The Energy Information Administration reported that August crude oil production averaged 11.346 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 416,000 b/d from July. The surge was led by a 126,000 b/d increase in Texas and a 74,000 b/d rise in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the increases were broadly based, implying a lagged-response to rising oil prices this year has created enough incentive to ignite production. The large rise in Texas was also unexpected due to reported pipeline constraints.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for October, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in July at 2.806 billion barrels. It shows inventories rising in the third quarter, contrary to the normal seasonal trend. However, it forecasts that stocks will drop in December to 2.817 billion after the Iranian sanctions are expected to go into effect.
Throughout 2019, OECD inventories are generally expected to rise, ending the year with 98 million barrels more than at the end of 2018. The expected drop in Iranian production, due to the U.S. sanctions, is forecast to be more-than-offset by increases from other producers, such as the U.S., Canada and the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia has recently stated that KSA can produce at least 12 million barrels per day. If it does increase output to that level, this would be a major “surprise” to world markets since its production has never exceeded 11 million. Continue reading "World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, October 2018"
The Energy Information Administration reported that July crude oil production averaged 10.964 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 269,000 b/d from June. The surge was partly on the back of a rebound of 189,000 b/d in the Gulf of Mexico to a new record high of 1.849 mmbd. In addition, new record-high output was reached in four states: Texas (4.469), North Dakota (1.260), New Mexico (669,000) and Oklahoma (543,000).
Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Sets Records In July"
The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in July at 2.804 billion barrels. It shows inventories rising in the third quarter, contrary to the usual seasonal trend. However, it forecasts that stocks will drop in December to 2.798 billion after the Iranian sanctions are expected to go into effect.
Throughout 2019, OECD inventories are generally expected to rise, ending the year with 72 million barrels more than at the end of 2017. The anticipated drop in Iranian production, due to the U.S. sanctions, is forecast to be offset by increases from other producers, such as the U.S., Canada and the Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE.
Saudi Arabia has recently stated that it can produce at least 12 million barrels per day. If it does increase output to that level, this would be a major “surprise” to world markets since its production has never exceeded 11 million. Continue reading "World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, September 2018"
The Energy Information Administration reported that June crude oil production averaged 10.674 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 231,000 b/d from May. The surge was partly on the back of a rebound of 154,000 b/d in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) which had fallen due to unplanned maintenance. In addition, there was a surge of 165,000 b/d in Texas and a loss of 45,000 b/d in Alaska due to normal summer maintenance.
The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 223,000 b/d lower than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 10.897 mmbd.
EIA has since kept weekly production estimates essentially flat, as it apparently waits for the monthly survey numbers to catch-up. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Growth Rebounds In June"
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