Disney's Long-Term Vision - Growth

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


The Long-Term Vision – Growth and Direct to Consumer Offerings

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) reported an information dense earnings report that included mixed numbers (as comparable numbers from the previous year were banner numbers), its vision for the future via streaming while cutting off Netflix (NFLX) in the process. As always, a conspicuous ESPN remained at the forefront of investors’ minds, serving as the root cause of this streaming initiative as profits and revenue from the Media Networks division have stalled out over the past few years. Simply put, Disney is going all-in on a Disney branded streaming service come 2019, more on that later. As investors digest the earnings report and fixate on the eroding Media Networks division, I think Disney is offering a long-term buying opportunity near ~$100 per share. Although ESPN makes up a disproportionate amount of the company’s revenue and income, all of its other franchises are posting robust growth hence Disney will be relying less on its ESPN franchise over the coming years. It’s noteworthy to highlight (when comparing year-end fiscal numbers) that in 2011 its Media Networks segment made up 70% of Disney’s income. That percentage has decreased to 49% at the end of 2016. It curtailed its Media Networks contribution to the company's income by 30% since 2011. Disney’s perpetual stock slump and roller coaster ride over the last two years has almost entirely been attributable to the decrease in ESPN subscribers and subsequent revenue slowdown. I feel too much of an emphasis is being placed on ESPN as it weighs less on overall profits. Disney is evolving to address this deteriorating business segment with initiatives put forth previously and doubling down during its recent conference call. Disney offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity considering the growth, pipeline, Media Networks remediation plan, diversity of its portfolio, share repurchase program and dividend growth. Continue reading "Disney's Long-Term Vision - Growth"

Disney Quietly Retreats - Buying Opportunity

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


The Quiet Buying Opportunity

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) has quietly retreated from its recent highs of $116 to sub $104 thus presenting a buying opportunity in this media juggernaut heading into earnings. We’ve all heard the endless bickering over its slumping ESPN franchise. Although ESPN makes up a disproportionate amount of the company’s revenue, all of its other franchises are posting healthy growth hence Disney will be relying less and less on its ESPN franchise over the coming years. Disney’s perpetual stock slump leading up to its recent resurgence was almost entirely attributable to the decrease in ESPN subscribers and subsequent revenue and profit declines from that franchise. The ESPN franchise within the Media Networks segment generates revenue/operating income that is disproportionate to the amount of the company’s overall revenue and operating profit. Thus, one can see why investors were spooked after consecutive significant declines in ESPN subscribers and thus financial numbers over the past three years. Excluding ESPN, Disney has been executing well and reporting record numbers throughout all of its other business segments. Disney has a deep and diversified enough entertainment portfolio that makes a compelling case that these ESPN fears are overblown. Disney offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity considering the growth, pipeline, diversity of its portfolio, share repurchase program and dividend growth in light of this recent retreat.

Long-Term Narrative and Positive Analyst Sentiment

I’ve been a long bull of Disney (DIS) stock, particularly since the post-ESPN induced sell-off throughout 2016. Since the lows of October 2016, Disney has seen a huge appreciation in stock price, breaking out to above $116 per share before this current downtrend. This upswing has been on the heels of multiple catalysts such as of reporting record annual results, breaking the all-time worldwide box-office record, witnessing a slew of analyst upgrades, Iger extending his contract as CEO, ESPN woes subsiding, Shanghai Disney opening and Disney’s movie line-up announced through 2020. This inflection point coincided with Doctor Strange, Moana and Star Wars Rouge One in calendar Q4 of 2016 followed by record openings for its live action film, Beauty and the Beast and Guardians of the Galaxy 2. The stock fell from the $120s in late 2015 to the high $80s and had been stuck in the $80-$90 range all throughout 2016. That stock slump offered investors an opportunity to purchase a high-quality company at a significant discount. Continue reading "Disney Quietly Retreats - Buying Opportunity"

