We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM an IB of Peregrine Finanial Group to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Busines, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Precious Metal Futures-- Precious metals finished this week strong with gold leading the charge higher finishing up for the 6th consecutive trading session in the August contract to trade right around 1,631 up around another $11 dollars on strong demand and higher by over $40 dollars for the week continuing its bullish momentum while silver futures for the week traded in a sideways pattern up around $.20 today to trade right at 28.61 an ounce only up around .15 cents for the week. Silver futures have been in a sideways pattern for the last several weeks and really does not have a trend, however in my opinion it looks like silver possibly may have bottomed and is starting to climb the ladder higher while gold futures major resistance is at the five week high of 1,642 which was hit last week if that is broken I think you could head all the way back up to 1,670 or even higher very quickly due to the fact that investors are using the gold market as a currency at this point. Platinum futures for the October contract soared this week around $70 higher while today traded quietly up around six dollars to close right around 1,500 an ounce also due to the fact of buyers coming in thinking that prices have gotten too cheap in the precious metal sectors while copper futures had also a very solid week to the upside last week closing at 328.50 and this week settling up about 1000 points in the July contract at 338.50 right near a three week high on optimism that the Greek elections will be positive for commodities and stocks. In my opinion I believe a lot of commodities have bottomed in the last couple of weeks and it looks like they're starting to turn the corner especially gold, platinum, and in my opinion it looks like silver is in the bottoming pattern with really solid chart structure which tells me that something is going to happen in a big way in silver prices in the next couple of weeks. The U.S dollar was sharply lower against the euro currency this week due to the fact of the Spanish bailout and major profit taking in the U.S dollar sending it lower against most of the major foreign currencies propelling many commodity prices including the precious metals higher this week.
Energy Futures--- Energy futures this week traded basically unchanged after a lot of volatility especially on Monday when the Spanish bailout of the 125 billion came in to play pushing crude oil prices sharply higher Monday morning by about $2.50 only to sell off and finish down over $2.50 however last week's close at 84.39 compared to this Fridays trade of 84.45 gaining just a fraction. Crude oil futures have major support at 81.50 which was hit three times in the last week before rebounding and in my opinion with the stock market looking strong once again pushing up oil prices and some of the other commodities that the energy sector may have bottomed in the short term. Unleaded gasoline futures were basically unchanged for the week as well trading higher on this Friday afternoon by 200 points to settle right around 2.70 a gallon still near contract lows forming a bottoming pattern with heating oil which was also higher by 200 points this Friday afternoon but unchanged for the trading week trading at 2.65 a gallon still near contract lows also trying to form a bottom. The story this week was natural gas futures skyrocketing 32 points yesterday on the inventory showing much less than what was expected also it looks like we’re going to have a hotter summer this year which is also propelling prices higher in the July contract to close at 2.50 with a double bottom on the daily charts looking at the possible yearly lows might be in place. The Greek elections are Sunday night and that will have a lot to do with price action on Monday morning just like it did last Monday and as we go into this weekend the early feeling is that Greece will stay in the Euro and accept austerity measures, however that is not written in stone and if they do not accept those measures you could see the Euro currency sharply lower on Monday morning. In the last couple of weeks China has purchased more than double the amount of crude oil then it usually does which is suggesting to some traders that a possible bottom is in the crude market or why else would China be loading up at these price levels but only time will tell the see if the Chinese are correct at purchasing at these levels
Stock Futures--- The S&P 500 this week is slightly higher by about 8 points in the September contract at 1330 closing out last Friday at 1322 in a pretty quiet week except for last Monday which saw an incredible volatile trading session with the S&P trading 21 points higher off the Spanish bailout news at 1342 only to reverse and finish down 21 points in as wild trading session that I've seen in a long period time, however later in the week it did rally back and if we do break above 1342 we would make a 4 week highs which my opinion might happen next week. The NASDAQ futures are up 20 points this Friday afternoon basically unchanged for the trading week as well trading around 2554 waiting for news about the Greek elections this Sunday which I I'm sure will dictate Monday's price action while the Dow Jones industrial average is up around 65 points this Friday afternoon closing higher by about 150 points for the week on optimism about Europe and the fact that the S&P 500 is still relatively cheap compared to other investment classes. It will be a very interesting next week in my opinion due to the fact that Sunday night the markets will be on pins and needles with the outcome of the Greek elections, however the S&P 500 had shrugged off all of the negative news in the last couple months and still is trading right at 1330 which in my opinion is very solid and if any good news comes out of this market that could propel prices right back up to contract highs which in my opinion could happen later in the year. The next major report that will affect the stock futures is the monthly unemployment report which is 3 weeks from today with the last report being negative adding less jobs than expected so traders are wondering if last month was just a fluke or if this will be back-to-back disappointing reports but only time will tell and we still have three weeks to digest the Spanish and European situation. If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Trading is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites.
