Category: INO.com Contributors

Crude Oil Closes the Gap

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Back in July, I shared with you a chart of Market Distortion where I put together crude oil and platinum futures. I spotted a disruption of a strong correlation pattern between these two instruments that has been lasting for a quarter of a century.

That post drew your attention with strong support and feedback as readers shared their valuable comments. Below is the graph showing the distribution of your opinion on how the divergence would play out.

Ballot Votes

The majority of readers chose the option that implies the equal move in the opposite direction of both instruments to meet somewhere in between - crude oil should drop to $75 and platinum futures should rocket to $1,200. The second largest bet was on the widening gap.

I prepared for you an updated chart below to see what happened after two months.

Oil Futures vs Platinum Futures Monthly

Source: TradingView

None of the bets have hit it right, although your main choice is still the closest. Indeed, the crude oil futures (black line) did its job fully to close the gap as it almost touched the $75 area. The lowest handle hit was $78 so far.

The counterpart, as it often happens in human relationships, did not meet the other part halfway. The platinum (green line) is still weak as it can’t raise its head to the upside.

Should crude oil do the job for both and drop even lower like a rock to catch up with the metal? Or is platinum quietly accumulating power for a rally? Continue reading "Crude Oil Closes the Gap" →

The Fed Kicks It Up a Notch

Posted on by George Yacik

A long, long time ago — 1992 to be specific — the American media howled with derision when then President George H.W. Bush professed “amazement” at a new supermarket bar code scanner, the coverage of which was supposed to demonstrate that Bush was hopelessly out of touch with the daily lives of ordinary Americans.

To its credit, the Associated Press a few days later tried to correct that impression, but by then the rest of the press had moved on and the falsehood has lived on ever since.

Bush’s supposed gaffe at least had no policy ramifications, although the story didn’t help his reelection efforts that year.

The same can’t be said about President Biden’s absurd comments to 60 Minutes last Sunday that inflation is now under control, albeit at more than 8%, the highest sustained level in more than 30 years.

After dismissing August’s monthly CPI reading as "up just an inch, hardly at all," he proceeded to gladly dig himself even deeper, proudly telling the interviewer Scott Pelley that “we're in a position where for the last several months, it [inflation] hasn't spiked, it's been basically even.”

In other words, inflation hasn’t risen to 9% or 10% year-on-year, so we’re in good shape.

This comes on top of other whoppers he and other members of his administration have said over the past several months, such as telling us that the recent student loan giveaway and an earlier deficit-raising budget measure were all already “paid for,” as if there was no cost involved.

Not to mention labeling his most recent budgetary measure the “Inflation Reduction Act.” Talk about Newspeak.

The point here is to demonstrate just how hard Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell‘s job is going to be to try to bring down inflation — yes, Mr. President, it’s really high and not getting lower — without any help from the fiscal authorities led by the White House. So brace yourselves for more interest rate increases. Continue reading "The Fed Kicks It Up a Notch" →

Apple Just Entered the Space Race

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Over the past few years, many big technology companies have entered the space race, whether it was Amazon's (AMZN) Jeff Bezos with Blue Horizon, Tesla's (TSLA) Elon Musk with Space X, or Alphabet's (GOOG) satellite internet service, which will be competing with Space X Starlink internet service.

Now the newest technology company to enter space is Apple (AAPL), but in a slightly different way than the others.

On September 7th, Apple released its newest iPhone, the iPhone 14. One of the key features of this new device is the Emergency SOS via satellite feature. This feature allows iPhone 14 owners to contact emergency services via satellites in an emergency when the individual does not have traditional cellular telephone service.

This feature could be a game changer during natural disasters and cell towers are knocked out. Those in need of help will be able to contact first responders with their location, health status, and other pertinent information to help save lives.

Apple is subcontracting the satellite service with a company called Globalstar (GSAT) which already has a network of satellites in outer space for which Apple iPhone 14 and newer phones will be able to access.

