, this index has once again fallen into a trading range. We suspect that the $306-$307 levels are going to lend more support to this market on any further weakness. For this market to get going on the upside, it must move over the $316 level. Our long term Trade Triangle remains negative for this index, while our intermediate signal is green and calling for higher prices. Long-term traders should hold short positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
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Watch today’s REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Video Here.
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Suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX Trading Instruments:
Non Leveraged ETF’s: (Long CRBQ) (Short the ETF CRBQ)
Leveraged ETF’s: (Long) (Short CMD)
Futures & Options: Contracts are available to trade this market. Contact your broker
WARNING: Liquidity in some ETFs is very thin. Contact your broker for more information.
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PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING
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Give us a call at:
US Toll Free: 1-877-219-1482
International: 1-801-341-3981
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This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub and I'll see you tomorrow, right here with my mid-day update. Have a profitable trading day.
Take care everyone,
Adam Hewison
President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com
Those leaving comments about "predictions" are missing the point. Marketclub does not predict...CNBC does, and you'd be bankrupt in a month listening to them.
Marketclub tells you the prevailing trend. Obviously trends change. That's why Adam emphasizes stops. You'll lose over and over again, possibly even over half the time. But you limit your loss each time with appropriate stops.
Then you tag oil at $76 and ride it to over $100 for a $25000 gain per contract, which more than pays for the small losses.
Money management is key. If you risk more than 2% on a single trade, you're trading too heavy. That's gambling, not trading. You might as well go to Vegas and put a chunk of money on "Red" on the roulette wheel.
I know a trader who is right 38.2% of the time and calmly takes in millions per year. Being right isn't the secret. And predictions are a hopeless cause.
Cheers.
To DGDye,
Are you a MarketClub user? If so, are you able to place stops at a level of, say, 2% risk and not get stopped out too often? Also, are you able to trade MarketClub's triangles with a small account -- say $10k?
What you say is very apt. Adam expresses his personal feelings, but ultimately it's the markets that decide. But Adam also emphasizes that it's the charts that sum up investor sentiment, not your personal view or that of predictive software. In which case you can only follow the trend. If you can get in on a nice trend, then you should allow the instrument to breathe a little before taking profits (but cut the trade as soon as the stock retraces beyond your stop). In that way you can tip the balance of your account to the upside to offset your losing trades.
Do you close each of your positions at the end of each trading day? A money management stop of 2% will not help you if the position gaps down more than 2% in overnight trading.
Example: Buy 100 shares of X @ share price of $10 on monday. Tuesday morning X gaps down and opens for trading at $9.50 per share. One has no control over stops between when trading ends at 4:00 pm and opens the following morning at 9:30 am.
I am interested to know how other traders handle this as well.
Thank you in advance for your feedback
Hi Adam,
I disagree with your green triangles for a bullish S&P. I'm an Elliott Waver and thus I am expecting a very sharp change to the downside in the S&P within 2-5 days and a resumption of its bearish journey for the next several months/years. regards, Gary
Bless you, Gary. I am really bearish and everything I look at indicates a bottoming to the bearish ETF's.
If this software did accurately predict the direction of the market we would all be millionaires.
Ginny, do you really think a piece of software is really going to predict the direction of the market?
Hi James, No.
James, Take a look at this site:
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/rate_of_change_price.php
I have spent time back testing using the ROC indicator along with the 21 day EMA, WMS%R and MACD. Using them altogether gives a great indication of when to enter a trade and when to exit. Of course.....it doesn't work 100% of the time.
From Aug through Nov 2011, we were being told the S&P would fall to as low as 900. Now just 1 1/2 mths later, we are being told it could go over 1300. It is very difficult to trade with your trade triangles and your comments when one buys according to the trend as you present it, sell covered calls for insurance and then do an abrupt turn around. Very disappointed in this system. The same thing happened with crude. If we use market club trade triangles, should we never sell calls against our positions so we can turn on a dime. I feel very frustrated as one of your paying clients.
Thank-you Adam for your daily chart reports. It helps us, who are trying to help others, with analysis of what direction precious metals might go.