Tag: lior alkalay

Hedge Your Dollars With Pounds?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


Which currency is set to outperform? Is it the US Dollar or the Pound Sterling? Consider if you will that, despite some notable headwinds, the Fed is moving closer to a rate hike. For many, that suggests the Dollar as the best bet for the next 12 months. Especially with unemployment at 5.3% and core CPI now rebounding to 1.8% Year on Year. Yet some US data releases are still only "mildly" positive; for example gains in wages, slowed from 2.3% to just 2%.

On the other side of the Atlantic the Bank of England has signaled that it's warming up towards a rate hike, too. Yet, unlike in the US, gains in wages have been rising by 3.2% Year on Year. Moreover, GDP has been growing at a pace of 0.4% (QoQ) in Q1, far better than the negative figure posted by the US. So is the Sterling looking better than the Dollar? Not exactly. Then is the Dollar looking better than Sterling? The answer is, once again, not exactly. But here's the thing. Continue reading "Hedge Your Dollars With Pounds?" →

China's Real Problem: The Yuan

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


In the past few weeks, and especially this last one, equity investors watched in horror as China's stock market began to disintegrate. More than $3 trillion in value disappeared in what seems like the blink of an eye. Over the same period, the FX market has been preoccupied with the unfolding events in Greece. Many investors believe that, while Greece is very relevant to the FX market, China's problem pertain only to a bubbly stock market. If that's what you believe, too, you thought wrong! China's stock crash is a mere side effect of the country's real problem – the Chinese Yuan.

China's Ambition for the Yuan

The Yuan has always been a critical tool for Chinese policy makers. During the 1990s, China essentially sacrificed the Yuan in favor of growth as it aspired to become the world's factory. That thanks in large part was to a cheap labor force. Cheap labor is essentially only possible with an undervalued currency. The Chinese government succeeded in its endeavor. China rose to prominence, moving swiftly from a somewhat marginal economy to the world's second largest economy. There is no other way to describe it except as a phenomenal economic achievement and one skilfully executed.

China Annual GDP Growth

Now, Chinese leaders have reached their next resolution and are set to take the first step. Once again, the government’s resolve relates to the Yuan. In order to avert a Japanese style of rise and decline, China's government wants to do things differently. The government recognizes that it must turn the Yuan into a reserve currency, one that matches the dollar. This will allow China to turn into a more sustainable credit-driven economic model, à la the United States. Continue reading "China's Real Problem: The Yuan" →

Grexit: Hope For The Worst?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


Are we experiencing the beginning of the end for the euro? For roughly three years, it seems as though politicians have been kicking the can down the road, putting off the apocalypse right at the last minute. And investors in the currency have had their patience stretched to the limit, vacillating between no hope and naivety that the Greek problem had gone away.

After Greece came Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland, but while the rest have been able to curb the risk and get a grip on things, the Greek problem has kept coming back. Now it seems that we've reached the end, the moment of truth, what investors have been dreading for the last three years – that Greece will eventually default and leave the Eurozone, and that it will spell the end of the euro. But now that the end has come, it seems as though investors have not only learned to live with the idea of a Grexit but to actually want it. The saying goes that you have to hope for the best and prepare for the worst, and more and more voices are indicating that some institutional investors are now hoping for the worst, for Greece to leave the euro. But why? Continue reading "Grexit: Hope For The Worst?" →

Yen Spike: An Opportunity in the Making?

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The BOJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, never disappoints when it comes to producing a juicy headline for the newswires. Last time, if you will recall, it was the surprise addition of new stimulus. This time around, in his speech to the Shūgiin, Japan's House of Representatives last week, Governor Kuroda exclaimed that "the Yen is fairly valued." He then continued to outline how the merits of monetary policy have limits.

And what was investors take on Kuroda's message? Clearly fearful. That was evident by the avalanche of investors who failed to consider the underlying message and quickly switched to crowded Yen buying. The USD/JPY move was brutal, with the pair taking a nose dive of 300 pips. Of course, soon after, analysts and experts provided their own take. Opinions ran from "The remarkable rise of the USD/JPY has finally come to an abrupt end" to "the BOJ will not add more stimulus." In fact, big bets on more and more stimulus are now well off the table. But, before you decide to follow the crowd, take a moment to stop, ponder and try to see this for what it very well may be. Simply put, perhaps the spike in the Yen's value is actually an opportunity to sell it high.

Kuroda Vs Bernanke

Markets are looking at Kuroda's speech as the BOJ saying, essentially, that shorting the Yen from here on out might not be such a good idea. It might also suggest that if the BOJ is pleased with the current value of the Yen, that they might then be less accommodative. Of course, no one knows what exactly goes through the governor's head except Kuroda himself, yet we can speculate. Before I do that, let me first draw a comparison to another central banker, Ben Bernanke, the now retired chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. Continue reading "Yen Spike: An Opportunity in the Making?" →

Dollar Correction Not Over

Posted on by Lior Alkalay

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


It was back on 13 April that I highlighted the breaking point for the dollar, which could lead to a dollar correction after a prolonged rally. What was that breaking point? If inflation gauges showed that the strong dollar weighed on the inflation outlook, then the dollar would begin its correction. And so indeed, shortly after, the dollar began to plunge against its European peer, the euro, as investors switched into euro longs and dollar shorts. The reason? Data suggested that the US economy wasn't growing as quickly as expected, and most inflation gauges suggested that inflation still wasn't returning.

And then, two weeks ago, the tide turned once again and investors began dollar buying once more as core inflation nudged up and the Eurozone, with the looming Greek crisis, seemed weak again. But is the dollar correction really over? Don't count on it… Continue reading "Dollar Correction Not Over" →