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U.S. Crude Production Outperforms In November

Posted on February 6, 2019February 5, 2019 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration reported that November crude oil production averaged 11.900 million barrels per day (mmbd), up 345,000 b/d from October. This estimate capped a spectacular 6-month gain of 1.436 mmbd from June through November, a period when capacity takeaway constraints had been expected to slow down the growth in Texas.

The year-over-year gains have been especially impressive with the November figure being 1.801 mmbd. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply add to that. For November, that additional gain is about 500,000 b/d. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production Outperforms In November" →

Worst Performing ETFs Of 2018

Posted on February 5, 2019February 5, 2019 by Matt Thalman

After a down year like 2018 most investors want to just forget about what happened. But those investors who focus on understanding why their investments went south are the ones who will learn from their mistakes and hopefully avoid making them in the future. The start of a new year is a good time to review your investing thesis and try to pinpoint why some investments didn’t turn out the way you imagined they would.

With the S&P 500 (SPX) ending the year down 6.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) losing 5.63%, and the NASDAQ (COMP) dropping 3.88% in 2018, more than a handful of Exchange Traded Funds not only underperformed the major averages, but a few of them could have cost you nearly everything.

Let’s take a look at the top five worst performing ETFs of 2018 in a number of different categories the average investor had to choose from ion 2018 to see if you owned one or more of them.

The following table shows the performance of the worst five ETFs in 2018, as well as their performance over the last month, the last three months, the last five and ten years.

The following table shows the performance of the worst five Non-Leveraged ETFs in 2018, as well as their performance over the last month, the last three months, the last five and ten years. Continue reading "Worst Performing ETFs Of 2018" →

How Far Could Crude Oil Go?

Posted on February 4, 2019 by Aibek Burabayev

The price of crude oil closed above the earlier top of $54.6 last Friday to confirm the reversal to the upside. So, is it the right time to find out how far we can go with it?

At the end of last May, I posted an early warning of the imminent crash of crude oil price amid the mass media euphoria from the dream of the $100 price tag per barrel, which was a good contrarian indicator. The price of WTI finally dropped last October after it broke long-term support.

I am very grateful to you as you were very active on the poll where I asked you to share your expectations about the crude oil price by the end of 2018. Below are the results of it.

As we can see most of you were ready for the drop of the oil price in the next lower range between $50 and $70 marks, although there were oil optimists in second place, who bet on the price to be in the $70-$90 range. Only those whose bets ranked the third ($30-$50) turned out to be right as oil finished the previous year at $45.8 after hitting the $42 area the day before Christmas.

In this post, I would like to show you some historical similarities, which could help us to understand how deeply the current pullback could go. Let’s start with the bigger chart. Continue reading "How Far Could Crude Oil Go?" →

IBM Finally Delivers Robust Numbers

Posted on February 2, 2019January 31, 2019 by Noah Kiedrowski

International Business Machines (IBM) finally delivered the long-awaited robust quarterly numbers that retail investors and Wall Street had been craving, lifting the stock by 10% in a single session post-earnings. IBM had been trading in the doldrums for months as the bear market in Q4 2018 took the stock down to the sub $120 level, where it traded for months until its Q4 earnings release broke this negative trend. IBM suffered a stock implosion after its Q3 earnings release that fell short of expectations coupled with its announcement that it will be acquiring Red Hat (RHT) for $34 billion. The combination of bad news in conjunction with the bear market backdrop yielded an IBM stock that traded at a 5-year low of $106 with a 5.9% dividend yield. IBM has had a long turn in restoring growth after posting 20+ consecutive quarters of declining revenue however IBM had posted quarters of revenue growth as of late. This growth has come on heels of its long-term imperatives beginning to bear fruit in emerging high-value segments that has fundamentally changed its business mix while evolving its offerings to align with new age information technology demands. The Red Hat acquisition will ostensibly augment its transition away from its dependency on legacy businesses to the future of cloud, artificial intelligence, and analytics. As IBM transitions to quarterly revenue growth, in the backdrop of its evolution to emerging high-value segments (i.e. blockchain) and bringing the Red Hat portfolio into the fold, IBM presents a compelling investment opportunity, despite its recent pop after earnings were announced. In addition to the evolving business mix in strategic imperatives, IBM offers a great dividend, share buyback program while continuously acquiring companies to drive the business into the future.

Q4 Earnings – 10% Post Earnings Pop

IBM reported Q4 earnings of $4.87 EPS and revenue of $21.76 billion which was a -3.5% year-over-year decline however beat analysts’ targets by $30 million on revenue. IBM popped the following day as the company laid out its growth narrative and Red Hat acquisition. In its faster-growing business segments such as strategic imperatives and Cognitive Solutions, revenue grew by 9% and 2%, respectively. Continue reading "IBM Finally Delivers Robust Numbers" →

U.S. Petroleum Supply Expected To Surge To 2025

Posted on February 1, 2019 by Robert Boslego

The Energy Information Administration released its Annual Energy Outlook for 2019, and what a difference a year has made. Due to shale oil’s production response in 2018, EIA’s outlook through 2025 shows supplies surging.

The production forecast includes both crude oil and “other supply,” which will be explained in greater detail below. Often, U.S. production is generally limited to crude oil, but other liquids included in petroleum supply, have become a major component and are expected to rise even faster than crude alone.

Total liquids are projected to rise from 17.5 million barrels per day (mmbd) in 2018 to 22 mmbd in 2025 in EIA’s reference (base) case. In its high price scenario, EIA projects 2025 volume could be 26.4 mmbd. By comparison, Russia is producing just over 12 mmbd and Saudi Arabia just over 10 mmbd with its recent cutback. And so US output could be roughly the number two and three highest country volumes combined. Continue reading "U.S. Petroleum Supply Expected To Surge To 2025" →

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