Shutdown Or Not, The Fed Abides

Here’s an additional reason to be thankful for the independence of the Federal Reserve. Since the Fed does not receive funding through the congressional budgetary process and is largely self-funded through the interest on its massive government securities portfolio, plus its many other activities, we don’t have to worry that this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting will fall victim to the partial government shutdown.

But how much will actually happen at the meeting that can be expected to move the financial markets?

One thing we do know is that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the meeting ends at 2:00 EST. Last summer Powell announced that he will hold a presser at the end of each of the Fed’s 10 scheduled meetings, not just every three months.

But it’s unlikely that the Fed will raise interest rates at the meeting, after Powell largely put the kibosh on that idea late last year, when under extraordinary pressure from President Trump and just about everyone investor within reach of a microphone he and his Fed colleagues surrendered and said “no mas” to any more monetary tightening for a while. Continue reading "Shutdown Or Not, The Fed Abides"

Top Performing ETFs Of 2018

2018 was a wild year as we saw the markets rise to new all-time highs in the first half of the year only to crash during the last quarter of the year causing the major indexes to all close in the red for the year, for the first time in over a decade. But despite the S&P 500 (SPX) ending the year down 6.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) losing 5.63%, and the NASDAQ (COMP) dropping 3.88% in 2018, more than a handful of Exchange Traded Funds not only performed better than the major averages, but a lot of them put up some very impressive returns.

Let’s take a look at the top five best performing ETFs of 2018 in some different categories the average investor has to choose from.

The following table shows the performance of the top five best performing ETFs in 2018, as well as their performance over the last month, the last three months, the last five and ten years.

Top Performing ETFs 2018

The following table shows the performance of the top five Non-Leveraged ETFs in 2018, as well as their performance over the last month, the last three months, the last five and ten years. Continue reading "Top Performing ETFs Of 2018"

Will Oil Find Support Above $50?

Recent global news regarding Venezuela, China, and global oil supply/production have resulted in the price of Oil pausing over the past few weeks near $53 to $55 ppb. We believe the continued supply glut and uncertainty will result in oil prices falling, briefly, back below $50 ppb before any new price rally begins. Our researchers at The Technical Traders believe historical resistance near $54~55 is strong enough to drive prices lower before new momentum picks up for a renewed price rally.

Oil

Eventually, yes, oil will rally above $55 and attempt to target the $65+ price level. Yet we don’t believe that move is going to happen right now. We believe the global uncertainty; the slowing Chinese economy and the global supply glut will result in a fundamental price decrease before any momentum for an upside price move begins. Our analysis suggests a price move back below $50 ppb, likely targeting the $46~47 level, where basing may occur. Continue reading "Will Oil Find Support Above $50?"

Is Facebook Finally A Buy After The Tech Rout?

Is Facebook (FB) finally de-risked after its self-inflicted data misuse privacy scandal and the rout in the technology sector? Facebook has been mired in privacy scandals, public relations mismanagement and a very public exodus of many high-level departures across the company. If this wasn’t bad enough, Facebook totally dropped the ball on its second quarter conference call, wiping out $119 billion in market capitalization in a single session marking the worst one day drop for any large-cap company in history. This negative backdrop was met with a technology sell-off in the fourth quarter of 2018 culminating into the perfect set-up to knock the stock into bear market territory. Facebook sold-off during these two waves from $218 in July to a low of $123 in December of 2018, logging a 43% decline over this five-month period. Despite the aforementioned stock implosion, Facebook remains one of the most compelling large-cap growth companies posting double-digit growth with P/E and PEG ratios well below its peers. Recently, JPMorgan reiterated Facebook as a “best idea” and expects the stock reach $195 and “climb the wall of worry.” Baird also came out with an outperform rating basing its target of $195 on stabilizing engagement on its Facebook platform and growth in its Instagram property. Facebook has grown its revenues by over 30% for 20 consecutive quarters with its latest quarter coming in at 33% revenue growth. As this revenue streak continues coupled with the dramatic decline in its stock and cheap valuation, I think Facebook is de-risked. The technology cohort has started to show signs of resurgence with Facebook and Netflix (NFLX) leading the pack with plenty of upside for the former.

2018 Disaster

Ancillary fallout emanating from its data misuse scandal involving Cambridge Analytica continued to surface throughout 2018 across the globe in various regions. Security issues affecting 50 million accounts, a lawsuit alleging concealing video admeasurements and increasing EU scrutiny plagued the stock. The original mishandling user data resulted in the stock tumbling from $195 to $152 or ~20% at the time. Facebook appreciated off those data misuse lows and broke out to $220 however this scenario ended abruptly on the heels of its Q2 earnings. Facebook issued a major guide down in growth for the next few quarters tampering growth expectations in the near term. Facebook faced a challenging confluence of slowing revenue growth, margin compression and stagnant daily active users in the near to intermediate term. There was an initiative that had the backing of four large institutional investors to remove Mark Zuckerberg as Facebook’s chairman in the wake of all of these security issues. Continue reading "Is Facebook Finally A Buy After The Tech Rout?"

Silver Update: 1980s Vs. The 2010s

Silver surprised us with a strong Santa Claus Rally. It woke up like an ancient volcano and with a booming eruption. Before that, we proclaimed silver to be dormant compared to a vigorous rival, gold.

Everything changed at the end of 2018 as gold gained 10% from the lows and a weak silver tried to catch up to make the same profit at the very end. Bargain hunters couldn’t pass by this clear market distortion and took their chance to book a nice profit of around 4%.

In my earlier post I updated the medium term gold chart for you. Last time I updated the big chart of silver in October, which was titled dramatically “Fly Or Die” as submissive behavior of silver was leaving less and less hope for investors.

This time I am going to update the silver chart, but using a different approach. You are already familiar with it as I used historical clones with gold and silver before. The latter one was successful. This time it will be extended as I will use two clones instead of one from different historical periods so you can choose.

Let’s start with the distant one.

Chart 1. Silver Futures Monthly: Echo Of the 80s

Silver Update
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

This chart was built in a high resolution, and I recommend you to click on it to open in a new window to see a larger image in details, especially in the right clone (orange box). Continue reading "Silver Update: 1980s Vs. The 2010s"