ADL Predicts Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40

There are times when our research team interprets our advanced predictive modeling systems so well that we call a move in the markets 3 to 10+ months in advance of the move actually happening. It has happened for our team of research so often lately that we are somewhat used to the accolades we receive from our followers and members. Our October 2018 Gold price predictions are still playing out accurately and continue to amaze people – even though we made these predictions over 12 months ago.

Today, we wanted to highlight our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling systems expectations for Crude Oil. The research post we made on July 10, 2019 (see below). At that time, we warned that crude oil was about to head much lower and that our ADL modeling system was suggesting that oil prices would rotate between $47 and $64 before breaking much lower in November 2019. Ultimately, oil prices will fall below $40 ppb following our timeline and could begin a broader downside move before the end of October 2019. Read our full prediction/research report from the link below.



We believe the support level near $50.50 will act as a temporary support level over the next 3 to 10+ days before a moderate price breakdown below this level begins. Our expectations for November 2019 are that oil prices may fall to levels below $45 ppb on a deeper downward price move, yet will recover to levels near $47 near December 2019/January 2020. Continue reading "ADL Predicts Oil Prices Will Fall Below $40"

Oil Price Spike Will Most Likely Be Averted

Uncertainties for the balance of 2018 imply that stocks could fall sharply or be adequate. As a result, prices may spike or drop into the $50s, depending on what unfolds.

President Trump has sway over Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers. He can also fine-tune the implementation of sanctions on Iran and waivers to them. I’m expecting he will do whatever he has to, to avert a price spike going into the November mid-term elections.

July Production Changes

OPEC estimated in its August Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that its crude production in July averaged 32.323 million barrels per day (mmbd). That was about 40,000 b/d higher than in June. The “compliance” level with the 2016 deal dropped to 97%, the first time less than 100% in nearly a year.

Saudi Arabia’s production was reduced by about 52,000 b/d, but that was more than offset by gains of 79,000 b/d in Kuwait and 69,000 b/d in the UAE.

Iran’s production fell by 56,000 b/d while Venezuela’s output dropped 48,000 b/d. Libya’s output also dropped by 57,000 b/d. Continue reading "Oil Price Spike Will Most Likely Be Averted"

What’s the Best ETF for Playing an Oil Price Rebound?

Adam Feik - Contributor - Energies

A lot of investors seem very interested in bottom-fishing in the oil and energy realm these days. Perhaps that fact by itself ought to give everyone a little pause. It certainly does me!

The attraction, of course, is that oil's big crash from its June 2014 peak has made for a lot of "lower prices." Obviously, we all like to "buy low," when possible. Plus, almost everyone agrees oil isn't going away anytime soon. I don't dispute any of that.

On the contrary, as I've cited before (see my January 22nd blog, for example), the oil industry must find a bunch of new oil each year – about 5% of its current productive reserves – just to keep up with demand. About 4% of the 5% increase is required merely to replace depletion. The other 1% is to meet demand growth. Another way of stating the same thing is that by 2020, the industry will need to find about 30 million bbl/day of new oil supplies (compared to today's production of about 93 million barrels per day).

Furthermore, to reiterate a few more key points from that Jan. 21st blog, emerging countries are poised to continue increasing their demand for oil and energy as they expand the world's "2nd great industrial revolution." This is not a small deal or a short-term flash in the pan, as emerging countries are home to about 6 billion of the world's 7 billion people. In addition, the world's population is set to increase by 2 billion by 2040, and much of the increase will occur in emerging countries. Continue reading "What’s the Best ETF for Playing an Oil Price Rebound?"