Hello fellow traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, co-founder of MarketClub with your mid-day market update for Friday, the 23rd of March.
The S&P 500 index is lower for the week, breaking a five week winning streak.
The big question is... have the equity markets topped out?
Iranian oil exports drop, pushing crude higher.
This story is just developing. Stay tuned for updates and action on this market.
TODAY'S MARKET MOVING SECTORS:
CONSUMER GOODS: +0.36%
SERVICES: -0.29%
HEALTHCARE: -0.26%
ENERGY: +0.97%
TECHNOLOGY: -0.37%
FINANCIAL: +0.01%
INDUSTRIAL GOODS: 0.00%
MATERIALS: +0.94%
UTILITIES: -0.02%
3 Stocks on the move today:
CONSOLIDATED ENERGY (CNX), MORGAN STANLEY (MS), and NABOR INDUSTRIES (NBR).
Did MarketClub's Trade Triangle technology get it right on these three stocks?
Now, let's analyze the major markets and stocks on the move using MarketClub's Trade Triangle Technology.
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S&P 500 INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend +85
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bullish | Daily = Bearish
For the first time in five weeks, the S&P 500 index is more than likely to close lower for the week. It's not unreasonable to expect some profit taking from a move that went straight up from $1,340 to $1,414 without any kind of pullback. With a Score of +85, this market is bordering a strong trend to the upside. Long-term and intermediate term traders should remain positive on this index. Longer-term we expect this market to move up to the $1,550 to $1,600 level by late May, early June based on our cyclic work. With both our monthly and weekly Trade Triangles green, we are in bullish mode.
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See suggested S&P 500 trading instruments HERE.
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Give us a call at: 1-877-219-1482
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SILVER (SPOT)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range -60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bearish | Daily = Bearish
Barring a strong rally on the close, the silver market is going to close out the week on a negative note. This will be the fourth week in a row that silver prices have closed lower. We are still not ruling out a 61.8% correction back down to the $30.40 area on the spot silver market. With a Score of -60, this market is now in a trading range. Only our long-term Trade Triangle remains positive on silver. This particular indicator has done extremely well in the past. Long term traders should be holding long positions in silver with appropriate money management stops.
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See suggested SILVER trading instruments HERE.
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GOLD (SPOT)
BIG PICTURE: Strong Trend -85
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bearish | Weekly = Bearish | Daily = Bullish
The gold market is barely higher for the week and we would not be surprised to see this market continue to be on the defensive next week. We still think that this market is headed down to test the $1,620 area, which is close to a major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,617.34. With a Score of -85, the gold market is in an strong trend to the downside. We are expecting gold to be on defensive for the balance of March. With two of our three Trade Triangles negative, we expect this market to move lower. Long-term and intermediate term traders should be in short positions in gold with appropriate money management.
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See suggested GOLD trading instruments HERE.
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COPPER (MAY 2012)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range -60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bearish | Daily = Bearish
Copper has been making lows every seven or eight days and the current pullback we witnessed yesterday reflects that cycle. This market is heavily oversold, similar to earlier periods in its short-term cycle. Since late January, the copper market has been moving sideways in a broad trading range defined by $3.70 on the downside and $3.95 on the upside. A move out of this range is needed to develop a strong trend. A close in copper this week over the $3.95 level sets this market up to challenge the $4.25 to $4.30 areas. We continue to view the longer-term trend in copper as positive. The market action looks as though it has created a large base to move higher in the future. Long term traders should be holding long positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
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See suggested COPPER trading instruments HERE.
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CRUDE OIL (MAY 2012)
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range +60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bearish | Daily = Bearish
ATTENTION: We are now following the MAY crude oil contract. Crude oil has once again moved over the $107 area and is just $.50 away from last week's closing price of $107.66. Should we see the May contract close over $107.66 this week, we would view that as a very positive sign for crude oil. We continue to like the long-term chart formation, which we believe will eventually push this market higher until early April. We are looking for crude oil to make its highs probably somewhere in the April-May period. With a Score of +60, this commodity is in a trading range. With our monthly Trade Triangle still in a positive mode, we expect to see further gains in crude oil. Long term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.
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See suggested CRUDE OIL trading instruments HERE.
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PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING
Free consultation, Free call.
