A Path Toward Inflation

Yes, it’s another inflation post going up even as inflation expectations are in the dumper and casino patrons just cannot get enough of Treasury and Government bonds yielding 0%, near 0% and below 0%.

Feel free to tune out the lunatic inflation theories you’ve found at nftrh.com over the last few weeks.  But if by chance you do want to look, here’s a visual path we have taken to arrive at the barn door, behind which are all those inflated chickens, roosting and waiting.  All sorts of animals will get out of the barn if macro signals activate.

Gold led silver ever since the last inflationary blow off and blow out in early 2011.  The gold-silver ratio rose through global deflation, US Goldilocks, good times and bad.  There was no inflation problem, anywhere.  Then early this year silver jerked leadership away from gold and now for the second time the ratio of gold to silver has broken below the moving average that has defined its trend (it did so in 2012 as well).

gsr

Why is this significant?  Well, try on 2010 for size (see chart below).  I for one happily managed the gold-silver ratio up spike in 2008, buying gold miners as they crashed.  As gold (monetary, risk ‘off’) topped vs. silver (commodity/monetary, relatively risk ‘on’) we expanded the bullish view to commodities as well.  But then came the bottoming pattern that was not a bottoming pattern.  To this day I believe that the macro was preparing for a next leg up and some serious new destruction before Ben Bernanke, the “Hero”, sprung into action and ruined the beautiful Inverted H&S pattern that long-time NFTRH subscribers will remember me making a big deal about at the time. Continue reading "A Path Toward Inflation"

Gold & Silver: First Pullback

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Chart 1. Gold Daily: Second to Win but First to Hold

Gold: Daily Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The top metal has was just $4 from reaching the target of $1307 which was set in my March post. It had reached a high of $1303 on May 2nd before it started a one-month long correction anticipated in the same post. The depth of the correction is minimal at 38.2% and is well above the normal retracement area within the 50-78.6% range ($1176-$1101) highlighted in the March post. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: First Pullback"

Gold & Silver Daily: Ladies And Gentlemen, The Bull Flag!

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Today when I saw that precious metals started to rise after a correction I detected on the charts my favorite pattern called the Bull Flag. This pattern can change the targets depicted in my earlier gold and silver posts, better say enrich them.

Chart 1. Gold Daily: Beyond 1300!

Daily Gold Chart
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Gold is in the blue multi-month uptrend. The angle is not as sharp as it was at the start of the year, but it still can take gold to fresh highs. Continue reading "Gold & Silver Daily: Ladies And Gentlemen, The Bull Flag!"

All Hail the Mighty Silver Bugs...

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger examines silver's recent moves upward.

LL

In my business, there is a great deal of travel, be it to properties in the Peruvian Andes or the Canadian Yukon or to the investment conferences in New Orleans or San Francisco or London, so I get a full psychographic cross section of every type of investor imaginable. First of all, the audiences I have encountered at the "Sound Money" conferences in Nassau or Bermuda are usually quite conservative and usually well-dressed and well-groomed. When the topic is gold and it is a controversial speaker looking for "the end of Western civilization," the audiences tend to be a tad different with hair length and dress code noticeably more avant-garde.

However, when the topic is confined to silver, while the speakers tend to be "evangelical," the audiences appear to be (operative word being "appear") simply stark-raving madmen of the first order. They usually dress in military fatigues, the males are all in ponytails, the women weigh more than the men, and the T-shirts and baseball caps on both males and females carry logos from either the WWF or the Monster Truck conventions. However, they are usually quite erudite when discussing "survival techniques"; they are usually extremely well educated and they are all able to rhyme off the silver production numbers for the past 20 years BY COUNTRY; and most importantly, they carry high distain for anyone who fails to know these facts. Continue reading "All Hail the Mighty Silver Bugs..."

The Gold-to-Silver Ratio: A Truly Generational Opportunity

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger says that owning silver versus owning gold is a high-probability trade that could be the 2016 Trade of the Year.

Daily GDX Chart

This week's Gong Show in the global financial markets reminds me of the early 1980s before the advent of the Internet or online trading or blogs and especially before 30-something financial "advisors" were allowed to go on the national (and international) airwaves or Internet websites and babble on for what seem like days how "The Fed has our back!" as an excuse for buying stocks at 23 times forward earnings.

Back then, at 4:15 every Friday night, there would be a line-up of brokers and analysts (even the janitor) next to the old teletype machine (I am imagining more than a few raised eyebrows among the kids out there as they quickly Google search "teletype machine" on their Smartphones while sipping a $10 cup of fancy-ass coffee) in expectation of the all-important "Money Supply" numbers that everyone supposed was going to give them a hint as to when interest rates would start to decline from 16%-plus nosebleed levels of the early 1980s. Continue reading "The Gold-to-Silver Ratio: A Truly Generational Opportunity"