Disney: The Media Juggernaut Continues Hot Streak

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


The Media Juggernaut

I’ve been a long bull of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) stock, particularly since the post-ESPN induced sell-off in throughout 2016. Since the lows of October 2016, Disney has seen a huge appreciation in stock price, breaking out to above $115 per share level as of late. This upswing has been on the heels of multiple catalysts such as of reporting record annual results, breaking the all-time worldwide box-office record, witnessing a slew of analyst upgrades, Iger extending his contract as CEO, ESPN woes subsiding, Shanghai Disney opening and Disney’s movie line-up announced through 2020. This inflection point coincided with Doctor Strange, Moana and Star Wars Rouge One in Q4 of 2016 followed by a record opening for its live action film, Beauty and the Beast. The stock fell from the $120s in late 2015 to the high $80s and had been stuck in the $80-$90 range all throughout 2016. This perpetual slump was almost entirely attributable to the decrease in ESPN subscribers and subsequent revenue and profit declines from that franchise. The ESPN franchise within the Media Networks segment generates revenue/operating income that is disproportionate to the amount of the company’s overall revenue and operating profit. Thus, one can see why investors were spooked after consecutive significant declines in ESPN subscribers and thus financial numbers over the past three years. Excluding ESPN, Disney has been executing well and reporting record numbers throughout all of its other business segments. Disney has a deep and diversified enough entertainment portfolio that made a compelling case that these ESPN fears were being overblown. Disney offered and still offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity considering the growth, pipeline, diversity of its portfolio, share repurchase program and dividend. Continue reading "Disney: The Media Juggernaut Continues Hot Streak"

Disney Continues To Deliver - Iger Extends Contract

Noah Kiedrowski - INO.com Contributor - Biotech


Introduction

Over the previous six months, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) has logged a solid 22% gain, moving from ~$92 to ~$113. I’ve been long Disney and wrote several pieces on how the strong fundamentals made a compelling case to buy shares when the stock traded down into the low $90s. The compelling long-term investment opportunity was drawn considering the growth drivers, pipeline, diversity of its portfolio, share repurchase program and dividend. As the first quarter of 2017 comes to an end, Disney continues to deliver strong fundamentals and catalysts moving into the future. At a high-level, Disney’s board has decided to extend Bob Iger’s contract to remain CEO, direct-to-consumer ESPN offerings are in the works, analyst upgrades continue to be issued and Beauty and Beast delivered record breaking numbers to start its film release slate on a strong note for 2017 (Figure 1).

NYSE:DIS
Figure 1 – Six-Month Chart For Disney

Bob Iger Extends Contract

Disney’s Board of Directors announced that it had extended Bob Iger’s contract as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer to July 2, 2019. Bob Iger had been the subject of increasing succession talk after the lead candidate to replace Iger as CEO, Tom Staggs went on to pursue other opportunities and left the company last year. Continue reading "Disney Continues To Deliver - Iger Extends Contract"

Realizing Gains Without Owning Shares Via Leveraging Cash

Introduction

I’ve written many articles highlighting the advantages options trading and how this technique, when deployed in opportunistic or conservative scenarios may augment overall portfolio returns while mitigating risk in a meaningful manner. Here I’d like to focus on leveraging cash-on-hand to engage in options trading, more specifically selling covered puts. In laymen’s terms, I’ll cover option variables, an example, strategy and empirical results with commentary.

The Questions

1. Why buy a stock now when you can purchase the stock in the future at a lower price while being paid to do so?

2. Why buy stocks at all when you can make money on the underlying volatility without ever owning the shares?

Overview

Timing the market has proven to be very difficult if not altogether impossible. However creating opportunities to lock-in downward movement in a given stock one is looking to own is possible. If a stock of interest has substantially fallen to at or near a 52-week low, then one has an option to “buy” the stock at an even lower price at a later date while collecting premium income in the process. Alternatively, it's also possible to make money on the option itself without owning any shares of the company via realizing options premium gains as the underlying stock appreciates in value off its lows. This is called a covered put option, covered in the sense that one has cash to back the option contract. Leveraging covered put options in opportunistic scenarios may augment overall portfolio returns while mitigating risk when looking to initiate a future position in an individual stock. In the event of a covered put, this is accomplished by leveraging the cash one currently has by selling a put contract against those funds for a premium. It's also possible to make money on the option itself without owning any shares of the company via realizing options premium gains as the underlying stock appreciates in value. Continue reading "Realizing Gains Without Owning Shares Via Leveraging Cash"