Tag: Aibek Burabeyev

Gold Ratios: One Is Free, The Other Is Next!

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Gold/WTI Ratio: Free To Fly!

Gold/WTI
Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

Today for the first time I will analyze this crazy ratio. Just look at the monthly chart above, compared to the dead market in the direct Gold/US dollar cross it is so wildly volatile. It jumps to either side easily like a bullet ricocheting.

This ratio is contained within a very wide range between 6 and 29 WTI barrels per troy ounce of Gold, highlighted in two blue parallel lines. For 12 years, Gold had been weakening compared to WTI Oil (highlighted by falling orange trendline). In between, only once in 1998, we can see a false break up of the downtrend which quickly lost its momentum and the ratio fell back below the line. Gold was falling despite the growing Gold/USD price. The metal almost doubled its price, but at the same time it appeared at the bottom of the ratio and what is more surprising is that when Gold tripled its USD price, it again touched the bottom at 6 barrels per troy ounce. Indeed, it was an Oil boom, not a Gold boom. Continue reading "Gold Ratios: One Is Free, The Other Is Next!" →

Gold And Silver Monthly: Monumental

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Comparison of Dollar Counterparts

4H Dollar Chart
Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

In the above monthly comparison chart, I put in all of the main Dollar rivals and the Dollar index itself, which is shown inverse (100 was divided into DXY). As we can clearly see, all instruments fell dramatically last summer and didn't stop in the autumn of 2014. The black rectangle shows the area where Gold started decoupling with the rest of the Dollar counterparts. It was last September when Gold stopped falling. EURUSD is the most precise copy of the Dollar Index. Crude oil had slightly different behavior last month with less downside momentum. Therefore, all trade setups for more than half a year couldn't be accurate if they were based on pure Dollar dynamics. Gold stalled in the past waiting for a clear and powerful signal to break out of current the sideways action. The main question is, Continue reading "Gold And Silver Monthly: Monumental" →

Gold And Silver: Just K.I.S.S!

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Old friends and new guests, thank you very much for the comments and discussions regarding my post last week. One thing was clear… you prefer classic trend line charts! I will try to keep it short and simple from now and on. I will keep Elliott Wave for more liquid and crowd trending markets, like stocks and indices, where they work better.

Gold


Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

Last week Gold was very tricky compared to the other Dollar rivals. For example, the Euro and Crude oil are creeping up, while Gold did the opposite and squeezed out buyers. Yesterday, sellers couldn't escape either and got stopped out.

The price touched the downside for the second time and Gold shaped the Descending Triangle pattern which is highlighted in red. A breakout happened today above $1200. It means that we will watch the continuation of an uptrend (highlighted in blue). The target is calculated as a sum of the breakout and the height of the Triangle, which is located at $1246 area. Continue reading "Gold And Silver: Just K.I.S.S!" →

Gold and Silver: Catch The Wave Up

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Gold

4H Gold Chart
Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

Last week, the Gold short trade was stopped above $1200. Price immediately broke back above the head and shoulders neckline beyond $1200 and that was it. Stops are a good risk management instrument, they should be set at once and should be tight to protect your capital.

Today I prepared for you a totally new idea with a fresh look. I combined a classic trend model with the Elliott Wave technique and it is shown according to the long-term model posted at the start of this month.

Gold charted a good upside impulse wave 1 (of A) from the March low at $1142 up to the intermediate high at $1224. Then a correction wave 2 emerged and price retraced down to the 50% Fibonacci area at $1184. Usually, the 2nd wave corrects down to 61.8%-99% of the 1st wave, but this time we have had only half of it which means that the market accumulated enough bullish momentum to continue higher. Continue reading "Gold and Silver: Catch The Wave Up" →

Gold and Silver: Short "Short" Play

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Gold

4H Gold Chart
Chart courtesy of Tradingview.com

As seen in the above 4-hour chart, Gold has finished shaping a short term reversal pattern we've seen before, called a Head And Shoulders pattern. This pattern was confirmed on the RSI where the model is even more bearish as consequent lower highs were shaped.

The vertical neckline, highlighted in black, has been broken today below $1197 and this is a good sell signal. The target is the distance from the top of the head to the neckline, subtracted below the neckline. So the market aims for $1159 (highlighted in the red dashed horizontal line), which is $35 down from the current price at $1194. Continue reading "Gold and Silver: Short "Short" Play" →