Aibek Burabayev, Author at INO.com Trader's Blog

Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?

Posted on June 12, 2018June 12, 2018 by Aibek Burabayev

Last August I posted a chart analysis of one particular commodity market index as I spotted an interesting pattern. As time goes by, we can see how my outlook emerged and after almost a year the market reached another crucial milestone or better yet a decision point.

This index is called The Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB). It is the gauge of the commodities market, which is comprised of 19 commodities: Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, Unleaded Gas, and Wheat.

So, if you watch commodities market, then the two charts below could be of strong interest to you.

Chart 1. Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Monthly: Failed At Resistance

Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Above is an update of the earlier chart. The risk/reward that time ($182) favored a long position as the upside target at the major top ($474) promised to cover risk extensively amid oversold market conditions. Continue reading "Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?" →

Bitcoin Is At A Crossroads

Posted on June 6, 2018 by Aibek Burabayev

Back in December I called for an unbelievable $20k target for the Bitcoin when it traded around $15.6k, and ten days later that target was hit (click on the play button to see how price emerged). It was one hell of the roller coaster ride that month as Bitcoin then lost almost half of its worth in a matter of days right ahead of Christmas falling to $11k.

Rinse and repeat! The crypto king started to grow again, and then I posted another map at the end of 2017, which implied a pullback to the $16k-$20k area before another huge drop to the $7500 area. Amazingly, both the upside and downside forecasted areas were hit accurately (click on the play button to see how price emerged).

The Bitcoin buzz is coming down with the price staying below $10k. It is like a superstar who has seen his best times already and is on the tour to the countries where he is still warmly welcomed as we are not in the $20k euphoria area now (we can call it a “cocaine” time) although you can still buy some pleasant things selling just one coin for more than $7k these days.

In this post, I would like to share with you a familiar pattern I spotted recently on the Bitcoin chart. Continue reading "Bitcoin Is At A Crossroads" →

Crude Oil Could Crash Again

Posted on May 29, 2018May 28, 2018 by Aibek Burabayev

It is interesting how often exaggerated expectations prove to be wrong in the market. Crude oil is the dominant fossil fuel energy source, and therefore it draws a lot of attention as well as speculation.

Looking back, I remember a conversation with my boss earlier in the year who had talked to a large oil producing company and they said that it is highly improbable for crude oil to get over $55 per barrel amid the supply glut. WTI crude almost hit the $73 level this month to break similar pessimistic forecasts that had persisted in the market last year. OPEC’s deal together with Middle East tensions has driven the oil price to a 3-year high benefiting oil producing countries.

But these days I have started to hear different highly optimistic forecasts calling for $80-100 per barrel. When these voices began to grow into a full choir, I began to expect the thunder as this “sweet unison” is the leading contrarian indicator. Continue reading "Crude Oil Could Crash Again" →

Silver Looks Into The Dark Abyss

Posted on May 17, 2018 by Aibek Burabayev

I hadn't updated the silver chart since February when I warned you that the metal dangerously approaches the support of the Triangle pattern. After that, I posted a gold update as I found an amazing historical similarity there.

There’s been so much water under the bridge since February, but nothing had changed in the precious metals markets until the end of last month when the crucial trigger was pulled.

Below is an updated chart of the silver that I would like to share with you these days as it contains an excellent trading opportunity.

Silver Weekly Chart: Triangle Was Broken Down

Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Silver could escape from that troubled situation which I pointed out in February as the price briefly punctured the downside of the Triangle pattern (orange) and then happily reversed higher on the back of broad dollar weakness. Continue reading "Silver Looks Into The Dark Abyss" →

S&P 500 Finishes Consolidation, Fasten Your Seat Belts!

Posted on May 8, 2018May 8, 2018 by Aibek Burabayev

This past February, I drew your attention to the S&P 500 index, which started a consolidation, addressing two critical questions about the future of the index. The most important answer said that we are still in the long-term uptrend and we should keep patience to see the end of the consolidation.

Later in April, I shared an update with you with a detailed plan for two possible options of the ongoing consolidation. The first one implied the development of the familiar Triangular pattern, which in its turn had two possible paths of price action. And the second path with a zigzag inside of the Triangle was drawn with an amazingly accurate prediction as the index just repeated its trajectory.

Another possible option was described within the forecasted Bull Flag pattern. This model didn’t develop as planned as the price couldn’t break below the previous low at $2532; although we were very close to hitting it as the index’s drop reversed just $31 ahead of it at the $2553 level. This plan is very close to invalidation once the price overcomes the earlier top at $2718.

Below I prepared an update of the most valid option for you. Continue reading "S&P 500 Finishes Consolidation, Fasten Your Seat Belts!" →

Author: Aibek Burabayev