The Emergency SOS satellite service will be free for the first two years of owning the iPhone 14; after that time, there will be a price associated with the service, but those details are unknown now.

With more and more of the major technology companies entering space in some form or fashion, it is not hard to see that aerospace technology and the companies currently operating in that industry will benefit from the shift.

That is why I believe you should consider investing a small portion of your portfolio in the aerospace industry. And one of the best ways to gain broad access to any sector is using exchange-traded funds. So, let us look at a few ETFs you can own today, which will give you access to the aerospace industry. Continue reading "Apple Just Entered the Space Race" →

WPM vs HL: Which Silver Stock is a Buy?

Posted on by Taylor Dart

It’s been a volatile year thus far for the Silver Miners Index (SIL), with the ETF starting the year out by outperforming the S&P-500 (SPY), up 9% as of April.

Unfortunately, this 1500 basis point outperformance has since reversed to a massive underperformance, with the SIL finding itself down 35% year-to-date. The sharp reversal can be attributed to the plunging silver price, combined with inflationary pressures, which have severely impacted margins for the group.

In fact, some of the worst producers, like Endeavour Silver (EXK), now operate at negative all-in-sustaining cost margins.

While Endeavour Silver is an obvious name to avoid from an investment standpoint, given that it’s producing at $21.00/oz and selling its ounces below $20.00/oz, a few names have been dragged down unjustifiably by the terrible sentiment sector-wide.

Two of these names are Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) and Hecla Mining (HL), and they’re sitting at 45% off sales despite being much lower risk than their peers.

In this update, we’ll look at which is best suited for one’s portfolio:

Business Model

Hecla Mining and Wheaton Precious Metals (“Wheaton”) have two very different business models. While they both sell a significant amount of silver, Wheaton is a streaming company, while Hecla is a producer.

This means that Hecla actually operates its four mines in Canada and the United States, a business model that carries higher risk and makes Hecla more sensitive to inflationary pressures.

In Wheaton’s case, the company receives deliveries from several operating partners and is immune from inflationary pressures.

The reason is that Wheaton provides an upfront payment and, in exchange, gets a portion of metal produced over the mine’s life without worrying about rising labor/fuel costs or growth/sustaining capital. The result is that WPM has a much higher margin business, enjoying 76% gross margins and 63% operating margins on a trailing twelve-month basis. Continue reading "WPM vs HL: Which Silver Stock is a Buy?" →

September FOMC Meeting - How Might Gold Respond

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The Federal Reserve will conclude its September FOMC meeting and release a written statement at 2 PM EDT today. This will be followed by Chairman Powell’s press conference a half-hour later.

It is widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve will raise the “Fed funds rate” by 75 basis points. The CME’s FedWatch tool is forecasting that there is an 84% probability of a 75-basis point hike, and a 16% probability that the Fed will raise rates by a full percentage point.

In the unlikely event that the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate by 1%, it would most certainly pressure gold to lower pricing.

According to MarketWatch, “economists at the brokerage Nomura Securities … became the first on Wall Street to predict a full-percentage-point increase in the Fed’s benchmark short-term rate.”

Weekly Gold Futures Chart

However, if the Fed raises rates by 75 basis points as expected market participants could see some short-covering activity amid a relief rally. As of 5:05 PM EDT yesterday gold futures basis, the most active December contract is trading five dollars lower and is fixed at $1673.20.

The hard truth is that after four consecutive rate hikes beginning in March inflation remains extremely elevated and persistent. The latest data revealed that the CPI index had a slight decline from July’s 8.5% to 8.3% in August. While the headline CPI had a fractional decline the core CPI which strips out food and energy costs increased 0.6% more than double the prior month’s increase. This means that the core inflation rate climbed to 6.3% from 5.9% in August.

Because the August core inflation rate is three times the 2% target the Federal Reserve wants to achieve members of the Federal Reserve will continue the exceedingly hawkish tone expressed at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. Continue reading "September FOMC Meeting - How Might Gold Respond" →