Tag: Crude Oil

The Bottom May Be Falling Out -- Here's What To Do

Posted on by admin

By: David Sterman of Street Authority

Just a few months ago, all was quiet on the investing front, as most market indices continually broke new all-time highs. But in early August, the quiet was broken by a sudden surge by the dollar against the euro, the yen, Australian dollar and other currencies. At the time, the rallying dollar was merely seen as the beneficiary of a relatively robust U.S. economic growth rate in 2015, at least compared to Europe and Japan.

In hindsight, the currency shifts now appear to be the result of something more concerning: European economic activity has slowed to a crawl, the Chinese government is leaning towards a policy of reform over stimulus -- compounded by brewing political troubles in Hong Kong -- and U.S. investors are finally waking up to the reality that global economic growth will likely be subpar in 2015.

That dim view may also explain why West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil has now slipped below $90 a barrel for the first time in 17 months. Then again, oil prices may be slumping because the dollar is rallying, which always hurts the price of commodities such as oil. Or perhaps it's the fact that too much oil is being produced at a time when global demand is slackening.

In other words, there are now a number of moving parts in play, and the factors behind these recent shifts are likely to persist. How you position your portfolio for the changing market can spell the difference between capital preservation and capital erosion. Continue reading "The Bottom May Be Falling Out -- Here's What To Do" →

What Is The Greatest Market Indicator In The World?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Now some would argue that fundamentals are the most important element in trading, others might argue that technicals are the most important. It might also be argued that perception is the key to trading.

I would have to say there's a certain element of truth in the fundamentals, the technicals, and perception. But to me, the greatest market indicator in the world is the market itself. You can't argue with the market and win.

In today's example, I'm going to look at crude oil futures (NYMEX:CL.V14.E). I think this is an excellent example of how potential fundamental elements did not play out. When crude oil was trading over $100 a barrel, many were calling for it to go significantly higher based on the turmoil in the Middle East and also what was happening in the Ukraine.

Well, the exact opposite occurred as oil tumbled lower month after month. Now you could stick to your guns and say to yourself that fundamentally I think crude oil is going higher. If you had adopted that strategy no matter how logical it may seem to you at the time, you'd be sitting on a tremendous loss at this present time.

Holding onto losses is not the way to trade in any market, whether it's stocks, futures, foreign exchange, ETFs or precious metals. The name of the game is making money - less we all forget.

The market may fool you every once in a while, but what program or approach doesn't do that? But overall, the market gets it right every time as it is a total of everyone's knowledge. When you have so many brains working for you around the world, how could you not pay attention to what the market is actually doing?

So let's take a look at the October crude oil contract (NYMEX:CL.V14.E) to see how MarketClub's Trade Triangle technology handled the 10% drop over the last few months.

CHART LEGEND
1. All Trade Triangles are red and negative and show a -100 Score.
2. On 7/7/14 the Weekly Trade Triangle indicates a short position at $102.40.
3. RSI moves below the 50 line.
4. RSI now acts as resistance at the 50 line.
5. RSI now acts as resistance at the 50 line.

Every success with MarketClub,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator, MarketClub

High Oil Prices Are Here To Stay -- Here's How To Profit

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American oil production is surging. Yet oil prices remain near $100 a barrel.

You may be wondering: When will all of this additional production finally overtake demand and push the price of oil down?

You can find one answer in the price of oil futures -- which say we can expect oil to fall to closer to $80 in the coming few years and stay there.

 

Is the market correct? Are oil prices heading south?

I think that the answer is no, for several reasons -- especially after I listened to a recent presentation by Bill Thomas, the CEO and chairman of EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG).

EOG is, by a considerable margin, the largest horizontal oil producer in the world. That means the company has access to the best data available on horizontal oil production and resources.

Put simply, EOG and Thomas believe that the futures market is all wrong about oil prices. The company is bullish on oil and focused on producing more of it.

What EOG sees -- and the market doesn't seem to grasp -- is that for all intents and purposes, the horizontal oil boom is coming from only two plays: the Bakken Formation in the upper Midwest and the Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. A slide from EOG's most recent investor presentation illustrates this clearly: Continue reading "High Oil Prices Are Here To Stay -- Here's How To Profit" →

Why Major Trends Are Important

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and co-creator of MarketClub, with your video update for Thursday, the 3rd of April.

Indices

Major Trend : BULLISH
Intermediate Trend : BULLISH

One lesson I learned a long time ago in my trading career was to never fight the trend. Trends tend to persist longer and go further than most expect. Yesterday, the Dow 30 gave a signal that it was once again resuming its upward trend, joining the S&P 500 in a positive trend. The NASDAQ is in a neutral and sideways mode. Watch today’s video to see my upside target levels.

Continue reading "Why Major Trends Are Important" →

Are The Markets Just Teasing Us?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and co-creator of MarketClub, with your video update for Wednesday, the 26th of March.

It would appear as though most of the major indices have just been spinning their wheels and going nowhere fast in the past 4 to 5 weeks as they have all been in a broad trading range. This type of market action can lull investors to complacency, but for me it has always been a wake-up call to pay close attention to the market as something big is going to happen.

As I see it, the market is doing one of two things, it's either building a base to move higher or it's a distribution top – only time will tell which is the correct answer.

One of our members suggested that the Dow 30 could be making an inverse head and shoulders formation. Certainly this is possible, but I need to see a clear breakout to the upside to confirm this formation.

The other concern I have is the damage done to the NASDAQ earlier this week as it fell to a 6-week low. How this particular index closes on Friday is going to be very important in my mind. Again, I will be watching this market very closely for signs of either a continuation of the bullish trend or a top. Continue reading "Are The Markets Just Teasing Us?" →