Palladium Pushed Platinum To Record Low

A year ago I wrote about the platinum/palladium ratio as it was on the edge, and there were two possible options, to restore the historically normal supremacy of platinum (target 1.93 oz) or to prolong the triumph of palladium (target 0.56 oz.).

This month the Platinum/Palladium ratio hit a new record low of 0.55 oz. amid the rocket move to the upside in the palladium market; the latter became the most precious metal beating gold. Let’s take a look at the big picture below.

Chart 1. Platinum/Palladium Ratio Monthly: New Record Low

platinum/palladium ratio
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The chart above starts with a robust growth to the upside from 3 to 5 oz. and this move had set the “normal” range for the fluctuations of the ratio within the next two decades. It was interrupted only once in 1997 when the ratio fell out of the range and quickly dropped to establish a previous record low of 0.56 oz. in 2001 amid rumors that Russia would ban palladium export. It was a textbook example of a “sell rumors - buy facts” market behavior, the ratio was down on rumors and then when the reality didn’t confirm it the ratio quickly returned to the normal range making a beautiful V-shape pattern. Then the ratio had spent another decade in that range. Continue reading "Palladium Pushed Platinum To Record Low"

Platinum Could Restore Its Supremacy Soon

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Platinum


Last October I focused on the rare case when the price of palladium, for the first time in many years, could surpass the usually dominant platinum price. Both, common sense and chart analysis of the palladium price suggested that the triumph of this metal could be temporary. In the charts below, we can see if this conclusion turned out to be right.

Chart 1. Platinum/Palladium Ratio Monthly: Half-Half

Platinum
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

This time I would like to start with the chart of the relative strength of the two metals which is clearly traceable through the platinum/palladium ratio. This ratio is falling sharply from the 2009 high at the 6.09 oz showing the dramatic weakness of platinum compared to palladium. In the chart above, I only show you the period when the drop started to decelerate, and the trend turned flat. Continue reading "Platinum Could Restore Its Supremacy Soon"

Palladium Finally Beats Platinum

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Chart 1. Platinum Vs. Palladium: Crossed Swords

Platinum Vs. Palladium
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Sixteen years ago was the last time that platinum was cheaper than palladium in 2001 (black vertical line). By then palladium had spent a year in the dominant position over platinum, and at that time the price of both metals had been fluctuating around $600 level. Since then platinum has returned to its usual upper position to palladium, and the gap was growing exponentially in favor of platinum until it reached the peak with the $1600 of supremacy in 2008. After that, the gap began to narrow and last month it entirely evaporated as a global shift in the automotive industry showed a growing demand for gasoline and hybrid cars (palladium related) amid slowing demand for diesel cars (platinum related).

The Volkswagen emissions scandal started on the 18th of September 2015 (orange vertical line), when the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a notice of violation. I dedicated a post in 2015 to that significant event. The price of both metals continued higher right after that news as the reaction time to such a report always has a gap in such a giant industry. Continue reading "Palladium Finally Beats Platinum"

Is Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE:SWC) A Smart Takeover?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Back in September, I wrote that the Stillwater Mining’s stock price was under pressure amid a weakening Platinum. The metal’s price action signaled that another drop below $1000 was in the cards. Indeed the metal price has lost “one digit” sinking to a low of $890 last month from the $1030 level when I wrote the post.

Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE:SWC) followed the metal’s drop and fell from $12.43 to $11.19 last October, but then it started to rocket higher and hit the 2-year maximum at the $17.50 level last December despite the new low in the platinum price. The clear answer to this contradiction in the metal and stock price behavior came on the 9th of December, 2016. That day, “The Last Mohican” of pure American platinum-group metals (PGM) producers announced that it would be acquired by a South African company for $2.2 billion in a deal that requires U.S. government approval. The purchase price was set at $18 per share and this explains the robust growth of the stock price on the market. Continue reading "Is Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE:SWC) A Smart Takeover?"

Precious Metals In 2016: The Dark Horse Won The Prize

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


This interesting year is coming to an end and in this post I would like to offer you a summary of precious metals’ dynamics in 2016.

Chart 1. Metals in 2016: Boom And Bust

Precious Metals 2016
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

This year metal trading was quite exciting. The chart shows that we have gone through a full Boom and Bust cycle and the top of the cycle amazingly coincides with the middle of a year, when metals showed a maximum gain (except Palladium) within the 25-50% range. Ideal distribution within a single year! Continue reading "Precious Metals In 2016: The Dark Horse Won The Prize"