Tag: Futures Trading

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 68.58 a barrel while currently trading at 74.11 up about $5.50 for the trading week up for the 4th consecutive session hitting a 4-year high as this is the only commodity that is experiencing a bullish trend. The next significant level of resistance is around the $80 area as I think there could be a price squeeze in the front month due to the fact that the Trump administration has stated that they will put strict tariffs on any country that buys Iranian oil coupled with the fact that OPEC only increased production by 600,000 barrels as the fundamental picture for this commodity remains very strong in my opinion. Traders reacted very positively off of the API report which was released Wednesday as we had a drawdown of about 9 million barrels as there is robust demand for oil and gasoline as we are consuming record amounts as we head into 4th of July holiday weekend with a record amount people on the roads. Oil prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher and if you're extended a futures contract continue to stay long and if you are not participating wait for some price, therefore, lowering the monetary risk to enter into a bullish position. The chart structure is terrible at the current time due to the fact of the exponential run-up in prices that we have experienced over the last several days.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract continued its bearish trend trading lower for the 4th consecutive session hitting a fresh 7-month low trading at 1,270 an ounce. I still see no reason to own this commodity as the NASDAQ 100 hit another all-time high this week and all of the interest lies in the equity market, not gold. In my opinion, if you are short a futures contract stay short as the next level of support is around 1,260 which could be tested in tomorrows trade. I still think we could retest the December 12th low of 1,251 & if that occurs prices could head down to the 1,200 level as a strong U.S dollar continues to impact gold prices as that market is also hovering right near an 11 month high & looks to even move higher in my opinion. Gold futures are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower and if you're short a futures contract continue to place the proper stop above the 2-week high standing at 1,313 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. I am certainly not recommending any bullish position as that would be counter-trend trading as this market is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: INCREASING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract are ending the week on a sour note down $26 an ounce currently trading at 1,284 filling the gap that I've talked about in previous blogs that occurred on December 21st at 1,284 as this market has now hit a 6-month low. The U.S. dollar continues to hover around its contract high as that's the main culprit for depressed prices as gold continues its bearish momentum in 2018 also pushing silver prices down $0.60 this afternoon as that is my only precious metal recommendation at the current time. Gold futures are trading under 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside breaking out of a 4-week consolidation as the volatility certainly has expanded as the entire commodity markets across the board today are lower as the Trump tariffs talks are throwing a wrench into the closet and who knows how this situation is going to end up. The next major level of support stands at 1,260 as there is still room to run to the downside in my opinion as all of the interest still remains in the U.S. equity market which is also lower today, however the NASDAQ 100 did hit all-time highs once again this week as money flows continue to come out of gold and into stocks as I don't see that situation changing as I still believe the stock market will remain strong for the rest of this year.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →

Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Sell In May And Go Away


Last August I posted a chart analysis of one particular commodity market index as I spotted an interesting pattern. As time goes by, we can see how my outlook emerged and after almost a year the market reached another crucial milestone or better yet a decision point.

This index is called The Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB). It is the gauge of the commodities market, which is comprised of 19 commodities: Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, Unleaded Gas, and Wheat.

So, if you watch commodities market, then the two charts below could be of strong interest to you.

Chart 1. Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Monthly: Failed At Resistance

Sell In May And Go Away
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Above is an update of the earlier chart. The risk/reward that time ($182) favored a long position as the upside target at the major top ($474) promised to cover risk extensively amid oversold market conditions. Continue reading "Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?" →

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Posted on by The INO.com Team

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold future prices in the August contract is currently trading at 1,303 an ounce still stuck in a 3-week tight consolidation pattern. I am not involved in this market, but I do have a bullish bias toward silver and the copper market which is higher once again today. Volatility in gold is extremely low as we are right near major support on the daily chart. However, one thing that does concern me is that there is a price gap around 1,280 which was hit in late December 2017. I don't like gaps as they are generally filled so be patient and let's see if that situation occurs. Gold prices are still trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the short-term trend is to the downside. The U.S. dollar is still hovering right near a 5-month high and has been the main culprit for depressed gold prices as all of the interest remains in the U.S. equity market which is right near another all-time high today as money flows continue to go into that sector and out of gold. The highly anticipated summit between North Korea and the United States is next week and tensions have eased as there is a possibility that North Korea could end their nuclear program. If that is the case, you would probably have to think that gold prices would head lower in the short term, however, avoid this commodity and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: LOW
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery" →