Big Pictures: Stocks, Gold and the Miners

Ukraine war hype, China demand drop, GOFO mysteries… these are the short term noise inputs on the gold sector.

US Treasury bond yield spreads, gold vs. commodities (i.e. the 'real' price of gold), gold vs. the stock market… these are some of the fundamental considerations that actually matter and they have taken a hit since January.

It is easy to say 'I am bullish in the big picture' (measured in years) but it is not so easy to actively manage in the smaller pictures (measured in days, weeks and months) with all of the above noise inputs and more bombarding the poor individual player.

We use shorter term charts to manage the shorter time frames.  Daily charts have most recently indicated a bearish set up as bear flags formed across the precious metals complex (with the exception of silver, which never got going to begin with) last week.  Weekly charts continue to indicate that an extended and oh so grinding bottom may be forming, but that includes the potential for ups and downs, also known as volatility. Continue reading "Big Pictures: Stocks, Gold and the Miners"

Chart of The Week - Gold

Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.

After a week where we saw a correction in stock index futures, we will be looking at June Gold Futures (NYMEX:GC.M14.E) to receive a possible flight-to-safety bid. The focus remains on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where the prospect for violence is extremely high. This shifts the gold market’s focus from physical commodity fundamentals to safe haven issues. Further Russia-Ukraine tensions or continued pressure on stock index futures can provide an influx of buyers in the gold market.

On the technical side, gold has shown a lot of strength after rebounding from its April 1, 2014 low of 1278.3. Last Friday’s session was relatively quiet, consolidating and trading within the previous day’s range between 1324 and 1310.8. For this reason, along with multiple fundamental catalysts, I would be a buyer in June Gold futures and look for it to reach $1350.00 in the near future. Continue reading "Chart of The Week - Gold"

Tech Stocks Put The Market Under Pressure

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and co-creator of MarketClub, with your video update for Monday, the 7th of April.

Last week we saw the tech stocks shave 4% off the value of the NASDAQ index in just 3 days and we are seeing further follow-through selling today. Technically the markets have been in strong bull trends for the last 5 years. Historically, very few bull markets have exceeded that length of time. This bull market may or may not be the exception.

There have been several Internet stocks that I have been talking about on this blog, mainly Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) which I have been bearish on, Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), Yelp (NYSE:YELP), and a host of others and they are all in bearish patterns. Continue reading "Tech Stocks Put The Market Under Pressure"

The Odds Are In Your Favor To Trade Gold This Quarter

Using MarketClub's weekly and daily Trade Triangles, I have found that over the last 6 1/2 years, the second quarter of the year has shown the most consistent profits in gold. These past results showed a quarterly gain on average of $7,104.83 on one futures contract.

Gold (FOREX:XAUUSDO) enjoyed a nice move up earlier in the year, reaching a high of $1393.35 and has pulled back to an important Fibonacci support area. I want to watch this market very carefully and wait for the weekly Trade Triangle to turn green to get bullish on gold. That's not to say I am not longer-term bullish, it only means that my timing will kick in when the weekly Trade Triangle turns into a green Trade Triangle.

Besides the Fibonacci support area, the RSI indicator is also at a very low level, similar to that of December 2013. Continue reading "The Odds Are In Your Favor To Trade Gold This Quarter"

Why Major Trends Are Important

Hello traders everywhere! Adam Hewison here, President of INO.com and co-creator of MarketClub, with your video update for Thursday, the 3rd of April.

Indices

Major Trend : BULLISH
Intermediate Trend : BULLISH

One lesson I learned a long time ago in my trading career was to never fight the trend. Trends tend to persist longer and go further than most expect. Yesterday, the Dow 30 gave a signal that it was once again resuming its upward trend, joining the S&P 500 in a positive trend. The NASDAQ is in a neutral and sideways mode. Watch today’s video to see my upside target levels.

Continue reading "Why Major Trends Are Important"