NASDAQ closes at its best levels in over a decade … should you trust this move?

16 thoughts on “NASDAQ closes at its best levels in over a decade … should you trust this move?”

1. Man I read all of these posts here, and I must say wow there’s a lot of people posting here that don’t know how the markets work or how market club works. Adam does a great job on showing us how to read the markets with technical analyses. When Adam says “Wait to see how this plays out” what else you want him to say, it’s the truth. We have to wait to see what the markets next move is going to be, no one knows what tomorrow is going the bring.

   The trade triangles aren’t fortune tellers, that’s what fortune cookies are for. No system will spot the bottoms or tops of the trend, Bob Connolly says it best. “The triangles identify trends already in place” and for that the trend must start before the triangles can trigger.

   1. Everything you say is fine; however, I expect a more sophisticated analysis. I realize that for a safer entrance into the market, we need certain indicators to confirm an entrance. Maybe these traders that you are calling confused are just wanting more precise market analysis. I am a paying member of market club and have posted a specific question to Adam about the triangles. He has yet to respond to my question on this blog. Maybe it would clear up problems that other market club members are having. He did, however, say for his members to "call." Not one of these traders who have posted are expecting Adam to tell us exactly where the market is going. The most knowledgeable chartist is unable to do that.

2. how the hell can u keep saying gold and silver is mixed to lower with +60-70 and oil and dollar mixed with -60/70; makes no sense

3. i think some people are confused.the triangles identify trends already in place they dont predict the future the best position in the markets is with a long term trend.the trend is your friend

4. Adam, I enjoy your daily market commentary and the weekly wrap up using the weekly candlesticks. You noted the "golden cross" when reviewing the S&P 500 and the DJIA in your weekly wrap up. The crosses occurred in April of 2010, not in the last few days. The chart showed you were using SMA200 and SMA50. You were also using weekly candlesticks. The Market Club chart will use the candlestick as the basic unit for the SMA. The golden crosses in April of 2010 were the 50 week / 200 week golden crosses.

   I look forward to your future offerings.

   1. Options Trader,

      I was referring to the "Golden Cross" which refers to the daily 50 and 200 day moving averages, which crossed only last week. On the weekly charts you see a 50 week and 200 week moving averages. Hope this helps.

      All the best,
      Adam

5. In my opinion Adam's use of the words, "Wait to see how this plays out" is one of the most important learnings from his videos.

   Those words remind us that we will lose if we predict. Instead, we should use a series of "if-then" questions in our trading. For example, IF oil closes below $90, THEN I will do this.

   To spend all your time drawing lines on charts when the market will tell you quite clearly what it is doing would seem counterproductive.

   Imagine buying a stock is like planning a picnic in March. The general trend for the temperature and sunshine might be up, but there's no guarantee that this Saturday you will have a warm and sunny day for your picnic. You can draw charts based on 200 years of data showing the percentage of Saturdays in March that were sunny and warm; and you can draw lines on those charts showing a relationship between the change in temperature from January to March week-by-week. But despite all this, it could be rainy and cold on Saturday.

   The best you can do is to follow the monthly trend with a weekly trend and a daily trend. If the temperature suddenly sinks on Thursday and your sunny index goes dark, it's probably best to make other plans for Saturday.

   Of course, the chartists out there would still go ahead with the picnic. And while they're standing in the cold and the rain holding a soggy hot dog, they would point out to you that they expect the sun to shine any moment because their charts told them it would.

   Stick with the trend.

   Cheers.

   1. True chartists wait for confirmation of the direction of the market. They don't jump in with both feet before that confirmation. Your analysis of chartists is incorrect. The monthly, weekly, and daily trend turned bearish just in time for a loss when all the same trending triangles turned bullish. If attention had been paid to the 126 sma and the ROC, we would have known when to take our profits and wait for confirmation of a bull market, instead of taking a loss after the bull market had started. Do you know how important the Elliott Wave may be to your decision whether or not to enter or exit a trade? Techhnical indicators can alert us to an overbought or oversold condition and reversal. Do you think those trade triangles are always timely and that after we get the 100+ green monthly triangle, the stock will definitely without any doubt go up. Study a few and then let me know whether the technical indicators wouldn't have helped. By the way, those resistance and support levels (lines on the chart) are very informative.

      Best wishes and Good trading to you, dgdye.

6. What gets me abut the triangles while discussing with others is the fact that we are supposed to just accept them as some magical tool. There are hundreds of companies out there claiming that their mousetrap, tool, arrow, triangle, etc.etc. is the real deal. It would add credibility if we could have some statistical history. Are they 50% accurate?, 70%?, 99%?
   What are they based on?

