Category: INO.com Contributors

Oil Just Posted Its Worst Monthly/Quarterly Loss Ever!

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Over the last month, we have seen the price of Crude oil benchmarks in the U.S. and Brent futures get destroyed. Both benchmarks lost right around two-thirds of their value during the first quarter and roughly 55% of their value during March alone.

The massive price destruction occurred because of many reasons. The first and foremost is the Coronavirus pandemic and how the world is fighting the spread of the virus. Shutting borders to foreign nationals, implementing 'Stay at home Orders,' and recommending 'social distancing' is all leading to a massive reduction in the demand for oil on a worldwide scale. Cruise ships aren't leaving ports, airlines have slashed their number of flights, both public busses and school busses are not operating, and the average person isn't driving their vehicles. We have already begun to see reports from around the world how pollution levels are declining due to these modes of transportation, essentially stopping.

The second reason the price of oil crumbled was because of the "price war' that is currently ragging between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The two countries were the main reasons the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) couldn't agree on production cuts following the softening demand after the Coronavirus began spreading on a massive scale. Russia and OPEC's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, disagreed on how much each country would reduce production in order to help stabilize the price of oil around the world.

The price war has caused the Saudi's to increase production from 9.7 million barrels a day in February to a targeted more than 12 million barrels a day in April. Thus far, they have held up their threats. As of early April, the first wave of crude was already heading toward Europe, and the U.S. Saudi Arabia hired extra supertankers in March. Those ships are positioned near oil terminals preparing to be filled. Continue reading "Oil Just Posted Its Worst Monthly/Quarterly Loss Ever!" →

Gold Futures Eye Breakout

Posted on by Mike Seery

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,654 while currently trading at 1,637 an ounce down about $17 for the week still experiencing high volatility daily.

Gold prices remain firm because we have lost about 10 million jobs in the United States of the last two weeks as the unemployment rate has jumped to 4.4%. However, it's pretty much over 10% at the current time as we will wait for next month's monthly unemployment number to confirm that as that should be supportive gold prices as a worldwide slowdown is at hand. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the upside. However, the $1,700 level has acted like cement and has not been able to penetrate it on a closing basis, as that is where the true breakout will occur, in my opinion.

The volatility at the current time is exceptionally high. I don't think that situation is going to change anytime soon as all commodity and stock markets are experiencing substantial daily price swings. The Coronavirus has certainly thrown a wrench into the closet as I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better a chart pattern to develop as the risk/reward is not in your favor to take a bearish or bullish position at this time.

TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the May contract is currently trading at 14.54 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 14.53 up slightly for the trading week as prices are right near a 3 week high as prices bottomed out on March 18th at 11.15.

We are keeping a close eye on the U.S economy, which has come to a standstill as the unemployment rate is going Continue reading "Gold Futures Eye Breakout" →

How To Play This Volatile Market

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Over the past few weeks, I have been on the phone with tons of different market participants. Some are professional investors, people investing a little of their own money, financial advisors who manage a few million and others who manage hundreds of millions, and to first-time investors in their 20's, 30's, and 40's and even one as young as 17 years old.

While everyone wants to talk about what is going on or wants to know what to do or has a strong opinion on what to do within the market, only one thing holds true of every person I have spoken to; no one truly knows what is going to happen next.

Let me emphasize that, "No one truly knows what is going to happen next."

This is true for the people I have been speaking with, investors who managed billions in hedge funds or retirement funds. The Jim Cramer's or other talking heads on CNBC, the President of the United States, nor Congress, nor the Pope himself, knows what is going to happen next.

Although some people may tell you they do or just be very convincing that they do, let me assure you, they don't know what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month, or the rest of the year.

And let's be clear, this would all be true whether or not we're in the midst of a pandemic or not.

However, you can't blame people for making predictions or looking at the past performance of stocks following significant economic turmoil. Comparing the past and trying to find similarities to help us make 'predictions' is very common and can be useful at times, but that doesn't mean we should blindly follow those predictions. (This is even true for my suggestions.)

So, if no one knows what's going to happen, then what should we do? Continue reading "How To Play This Volatile Market" →

Unprecedented Oil Glut Appears Inevitable

Posted on by Robert Boslego

The U.S. has voiced its concerns over the Saudi-Russian oil price war, but thus far, those concerns appear to have fallen on deaf ears. In an interview that was broadcast on CNBC, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) answer the question, “Do you think President Trump should try to use his influence with Russia or Saudi Arabia to try to get them to stop producing so much oil?”

“Absolutely. I think that is a major priority especially for my home state of Texas. And if you look what happened, right in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, a public health crisis that is dominating our focus, and an economic crisis that is flowing from it. Millions of people losing their jobs.

“The Saudis and Russians decided to take advantage of that crisis by flooding the market and driving the price of oil way, way down. And that was opportunistic. It was designed with a very specific purpose. The Saudis are trying to drive out of business American producers, and in particular shale producers, largely in the Permian Basin in Texas, North Dakota and in a number of oil producing states across the country.

“That behavior I think is wrong. I think it is taking advantage of a country that is a friend.

“A couple of weeks ago, I joined with thirteen senators in a letter to the Saudi Ambassador to pull back and stop trying to drive the price down to artificially low. Nine of the thirteen did a conference call with Saudi Ambassador that was as candid a call and direct a call as I’ve ever had with a foreign leader. The nine of us unloaded on her. And their defense was but Russia is doing this.

“I said but Russia is not our friend. We treat them accordingly. We are aware of their Continue reading "Unprecedented Oil Glut Appears Inevitable" →

Why Inflation?

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

The simple answer is that is what they are doing, inflating.

The slightly less simple answer is that they inflated in 2001 and it worked (for gold, silver, commodities and eventually stocks, roughly in that order). It also worked in 2008-2009 (for gold, silver, commodities and eventually stocks, roughly in that order).

The more complicated answer is that we are down a rabbit hole of debt and the hole appears bottomless. What’s a few more trillion on top of un-payable trillions? As long as confidence remains intact in our monetary and fiscal authorities – and COVID-19 or no COVID-19, stock mini-crash or not, confidence to my eye is intact, speaking of my country, anyway – they will inflate, and what’s more, they will be called upon to inflate.

Confidence may be failing in other parts of the world but the average American is behind this thing they don’t even really understand, known as the Fed. The average American expects the bailout checks from the fiscally reflating government too. Angst, of which there has been plenty lately, is much different from lack of confidence.

I can’t include here all the ways and means the Fed has (frankly, I don’t know about them all) to prop the system, but if you go to the St. Louis Fed website you will find a whole slew of Keynesian egghead stuff. They are on it! Continue reading "Why Inflation?" →