What To Expect Under A Biden Presidency

Now that the Associated Press has declared Joe Biden the winner of the 2020 Presidential Election let's take a look at what we might expect from the presumed 46th president and the kind of economy he will inherit – and what he plans to do with it.

Thanks largely to his predecessor, Biden starts off with an inherently strong economy, even as it continues to heal and deal with Covid-19. Assuming that Biden doesn't follow his own comments and some of his advisors about imposing another lockdown, we can probably expect that the economy will eventually get back to the 2-3% annual growth rate we enjoyed before the pandemic.

Biden will also likely benefit from the recently announced introduction of a Covid-19 vaccine, although a lot needs to be done first, like manufacturing and then distributing hundreds of millions of doses worldwide, which will take some time. But assuming the vaccine is as efficacious as Pfizer says it is, that will be a further elixir for economic growth.

It's hard to imagine a Federal Reserve friendlier to the financial markets than the current one, so Biden will benefit from that as well. Biden is also not likely to be a thorn in Jerome Powell's side as much as the current White House occupant. Continue reading "What To Expect Under A Biden Presidency"

Gold & Silver: One More Move Down?

Old trading wisdom was the title for the previous post "Buy Rumors, Sell Facts" played out the same day it was published on the Blog. The price of gold dropped close to 6% from the top of $1966, and the pride of silver suffered even more as it fell more than 9% from the peak of $26.

The real reason behind that strong sell-off was the news that Pfizer's early data showed the COVID-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective, which brightened the outlook for the global economy and triggered the run from the safe-havens. Although my call in the previous post was based on the simple trading logic and the chart structure knowledge, it came true. Thank you for your support with helpful and prophetic votes and comments.

Let's get down to update; I switched to a lower time frame of 4-hour to highlight the current consolidation in more detail.

4 - Hour Gold Chart

This time gold shows a clearer structure than silver as the former broke below the counter-trend consolidation valley at $1859. This validated the current leg down then. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: One More Move Down?"

Strong Demand Fuels Copper Futures Higher

Copper Futures

Copper futures in the December contract is currently trading at 315.40 after settling last Friday in New York at 317.70 a pound up over 200 points, continuing it's bullish momentum as prices are right near a 3 year high.

Fundamentally speaking, this commodity has everything going for it due to extremely strong demand because of the housing market, which continues its torrid pace. I don't think this situation will change anytime soon as I see no reason to be short copper. If you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop-loss under the 10-day low, which stands at 3.0285, as an exit strategy. However, the monetary risk will also be reduced in next week's trade as the chart structure will continue to improve.

Copper prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average. This is the strongest member of the precious metal sector. I still think there's significant room to run to the upside as I will be looking at a possible price pullback before entering into a bullish position.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 25.66 an ounce while currently trading at 24.82 down about $0.85 for the trading week, experiencing tremendous price swings daily as the volatility is extremely high. Continue reading "Strong Demand Fuels Copper Futures Higher"

Using ETFs To "Time" The Market

Most legitimate market participants will tell you not to try and ‘time’ the market. What they mean by that is don’t try and predict when the market is going to fall and when the market is going to climb higher. Historically, this has been extremely difficult to predict with any real accuracy, but ETFs could make it easier for you to accomplish.

So, most advisors tell clients to stay invested in the markets and ride the ups and downs. I fully agree with this thinking because it is very difficult to predict major market moves. For example, while some people did predict the market would crash in March, not so many thought it would tear right back higher as quickly as it did. Even those who did predict the move higher had a hard time predicting wh the bottom of the fall was and when the actual bottom was and, therefore, the absolute ‘best’ time to get back in.

The biggest problem with trying to time the market is that you will miss part of the moves back higher. And knowing when the right time to get back in is more difficult than just riding it out the wave up and down.

Think about it this way. If you sell ABC stock at $100 because you think the market is about to crash. And let’s say that you were right about the market falling. When do you repurchase ABC? Continue reading "Using ETFs To "Time" The Market"

Gold & Silver: "Buy Rumors, Sell Facts"?

When there is something turbulent happening in the world, investors buy the dollar as a safe haven. However, when there is uncertainty in the United States itself, as we have been observing recently with the situation around the 2020 election, money shifts to a universal shelter to precious metals such as gold and silver.

One should be careful these days, as we need to remember the old trading wisdom, which says buy rumors, sell facts. The Results of this election finally came out, catching traders out of access to the market on the weekend. This could be a good lesson to keep away during such a major event such as this US presidential election as volatility spikes dramatically as well as investors' emotions, and only a deep "pocket" could survive then.

Gold Chart

Gold was up and down with huge moves in both directions last week. It finished the period on the upbeat, as investors were puzzled with uncertainty over election results. The move-up was strong as the price quickly broke $1900 and gained $84 from $1876 to $1960 at the top. Some profit-taking then followed as the week ended lower at $1952. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: "Buy Rumors, Sell Facts"?"