Predictive Modeling Suggests A New Gold Rally

One of our readers’ favorite tools is the Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system. This tool maps out technical and price patterns into an array of similar setups using historical data, then applies that data to current and future price bars. Using the ADL predictive modeling tool, we can see into the future based on historical technical analysis that maps statistically relevant price activity and shows us the highest probability outcomes.

Monthly ADL Gold Predictions

In this research article, we’re going to focus on Gold and how current price action suggests a bottom is likely near the $1720 level. The YELLOW price channels on this Monthly Gold chart highlight exactly where we believe support is located for Gold. If this $1700 price level is breached to the downside, then the previous lows, near $1400, are the next support level for Gold.

Our ADL predictive modeling system suggests the $1720 support level will hold, prompting a new rally to levels above $2200 within 30 to 60+ days. The ADL system predicts an aggressive move in Gold near May or June 2021. The move higher may happen earlier than the ADL Monthly predictions indicate. There is a chance that a move back above $1850 starts the move higher before the end of March or April 2021 – propelling Gold toward the $2300+ peak. The actual peak level predicted by the ADL predictive modeling system is $2315.

predictive modeling

2-Week ADL Predicts Gold May Start To Rally Near Mid-March

This 2-Week Gold Chart highlights a similar ADL price prediction. What we find interesting about this ADL predictive modeling outcome is the similar price predictions originating from vastly different origination points. The Monthly ADL prediction originates from a date of August 1, 2020 – the peak price bar. This 2-Week ADL prediction originates from a date of November 23, 2020 – the intermediate low DOJI bar before the recent continue downward trend targeting the YELLOW price channel. Continue reading "Predictive Modeling Suggests A New Gold Rally"

Gold & Silver: The King Fights Back

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield spiked to 1.61% last week for the first time in more than a year. The U.S. dollar, aka “King,” fought back to the upside on this growth of the yield. Investors ran out of other assets, including precious metals, and its price dropped.

Let us see the updated structure of the U.S. dollar index (DXY) in the chart below.

dollar

It looks like the DXY moves according to your favorite orange path to the upside that was published last week. However, the sharp drop below the earlier valley eliminated both scenarios. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: The King Fights Back"

Watch Gold, Leave Silver Alone

It is time to update the charts as gold triggered the former valley of $1765 last Friday.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) opens this post.

Dollar Index

Most of you agreed last month with the plan that the dollar index will extend its consolidation to the upside, making a zigzag first to the downside and then to the upside with the target area between 91.40 and 91.80 (blue box). The former was your favorite goal, and it was hit with a margin as the price reached 91.60 at the top of this month. Continue reading "Watch Gold, Leave Silver Alone"

Gold Could Be Setting Up For A Breakout

There has been quite a bit of chatter related to precious metals lately. The rally in Cryptos, particularly Bitcoin, and various other stocks have raised expectations that Gold and Silver have been overlooked as a true hedging instrument. As these rallies continue in various other stocks and sectors, Gold and Silver have continued to trade sideways over the past 6+ months – when and how will it end?

Gold Support Near $1765 May Become A New Launchpad

My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is an indication of a strong support level. As you can see from the Gold Futures Weekly chart below, if Gold price levels hold above $1765 then we feel the next upside rally in metals could prompt a move targeting $2160, then $2400.

Gold

The February 2021 Gold contract expires on February 24 – only a few days away. The CME Delivery Report shows an incredible amount of contracts already giving notice of a “Delivery Request”. This suggests that on or near February 25, a supply squeeze for Gold and Silver may become a very real component of price. Continue reading "Gold Could Be Setting Up For A Breakout"

Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal

Corrections in Gold and Gold Stocks are completely normal in an inflationary macro market phase.

Every week I notice the agony ratcheting up incrementally. While the rest of the casino takes off to the speculative heavens, gold sits on its heavy ass and the gold miners go nowhere in a downward-biased perma-correction. Or so it seems. It’s all normal and I’ll explain why.

First of all, it is not healthy to be railing against unseen nefarious manipulative interests. That is emotion and emotion has to be kept out of it (and yes, I get as aggravated as the next guy sometimes, but it cannot affect your plan or you will be the victim, the mark). You have to take what the market gives you and roll with it. All markets are manipulated when you consider that the greatest manipulation of all is courtesy of the Federal Reserve, implementing it's MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), err, that is TMM (Total Market Manipulation) toward desired ends.

The primary tool in that manipulation is inflation. The oldest trick in the Fed’s book. But they can only inflate under cover of a deflationary macro and the 2020 COVID-crash made that the story and as yet it’s a condition that keeps on giving license to the inflators. But very likely sometime in 2021, our indicators will signal a failure into another deflationary liquidation or a more intense inflationary problem, neither of which would be positive for the economy. Continue reading "Gold & Gold Stock Corrections Are Normal"