   1. Peter,

      The Trade Triangle signals are produced by a triggering of our proprietary algorithm. The RED and GREEN triangles signify changes in trend on a monthly, weekly and daily level. The triangles are produced for all 230,000+ symbols we track. Once the triangles are produced, they are never removed and are able to be backtested according to your own unique trading style.

      MarketClub suggests a filtering approach when following the Trade Triangle signals. The filtering approach differs between security types and trading style.
      The Trade Triangle algorithm is comprised of weighted factors that include, but are not limited to price change, percentage change, moving averages, and new highs/lows.
      GREEN triangles suggest positive trends.

      RED triangles suggest negative trends.

      The Trade Triangle algorithm is not intended to catch tops and bottoms, but instead identifies the majority of a swing trend. By allowing the trend to mature before a triangle is issued, we can trust that the trend is more steady and stable.

      Best,
      Jeremy

      1. Hi Jeremy, I think that you have really spotlighted the problem with the use of the trade triangles "The Trade Triangle algorithm is not intended to catch tops and bottoms, but instead identifies the majority of a swing trend. By allowing the trend to mature before a triangle is issued...." This is one of the reasons that unless they are in an extended long trend, we are getting in late to the trade. Sometimes it is so mature that we are getting in about the time the trend is ready to reverse. That is the reason the technical indicators are so important to check before just relying on the triangles.

   2. Peter,
      I could tell you but I would rather you see the magic for yourself. You can try MarketClub here.

      Here are the rules.

      How "Trade Triangles" work in stocks.
      The major "Trade Triangle" to watch in trading stocks is the monthly "Trade Triangle" as this triangle determines the trend. We use the weekly "Trade Triangles" for timing purposes. Let me give you an example, if the last monthly "Trade Triangle" is green this indicates that the major trend is up for that stock. You would then use the initial monthly "Trade Triangle" as an entry point and use the weekly red "Trade Triangle" as a stop out point. You would only reenter a long position if and when a green "Trade Triangle" kicked in. You would then use a weekly red "Trade Triangle" as a stop out point. Providing that a monthly green "Trade Triangle" is in place the trend is positive for the stock. The reverse is true if a red monthly "Trade Triangle" shows that the trend is down. You would then use the weekly "Trade Triangle" for entering and exiting the market.

      All the best,
      Adam

      1. Hi Adam, I think I am confused about the use of the trade triangles. Here is my understanding. When a stock has a 100+ rating, this is the best time to enter the position, and then get out if the weekly triangle turns red. Is it best to enter a trade when the monthly triangle is green and the weekly triangle initiates an entrance with a green triangle? Can you clear this up for me please. Thank you.

7. Hi Adam, In your analysis of the market, why don't you include the technicals to validate the trade triangles. Many times I have looked at what you have presented and have noted that the market/stock/etf is overbought, MACD is bearish, etc. Can you please give us some substance for our money and discontinue saying, "let's see how this plays out." You were so confident in your trade triangles when you continued to tell us that the market was going to rollover including the S & P and oil. Everyday we heard the same scenario. Now, we are not hearing any warnings that we have a great resistance to overcome to continue into a full fledged bull market, which may happen. You never mention elliott waves. Why is this? I just expect more than just looking at your trade triangles and hearing we'll have to see how it plays out as good trading advice. Thank you.

   1. Amen! Too often the indicators are opposite what the triangles are telling us. Who is right? MarketClub is quick to point out when it is accurate. I've done backtesting that shows I'd have lost money following the trianges. Check out BAC.

      1. Mike Sunday,

         I have to take you to task about not making money in BAC. We knocked it out of the park with this market last year. I am not sure what you are looking at, but you cannot be looking at the Trade Triangles and how they are supposed to be used.I also see that you are not a current member of MarketClub. How were you using our Trade Triangles? Here is our recommended method.

         How "Trade Triangles" work in stocks.
         The major "Trade Triangle" to watch in trading stocks is the monthly "Trade Triangle" as this triangle determines the trend. We use the weekly "Trade Triangles" for timing purposes. Let me give you an example, if the last monthly "Trade Triangle" is green this indicates that the major trend is up for that stock. You would then use the initial monthly "Trade Triangle" as an entry point and use the weekly red "Trade Triangle" as a stop out point. You would only reenter a long position if and when a green "Trade Triangle" kicked in. You would then use a weekly red "Trade Triangle" as a stop out point. Providing that a monthly green "Trade Triangle" is in place the trend is positive for the stock. The reverse is true if a red monthly "Trade Triangle" shows that the trend is down. You would then use the weekly "Trade Triangle" for entering and exiting the market.

         If you use the Trade Triangles like this and are disciplined you will make money.

         All the best,
         Adam

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