Meat Futures-- Live cattle futures this week in Chicago took it on the chin ending up down over 400 points hitting a 7 week low in price on concerns of an overabundance in supply now within an eyelash away from making contract lows once again finishing down around 40 points in Chicago this Friday afternoon. Feeder cattle prices for the August contract were also down around 300 points for the week on able to penetrate twice above 161 a pound so traders took it the other way sending futures down this Friday another 25 points still near the upper and of its trading range in the last couple of months. One bright spot in the meats this week was the lean hogs which were slightly lower today but unchanged for the trading week right at 8 week highs on a Chinese purchase of possibly over 1,000,000 tons this year which would be a record amount purchased from China supporting futures prices which several months ago had traded as high as 101 a pound then plunged all the way to the low 80s only to rally sharply and at this point I think prices might be topping out in the short term due to the fact that the cattle prices have topped out already. The cattle and hog markets can get very volatile in the summer time due to the fact of any weather problems that might occur such as hot and dry weather affecting feet costs as well as the health of the cattle and hogs themselves causing giant fluctuations so if you are looking to possibly speculate in the markets make sure you use a stop loss to try to minimize your risk when you are wrong on any given trade
Bond Futures--- Bond futures this week traded basically unchanged to slightly higher finishing up 17 points in the 30 year bond this Friday trading at 149-24 in the September contract while the 10 year note has also rallied about 8 ticks currently trading at 133 – 25 with the yield of 1.72% which is far off the lows of about 1.45% which was hit earlier last month on major concerns of the European debt situation. The 30 year yield is 2.72% which is still incredibly low but it is off the lows of about 2.50% while the five-year note is up 6 ticks at 124 – 03 yielding 0.69% with its low yield of 0.59% which was struck last week again as countries and large funds are parking money in the treasuries as a safe haven. The treasury market has been a terrific bull market for many years and the yields are at such a low point you wonder if you're a long-term investor with a long term horizon possibly selling at these levels in the futures market trying to pick a top or near a top could be profitable in the long term, however with the federal government stating that the yields will stay low until at least 2014 that tells you that the Fed is buying the bonds which keeps yields very low so I still believe they will stay low for a couple years but eventually after 2014 which is a long ways away when you trade futures or stocks to predict but I would have to think rates eventually are going to have to climb. I think higher yields are good for America and good for retired people who are looking for fixed income without taking any risk but at this point there are no yields in a bank or in a CD which hurts a certain section of people therefore they are forced to buy stocks or commodities which are inherently risky.
Coffee Futures--- Coffee futures is week dropped another 500 points in New York but finished higher today by 80 points at 150.00 a pound in the July contract creating a new 2 ½ year low also making a fresh contract low continuing its grinding bearish momentum which in my opinion will continue to head lower possibly into the mid-130s within the next month or so due to the fact of a lack of demand and an ample supply at this time. Volatility in coffee at this point is extremely low and if you are interested in getting into the coffee market I would look at put or call options because they are relatively cheap compared to where they have been in recent years. I think if you are a longer-term investor and if coffee prices do get down into the low 140s or possibly into the 130s and you have a long term horizon I think that could be an excellent buying opportunity if prices slide to those bargain-basement levels.
Cotton Futures--- Cotton futures this week had many volatile trading sessions finishing unchanged this Friday afternoon going into the weekend with cotton prices for the December contract which is considered the new crop which we harvest this fall settling right at 70.60 up around 70 points for the week, however traded as high as 73.08 yesterday before selling off on profit taking. Cotton prices are becoming very volatile with a low of around $.64 last week before skyrocketing higher as many commodities did on optimism about the European and Chinese situations ,however profit-taking sent prices right back down as we head into the heat of the summer months. Here in Illinois and Indiana we are suffering one of the worst dry spells in over 130 years, however we don't grow much cotton more corn and soybeans but my point is the summer as a long drawn out season with many problems which can occur and I still believe cotton prices are relatively cheap. Remember though when you buy or sell futures contracts shows must use a stop loss trying to minimize your risk by using a proper money management technique which I use is generally risking between 1 or 2% of your account balance on any given trade therefore if you are wrong you still have another day to play because you're not risking an exorbitant amount of money.
Grain Futures--- Grain futures this week in Chicago had many volatile trading sessions with soybeans up 7 cents in the November contract which is the new crop which will be harvested this fall settling at 13.16 still down over 25 cents for the trading week while corn futures for the December contract finished down another 8 cents to close right around 5.08 a bushel down over $.37 for the week on a terrific growing season to start with many parts of the Midwest receiving adequate rain, however here in Illinois and Indiana we are suffering one of the driest Junes on record in over 131 years, however the market is not reacting to that news. Wheat futures for the July contract were down another eight cents to close right around 6.15 down around $.17 still stuck in a choppy and directionless trade and I still advise traders to absolutely stay away from the wheat market at this point while rough rice futures were slightly lower at 13.92 continuing its bearish momentum right near contract lows not reacting to any dryness in the Midwest because rough rice is a global commodity grown in many different countries. In my opinion I believe the drought situation here in Illinois and Indiana will get worse and I think there will be cuts in the next estimate of crop production in the next report we have not rained in nearly 4 weeks and that is very difficult to average 166 bushels an acre in corn when we haven't rained in four weeks so right now on putting it on the record I'm lowering all crop estimates across the board in corn and soybeans but only time will tell the see if I'm right.
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Trading is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites.w
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone # (800) 615-7649
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading. Furthermore, Seery Trading is not responsible for the accuracy of the information contained on linked sites.
