Tag: technical analysis

A Poisoned Silver Arrow

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

There is a quote from my post in November of 2020 - "Silver could spoil this party where the stars aligned for DXY and gold." I've meant that the uncompleted chart structure in the silver graph could signal a more complex correction despite the bullish move as it was just the junction between larger downside moves. These words turned prophetic as a poisoned silver arrow hit precious metals badly last week.

Hold on tight; the roller-coaster ride carries on.

Let us start with the silver chart below, and you will see why I chose it to be the first.

Silver Daily Chart

You saw this chart a month ago when I was questioning "Could Santa Only Visit Gold?" as I doubted the non-stop rocket move for silver.

It is the exact same chart with an updated price graph. The green leg (ii) of the joint moved exactly as projected in December. It just traveled a longer distance equal to 1.414 of the green leg (i). That is why I turned the orange trend channel higher. Continue reading "A Poisoned Silver Arrow" →

Chart Analysis: A Bigger Picture View Of HUI

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

In NFTRH we did a lot of work managing the oncoming correction, the valid reasons behind it (these reasons are beyond the scope of this post but don’t listen to the perma-bulls, they were more than valid and readable in advance), the now nearly 5-month-old correction (technically still intact) and more recently the improved risk vs. reward after HUI hit our long-standing ‘best’ target of 280 +/-.

There is another downside target at 260 +/- but it may just be time for the drudgery (AKA consolidation/correction to bleed out the excesses) to end. The answer to confirm that will be left to ongoing work we do on shorter time frames, including daily charts in the weekly report and in-week updates. But for this post, I want to take a perspective look at HUI’s weekly chart.

This is an old chart we used to manage the previous bull market top and long road down to the depths of the bear, in lockdown by the 55 week EMA. With the excitement happening during FOMC week, as the Fed tells us all what we already knew (it’s funny munny for as far as the eye can see, or at least as long as the Continuum permits) it pays to have some bigger picture perspective while positioning.

I think it is a notable, if minor, positive that Huey has so far held the EMA 55 for the first time on the way up as it had held below it during the worst of the bear market on the way down. It never hurts to see things rhyme when using TA. Of more importance, HUI has held the first layer of support on the predictable pullback from all too clear resistance at 375 (a target we had loaded since mid-2019).

The 260 +/- target also includes strong weekly chart support and until the downward consolidation from Continue reading "Chart Analysis: A Bigger Picture View Of HUI" →

Buy Setup For Gold, Two Paths For Silver

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

The plan posted at the end of November works amazingly well, so far as price accurately charts the preset pattern at least for the gold, which could offer a good trading opportunity soon.

Let us check the "King's" chart first to see what's happening.

Dollar Index

I switched to a smaller time frame to focus on the current leg down, as we saw on the chart before.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is building a slightly up-sloping sideways consolidation (orange channel). I think we can see another leg up to touch both the upside of the orange channel and the trendline resistance of the black dashed downtrend. This area around 91.5 would offer double resistance. Continue reading "Buy Setup For Gold, Two Paths For Silver" →

Could Santa Only Visit Gold?

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

We entered the most awaited period of the year when gold bugs could enjoy the traditional end of the year Santa Claus Rally. Let's check the charts to see if everything is setting up for a rally.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

Most of you were right that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) will not follow the pink clone to the upside and continue down.

The DXY finally broke the valley of a consolidation. This gave the acceleration to the move down and buoyed the precious metals' prices significantly. Now, there are no other barriers ahead of the former valley area of 88. The DXY, aka "King," could dress up like a Santa, at least for gold. Please read till the end to see why I didn't mention silver. Continue reading "Could Santa Only Visit Gold?" →

Metals Ratios Continue To Indicate Inflation

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

And that is welcome for monetary and fiscal policymakers of course since inflation is the only trick they have up their sleeve to bail this mess out once again. And this is no comment on COVID-19. The economy was slowly decelerating last year well before COVID-19 showed up.

The yield curve bottomed and turned up in August of 2019 as manufacturing was slipping, long-term yields were tanking and other economic signals were fraying in the wake of the trade war. So please, no convenient COVID excuses.

See: Yield Curve Hits New 2019 Steepener Today

They were preparing to inflate because the Continuum told them to prepare. COVID-19 dropped the final hammer on the situation and brought the inflation on quicker and more intensely than might have otherwise been the case.

30 year yield

So anyway, on to the lovable Amigos. Continue reading "Metals Ratios Continue To Indicate Inflation" →