The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that February crude oil production averaged 10.474 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 215,000 b/d from February, setting a new all-time record for the U.S. The large increase was on top of a 264,000 b/d gain in February.
The largest increases were recorded in Texas (159,000 b/d), New Mexico (38,000 b/d) and Oklahoma (15,000 b/d).
The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 54,000 b/d higher than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 10.420 mmbd. EIA’s most recent weekly estimate for the week ending May 25th was 10.769 mmbd.
The March figure was a year-over-year gain of 1.33 mmbd. When the estimated gain in “other liquids” are added, the total gain is 1.74 mmbd. That is larger than the estimated growth in world demand, which includes NGLs for petrochemical demand.
Looking ahead, the EIA is projecting December 2018 output to rise to 11.430 mmbd, up 1.4 mmbd from December 2017. In addition, EIA projects that other supply (liquids) will rise to 6.86 mmbd, up 570,000 b/d from last December, for a total gain of 1.97 mmbd.
On average, oil-directed rigs have risen by five rigs per week thus far in 2018. Due to the lag between rig count to prices, this average should rise in the months just ahead.
Conclusions
The annual rise in U.S. production of crude and liquids of about 2.0 mmbd is larger than the predicted growth in world demand. Assuming OPEC makes up for the loss in Venezuela, and no material loss in Iran, inventories should be rise slowly through the second half of 2019. Such a development would weigh heavily on prices.
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Best,
Robert Boslego
INO.com Contributor - Energies
Disclosure: This contributor does not own any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.
In your first sentence you meant to say March - not Feb.
As 10,474 agrees with the March number at bottom left in your spread sheet of data;
which is the same number you used in your first sentence.