Tag: technical analysis

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 1/30/2022 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Weekly Chart - Stock Market Forecast

I'm putting my trading operations back together after a week plus away from my screens due to the good old-fashioned stomach flu that has marched its way through the family one by one, laying us out flat. This was a top 5 bug for sure; I haven't been that debilitated in many years. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast" →

A Macro View For Stocks, Commodities And Gold

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

Final rally for stocks, commodities to top, and a final down leg for gold?

This is one man asking one question among several I could be asking, given the volatility of macro indicators on a day-to-day, week-to-week basis. But as FOMC rides off into the sunset it is the scenario that I think is most probable, given the current state of some indicators we follow.

  • The yield curve is on a flattening trend that started signaling the beginning of the end of the inflation trades since the flattener began last April.
  • The Silver/Gold ratio has failed to establish any sort of firm signal to back the inflation trades since silver blew out with the ill-fated #silversqueeze promotion a year ago. That remains the case today.
  • Canada’s TSX-V index has gone bearish nominally and never did break its downtrend in relation to the senior TSX index. This is negative signaling for the more speculative inflation trades.
  • The Baltic Dry index of global shipping prices is in the tank, so to speak, having topped in October and dropped by 75% since.
  • Credit spreads are still intact, but bear watching as nominal junk bonds come under stress.
  • Industrial metals are still rising vs. the gold price, a still-intact macro positive, although Copper/Gold ratio continues to be undecided and a potential warning.
  • Gold had exploded upward vs. US (SPX/SPY) and global (ACWX) stocks. As we noted in an NFTRH update at the time, it would be subject to a potentially severe pullback whether or not the ratio has bottomed. The pullback started on Wednesday (FOMC day, and who is surprised?), and when gold bottoms vs. stocks the macro will be indicated to go quite bearish. For now, we’re neutral on the short-term.

With that macro backdrop in mind, let’s update three areas, US Stocks, Commodities, and Gold. Continue reading "A Macro View For Stocks, Commodities And Gold" →

Gold Has Stalled At Equilibrium

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Back in April 2020, in my post, I had surmised "Gold Could Fly Over A Helicopter Throwing Money" as the fourth round of Quantitative Easing (QE4) had started a month earlier in March 2020 with an initial pledge to inject $700 billion via asset purchases to support U.S. liquidity. The price of gold was $1,681 at that time.

We all knew that the printing press should push gold prices higher. I tried to calculate the possible target area for the gold price using comparative analysis of the past period, and then I set the range of three goals: $2,000-$2,200-$2,540. Your reaction had come as follows.

Gold Poll

The ultra-bullish $2,540 target dominated the ballot. However, the second bet with a more realistic $2,000 target was the closest yet as we saw the all-time high at $2,075 in August 2020. I guess I found the reason for this outcome in the monthly chart below. Continue reading "Gold Has Stalled At Equilibrium" →

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 1/16/2022 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Weekly Chart - Stock Market Forecast

While my forecast for a weak or "false" breakout in my last forecast has proven correct, I still won't have that much confidence in the sustainability of this top until we have a clear break below the support level at $450 per share and a weekly close below that area.

The Fed is running the show with its endless printing of money. Imagine yourself back in high school and working your tail off to scrape the money together to buy a car. In the meantime, you see several kids show up at your school in brand new BMWs that daddy bought. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast" →

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Posted on by The INO.com Team

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 1/2/2022 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Weekly Chart - Stock Market Forecast

The Fed again interjected itself into the markets, and the downside follow through I was forecasting was squelched by the end of trading on Monday, then we flew back up to whipsaw out all the stops set above the highs! Since then, we sit and spin.

I still don't believe the breakout is sustainable and that we will turn lower. However, it may take a week or two to burn off the speed of the rally back up to the highs.

I'm not going to change any of my open trades, and this whipsaw reinforces my choice to take short exposure in the last forecast in individual stocks vs. the market index! Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast" →