Big Banks - Rising Rates And Earnings Synergy

Stellar Earnings

The big bank cohort reported stellar earnings across the board and set the stage for earnings season while sparking a broad rally across the indices. The big banks have benefited from a confluence of impending rising rates, post-pandemic economic rebound, financially strong balance sheets, a robust housing market, and the easy passage of annual stress tests. The most recent earnings reports confirm this secular thesis as Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Goldman Sachs (GS) all reported very strong quarters, with stock prices nearing all-time highs. The big bank cohort is in a sweet spot of a post-pandemic consumer, rising rates and balance sheets to support expanded share buybacks and dividend increases. These stocks are inexpensive and stand to capitalize on all these tailwinds over the long term.

A Healthy Consumer

The big banks are already transitioning beyond the pandemic based on the results and commentary from the collective companies’ top executives during their respective Q3 earnings. The six biggest banks by assets posted profit and revenue that beat expectations. These results came on the heels of booming Wall Street deals and the release of funds previously earmarked for pandemic-related defaults.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan stated that whether it was a return to loan growth, credit-card signups, or economic indicators like unemployment levels, the company was back in expansion mode. “The pre-pandemic, organic growth machine has kicked back in,” “You see that this quarter, and it’s evident across all our lines of business.” The company said that loan balances at BAC increased 9% on an annualized basis from the second quarter, driven by strength in commercial loans. Continue reading "Big Banks - Rising Rates And Earnings Synergy"

Prepare For A Post-Powell Fed

If financial market participants were voting, Jerome Powell would likely win a resounding second term as Federal Reserve chair. He would also probably be approved by the Senate, but that would assume President Biden nominated him. Unfortunately, that's become less likely to happen.

The latest straw against him was the trading scandal that led to the resignation of two of the Fed's 12 regional bank presidents. While the Fed last week announced new restrictions on trading to prevent this from happening again, it also brings the scandal back into the public eye at the worst possible time for Powell, whose terms end in February. While he certainly can't be blamed for the deeds of others—especially when they happened at the Fed's regional banks, not the Fed itself—and he deserves credit for acting swiftly and decisively in their wake, the fact is that they occurred on his watch. As a result, he won't be able to deflect all of the blame.

More to the point, it exposes how cozy the Fed is to the financial markets when its officials are supposed to be purer than Caesar's wife. While Powell probably didn't know about those two Fed presidents' trades beforehand, the episode makes it look like the Fed chair isn't in charge of his own house. Continue reading "Prepare For A Post-Powell Fed"

Bank of America's Bombshell Crypto Report!

When I told you about the jaw-dropping news that came out of Deloitte's 2021 Global Blockchain Survey, I didn't think another report from a financial powerhouse would be so earth-shattering.

I was wrong.

In Bank of America's Digital Assets Primer: Only the first inning, there were so many cryptocurrency and blockchain bombshells that they made my head swim.

So today, I'm going to break down four of the most important of them. And I'll tell you why each one is potentially game-changing for each and every one of us.

Bombshell #1: Crypto is “Too Large to Ignore”

The report doesn't pull any punches and opens with this salvo: Continue reading "Bank of America's Bombshell Crypto Report!"

Bitcoin Hits The Target, What's Next?

Last Wednesday, Bitcoin rallied to its highest price ever, reaching just over $67k. The minimum bullish target at the previous all-time high that was preset at the start of the month has been hit. The majority of readers guessed it right.

Did you book the profit?

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What's next? I see at least two opposite perspectives. Let us see them one by one.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

The chart above is based on the assumption that the next significant move is kicking off now after a considerable retracement from April to June this year. Continue reading "Bitcoin Hits The Target, What's Next?"

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 10/24/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart - Stock Market Forecast

The time is finally here...

SPY has to choose what to do next. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"