ADL Predicts Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40

There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening. It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members. Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.

Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below). At that time, we warned that crude oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019. Ultimately, oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019. Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.

Oil

SOURCE: July 10, 2019: PREDICTIVE MODELING SUGGEST OIL HEADED MUCH LOWER

We believe the support level near $50.50 will act as a temporary support level over the next 3 to 10+ days before a moderate price breakdown below this level begins. Our expectations for November 2019 are that oil prices may fall to levels below $45 ppb on a deeper downward price move, yet will recover to levels near $47 near December 2019/January 2020. Continue reading "ADL Predicts Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40"

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, September 2019

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.805 billion barrels. It estimated stocks edged 1 million barrels higher in August to 2.895 billion, 43 million barrels higher than a year ago.

For the balance of 2019, OECD inventories are projected to rise, on balance. The third quarter seasonal stock draw was over in July. Third-quarter stocks are projected to rise by 2 million, instead of the seasonal draw. And stocks are projected to rise by 6 million in the fourth quarter, ending the year at 2.911 billion barrels, 50 million more than at the end of 2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build 67 million barrels to end the year at 2.978 billion.

Oil

The EIA has confirmed that OPEC production edged higher (23,000 b/d) in August v. July. It is also estimating that OPEC production will average about 29.6 million in 2020, and that figure is about 400,000 b/d higher than OPEC’s August estimate of the call (demand) for OPEC oil in 2020. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, September 2019"

Iraq Only Pays Lip Service To OPEC Agreements

Iraq is OPEC’s second-largest producer, and its production in August was 4.88 million barrels per day, according to Platts, and 4.76 according to Reuters. Its production target is 4.512, and so it is producing around 220,000 b/d more than it had pledged.

OPEC
Source: Reuters

By contrast, Iran’s production has fallen by 1.6 million per day since the October 2016 base period, and Saudi Arabia cut its output by 920,000 b/d. Moreover, according to Majid Jafar, CEO of Crescent Petroleum, the largest private oil company in the region, it is “doubling down” on its investment in Iraq and intends to increase its production there. Continue reading "Iraq Only Pays Lip Service To OPEC Agreements"

U.S. Crude Production Growth Paused In 1H19

The Energy Information Administration reported that June crude oil production averaged 12.082 million barrels per day (mmbd), down 33,000 b/d from May. The drop resulted from a drop of 58,000 b/d in Oklahoma. Production gained the most in North Dakota (58,000) and Colorado (19,000) while production in Texas was only up 13,000 b/d.

Crude Production

A pause in the growth rate in Texas had been expected due to pipeline constraints, which are expected to be alleviated in the second half of 2019 and first half of 2020. Nevertheless, Texas production reached a new all-time high of 4.982 mmbd.

US Crude Production

The year-over-year gains have been especially impressive with the June figure being 1.410 mmbd. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply add to that. For June, that additional gain is about 540,000 b/d. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Growth Paused In 1H19"

US Oil Production Is 19+ Million Barrels A Day

The oil market is fixated on U.S. crude oil production. As shown in the EIA Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (see table below), domestic production averaged 12.107 million barrels per day in the year-to-date, up 14.6% v. the same period in 2018.

Crude Oil

However, included within petroleum liquids supply is “Other Supply.” That figure is 6.885 million barrels per day in the year-to-date, up 8.9%, year-over-year. Continue reading "US Oil Production Is 19+ Million Barrels A Day"