Tag: Robert Boslego

World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, September 2018

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in July at 2.804 billion barrels. It shows inventories rising in the third quarter, contrary to the usual seasonal trend. However, it forecasts that stocks will drop in December to 2.798 billion after the Iranian sanctions are expected to go into effect.

Throughout 2019, OECD inventories are generally expected to rise, ending the year with 72 million barrels more than at the end of 2017. The anticipated drop in Iranian production, due to the U.S. sanctions, is forecast to be offset by increases from other producers, such as the U.S., Canada and the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE.

World Oil Supply

Saudi Arabia has recently stated that it can produce at least 12 million barrels per day. If it does increase output to that level, this would be a major “surprise” to world markets since its production has never exceeded 11 million. Continue reading "World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, September 2018" →

U.S. Crude Production Growth Rebounds In June

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that June crude oil production averaged 10.674 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 231,000 b/d from May. The surge was partly on the back of a rebound of 154,000 b/d in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) which had fallen due to unplanned maintenance. In addition, there was a surge of 165,000 b/d in Texas and a loss of 45,000 b/d in Alaska due to normal summer maintenance.

U.S. Crude Production Growth Rebounds

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 223,000 b/d lower than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 10.897 mmbd.

U.S. Crude Production Growth Rebounds

EIA has since kept weekly production estimates essentially flat, as it apparently waits for the monthly survey numbers to catch-up. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Growth Rebounds In June" →

Permian Takeaway Capacity: From Constrained To Over-Supply by 2020

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Oil-directed drilling rigs in the Permian Basin continue to rise and are at 485 for the week ending August 24th. This figure is 29 percent higher than a year ago.

Permian

The growth of crude production in the Permian Basin has been very impressive over the past year. Estimated output in September 2018 is expected to be 3.421 million barrels per day (mmbd), an increase of 850,000 b/d, or 33 percent, year-over-year. Continue reading "Permian Takeaway Capacity: From Constrained To Over-Supply by 2020" →

Oil Price Spike Will Most Likely Be Averted

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Uncertainties for the balance of 2018 imply that stocks could fall sharply or be adequate. As a result, prices may spike or drop into the $50s, depending on what unfolds.

President Trump has sway over Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf producers. He can also fine-tune the implementation of sanctions on Iran and waivers to them. I’m expecting he will do whatever he has to, to avert a price spike going into the November mid-term elections.

July Production Changes

OPEC estimated in its August Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that its crude production in July averaged 32.323 million barrels per day (mmbd). That was about 40,000 b/d higher than in June. The “compliance” level with the 2016 deal dropped to 97%, the first time less than 100% in nearly a year.

Saudi Arabia’s production was reduced by about 52,000 b/d, but that was more than offset by gains of 79,000 b/d in Kuwait and 69,000 b/d in the UAE.

Iran’s production fell by 56,000 b/d while Venezuela’s output dropped 48,000 b/d. Libya’s output also dropped by 57,000 b/d. Continue reading "Oil Price Spike Will Most Likely Be Averted" →

U.S. Crude Oil Production Slowed in May

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that May U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.442 million barrels per day (mmbd), off 30,000 b/d from April’s all-time record high of 10.472 mmbd.

However, May’s production was also lower than 10.461 mmbd posted for March. From December through March, production had spiked by 423,000 b/d.

Part of the explanation for the lack of continued growth is the unplanned maintenance in the Gulf of Mexico. Last month, GOM production dropped by 75,000 b/d. In April, it had declined by 99,000 b/d. In EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, May’s GOM production was forecast to increase by 200,000 b/d from April.

Otherwise, increases in North Dakota (25,000 b/d) and in Texas (20,000 b/d) were also relatively modest.

U.S. Crude Oil Production

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 304,000 b/d lower than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 10.706 mmbd. EIA’s most recent weekly estimate for the week ending July 27th was 11.0 mmbd. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Oil Production Slowed in May" →