US Dollar On Plan, Attended By Gold/Silver Ratio

US dollar (DXY) has activated its Inverted H&S, Gold/Silver maintains its uptrend, watch silver going forward…

I do not make predictions because I do not pretend to be a guru.* But NFTRH has been tracking what has been an uptrend in the US dollar for all of 2021, keeping us well aware of the potentials being realized from late summer into the fall. A higher low was made in May and now a higher high, completing an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that we’ve been projecting since USD put in the theoretical right side shoulder last spring.

Until recently it was a projection. Now it is active after testing the (dashed) neckline, holding the (blue) 50-day average and busting to a new high for the cycle. Simple, no predictions but a heck of a lot of attention and respect for the process.

You can see the three targets we’ve had laid out for the world’s reserve currency, which has logically caused market stress of late. It’s as simple as ‘you live (pump markets) by devaluing the currency, you die (markets correct) when it rebels. Now if the rebellion does not become something more than moderate and should end at target #1, we’ll probably go back to our regularly scheduled programming of pervasive inflation problems on the macro.

As you can see, the three targets are Fibonacci retrace levels. All doable depending on how aggressively risk goes off and man and machine seek liquidity (as opposed to market speculation) in the near term. Of note, the pattern itself has a theoretical measured target of 97. Again, not a prediction but now that the pattern is active a viable objective.

us dollar (dxy)

And speaking of liquidity, the issue is compounded when USD’s fellow Horseman (of the Apocalypse) is riding alongside. Continue reading "US Dollar On Plan, Attended By Gold/Silver Ratio"

Top Currencies VS. Gold In 2019: Last Man Standing

It’s time to find out in this traditional yearly post if there were any currencies that could beat the mighty gold this year.

7 currencies represent the fiat money: US dollar (USD) and 6 components of the US dollar index (DXY) placed by weight: euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK) and the Swiss franc (CHF). This time I added the Bitcoin from the crypto-world.

Before we get down to the results of 2019, let us see below how you forecasted the future back at the end of December 2018.

LLLL

The majority of you again, as last year, bet that the primary currency (USD) would defeat all other rivals to come out on top in 2019. The readers’ geography played a crucial role here. The second choice was the Japanese yen; I guess it was selected as it topped the chart last year.

Bitcoin ranked the third; it was the top loser last year. It looks like some readers watch my Pendulum experiments closely.

Let’s look at the diagram below to find out the results. Continue reading "Top Currencies VS. Gold In 2019: Last Man Standing"

Fiat Majors Vs. Gold In 2018

It’s time for my traditional yearly post about the dynamics of “modern” money (fiat) compared to the “old” or “perpetual” money (gold) in the current year.

Fiat money is represented by 7 currencies: US Dollar (USD) and 6 components of the US Dollar Index (DXY) placed by weight: Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish kKrona (SEK) and the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Before we get down to the results of 2018, let us see how did you see the future back at the end of December 2017.

fiat

The most of you bet that the king currency (USD) would beat all the rest in 2018. Your second favorite is the single currency (EUR), which is the top rival of USD.

There could be at least two reasons for this ballot result a year ago. The first one is more obvious and is coming from the country distribution of the INO.com web traffic as more than half of it comes from the United States. The other reason is also logical as the US Dollar was the top loser last year with -10% and you could bet on it using the knowledge about the “Pendulum effect”, which pushes laggards to the top.

Now let’s move on to the results of 2018. Continue reading "Fiat Majors Vs. Gold In 2018"

Top Currencies Vs. Gold: Which Fiat Could Beat Gold in 2017?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


This is a traditional post with a performance review of top currencies versus gold at the end of the year.

The fiat money is represented by 7 currencies: US Dollar (USD) and 6 components of the US Dollar Index (DXY) placed by weight: Euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK) and the Swiss Franc (CHF).

Chart 1. Year-To-Date Dynamics Of Top 7 Currencies Versus Gold: The Only Winner

Gold vs. World Currencies
Diagram by Aibek Burabayev; Source: tradingview.com

This year the gold was almost as strong as last year compared to the top currencies and only one rival could escape from its death grip. The Euro was also very strong this year as the Euro Index scored a hefty 7.26% gain against its peers (USD, GBP, JPY, CHF). It helped the euro to outweigh gold by 2%. Last year the EUR finished on 5th place.

Below is the full ranking for Y2017 with the Y2016 places in the brackets. Continue reading "Top Currencies Vs. Gold: Which Fiat Could Beat Gold in 2017?"