Category: INO.com Contributors

Oil Likely To Find Support In Uptrend

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market. I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near or above $70~71 ppb.

My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5~7+ days. I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets. When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers. In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.

This first chart shows our proprietary price cycle modeling system at work and clearly shows the key Fibonacci support levels that I believe will act as a floor for the price of Oil. I believe a bottom will form near $67 ppb and a new price rally will result in prices moving quickly back above $70 ppb.

crude oil market

This second chart shows the XLE price cycles on a Daily basis and I want to highlight the potential for a price move from near $73 to well above $76 (or higher) if our analysis is correct. This reflects a +4~8% price move that I believe could happen within the next 5~10+ days. Continue reading "Oil Likely To Find Support In Uptrend" →

Maybe FAANG Isn't For You, But BAT May Be

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Long before the trade war started, investors have been arguing over whether it’s better to invest in an established market like the US or growing, larger population market like China. This debate has stretched for years, well before the terms FAANG (Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN),Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL)) or BAT (Baidu (BIDU), Alibaba (BABA), and Tencent (TCEHY)) were coined.

But now, as the trade war between China and the US continues to heat up, investors have been battling over another China Vs. US technology investments. Perhaps because these stocks have been monster winners and some believe that since these companies are mainly technology stocks, they will be exempt from the pain that could come from the trade war. However, while it is unknown how much the trade war will affect these big technology companies, it should be noted that if each country’s economy suffers from the new tariffs, that the FAANG and BAT stocks could feel some adverse effects.

But in the meantime, if you are still interested in finding some Exchange Traded Funds which will give you exposure to FAANG and BAT stocks, you are in luck. I recently highlighted a few FAANG related ETFs which you can read about here, or continue below for some BAT related ETFs. Continue reading "Maybe FAANG Isn't For You, But BAT May Be" →

Permian Takeaway Capacity: From Constrained To Over-Supply by 2020

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Oil-directed drilling rigs in the Permian Basin continue to rise and are at 485 for the week ending August 24th. This figure is 29 percent higher than a year ago.

Permian

The growth of crude production in the Permian Basin has been very impressive over the past year. Estimated output in September 2018 is expected to be 3.421 million barrels per day (mmbd), an increase of 850,000 b/d, or 33 percent, year-over-year. Continue reading "Permian Takeaway Capacity: From Constrained To Over-Supply by 2020" →

Disney Continues Path via Future Growth Initiatives

Posted on by Noah Kiedrowski

Disney’s Growth and Future Initiatives

Disney delivered solid Q3 FY2018 quarterly results as the company continues to be focused on future initiatives such as acquiring Twenty-First Century Fox assets and a major push into streaming with a majority stake in Hulu (60% ownership), ESPN Plus launch earlier this year and direct to consumer Disney branded streaming service coming in 2019. Disney’s Q3 revenue and EPS grew by 7.3% and 18%, respectively year-over-year. Disney continues to deliver at the box office, and theme parks and its stock has finally broken out above the $110 level and appears to be consolidating above this level. Disney’s brands are ubiquitous and providing long-lasting, durable revenue streams that transcend theme parks, toys, merchandise, movie franchises, streaming initiatives, Fox properties and international reach. Disney is closing the gap in streaming as Hulu grows rapidly and in the backdrop, ESPN+ and direct to consumer Disney branded streaming service matures and comes to fruition. Disney currently trades at a P/E of 14.1 while the average stock in the S&P 500 trades at 24.9 representing a 40% discount to the average stock. Disney has been growing its dividend over the years and currently yields 1.5% to bolster Disney’s investment thesis further. Disney offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity considering the growth, Fox acquisition, pipeline, Media Networks remediation plan, diversity of its portfolio, tax reform, share repurchase program (on suspension) and dividend growth. Continue reading "Disney Continues Path via Future Growth Initiatives" →

Don't Buy The Low Inflation Story

Posted on by George Yacik

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent investors home happy for the weekend last Friday when he outlined a fairly balanced plan of interest rate increases designed to fight inflation while avoiding throwing the economy off track. Nevertheless, some economists at the Fed itself appear to believe that the central bank may not be taking the threat of inflation seriously enough.

In his prepared remarks for his speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Friday, Powell indicated that he’s not overly worried about rising inflation, or at least not enough to be more aggressive about raising rates to avoid piercing a hole in the economic balloon just as it’s starting to expand.

“While inflation has recently moved up near 2%, we have seen no clear sign of an acceleration above 2%, and there does not seem to be an elevated risk of overheating,” the Fed chair said. Moreover, he said the Fed has to balance “moving too fast and needlessly shortening the expansion, versus moving too slowly and risking a destabilizing overheating. I see the current path of gradually raising interest rates as the approach to taking seriously both of these risks.”

That was enough to push the S&P 500 to its first record close since January 26 and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to 2.81%, which is down about 20 basis points from its recent peak of 3.00% at the beginning of this month. Continue reading "Don't Buy The Low Inflation Story" →