Give us a call at: 1-877-219-1482
International: 1-801-341-3981
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DOLLAR INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range +55
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bullish | Daily = Bearish
A close this week around current levels at $79.31 will be the second week in a row that this index has closed lower for the week. This is somewhat surprising to us, however in our opinion the market remains in an upward trend for the US dollar. A Score of +55 indicates that this index has moved into a trading range and will have to do more work if it is to go higher later. Long term and intermediate term traders using our Trade Triangles should maintain long positions with the appropriate stops in place.
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See suggested DOLLAR INDEX trading instruments HERE.
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REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
BIG PICTURE: Trading Range -60
TRADE TRIANGLES: Monthly = Bullish | Weekly = Bearish | Daily = Bearish
Despite today's strong rally to the upside, this market is still lower for the week. A close this coming week over the $320 level is needed to reignite this market to the upside and would be a strong bullish signal for inflation. We believe the driver of this inflationary trend will be crude oil. With a Score of -60 this index remains in a trading range at the moment. Long-term traders should hold long positions in this index with appropriate money management stops.
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See suggested REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX trading instruments HERE.
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PERSONAL MARKETCLUB COACHING
Free consultation, Free call.
Give us a call at: 1-877-219-1482
International: 1-801-341-3981
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This is Adam Hewison for MarketClub wishing you every success in trading. Tune in tomorrow for my weekend update!
Adam Hewison
President INO.com and co-founder of MarketClub.com
Topped out or waiting for breaking out of the range on the upside?
Hi,
I can read that you stated this about the trednd in the US dollar:
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A close this week around current levels at $79.31 will be the second week in a row that this index has closed lower for the week. This is somewhat surprising to us, however in our opinion the market remains in an upward trend for the US dollar. A Score of +55 indicates that this index has moved into a trading range and will have to do more work if it is to go higher later.
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I think that you might be interested to hear this discussion with Jim Sinclar, please be patient to hear Jim's opinion about SWIFT (6:25), US dollar, Euro and ... .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_irgll_wy9I
Ondrej
Ondrej, thank you for posting this. I just watched this and found it very interesting. I kept wondering why the Euro was not toppling! Have you followed this gentlemen for very long. Do you know if his information is reliable? I have read previously that countries are already using their own currency in contractual agreements.
Jim Sinclair is very honest and reliable, I'm sure that you can find it on your own and if he was right or wrong in the past.
Here is his public blog:
http://www.jsmineset.com/
On Jim's Mineset web site you can also find this video:
Jim Sinclair on the Inflation / Deflation Debate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc-W4Qg6wM4&
More news are slowly coming up (the post from the blog from Jim Sinclair).
“Swift” Kick To The US Dollar:
http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/03/23/swift-kick-to-the-us-dollar/
Today two events took place, one which has the capacity to make the recent low price of gold in the $1630s the low of this reaction (disappointing housing statistics), and another to fuel the gold price into its true 2012 range of $1700 – $2111 by this summer (utilization of selective lock out of the Swift system to India and others).
For fuel into the true 2012 range of $1700 to $2111:
"If a country doesn’t prove it’s making the necessary reductions by the end of June, any institution in that nation that settles petroleum trades through Iran’s central bank will be cut off from the U.S. banking system."
This is terribly ill advised and poorly timed. It smells like a threat of selective lockout via the Swift system.
At a time when the US dollar is sundering as the major international settlement mechanism this is the last thing that dollar managers should consider. Whoever came up with this idea has no appreciation of two points – the weakness of the Western financial system and whatever weapon of war will be used in kind.
The major financial weakness in the US is the level of the US dollar due to sundering use in international contract settlement, the clear and present trend of substituting both the Yuan and Euro as international settlement currencies, and the lack of true economic buyers in the US long bond market.
History will record this decision at this time as a major factor in the final move to financial unwind in the West.
The letdown of the housing report today does not support the majority view that the US is gaining take off speed economically. It is not. It will not and QE will go to infinity, about that there is no question.
Regards,
Jim
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Thank you, Ondrej, for your response and the additional sites. I appreciate it.
Were do I go to view the video? I seem to be going in circles.
Sidon,
As a MarketClub member go to your homepage and click on the video in the Member Video and Tutorial Videos section located on the right hand side of the page. If you want to access the video from the blog just use your MC login info to gain access by logging in using the member login option at the top right of the page.
Best,
Jeremy