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HealthEquity - Breaking Out Above $80

Posted on June 16, 2018June 19, 2018 by Noah Kiedrowski

Introduction

HealthEquity Inc. (HQY) once again blew out the numbers when it reported its Q1 FY19 results with the stock following suit breaking out above $80 per share to an all-time high. I first profiled HealthEquity when it was trading in the sub $40 range as a play on a secular growth trend in the healthcare space regardless of legislative actions, drug pricing debate or rising insurance costs. HealthEquity is not an insurance company thus does not possess any liability for coverage in any capacity nor does the company play any role in the pharmaceutical supply chain.

HealthEquity is at the center of a healthcare paradigm shift where consumers are taking control of their healthcare dollars via leveraging Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). HealthEquity manages funds allocated for medical, dental and vision expenses that are deducted on a pre-tax basis and deposited into a dedicated HSA account. HealthEquity manages $6.9 billion in assets across 3.5 million accounts against a potential market maturity of $1 trillion in assets across 50-60 million accounts.

HealthEquity has posted annual revenue growth of 42%, 44%, 41% and 29% over fiscal years 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. The durability of this growth has a long runway due to the secular growth in the HSA market. The company is sitting on largely untapped revenue sources where the vast majority of account holders have yet to invest any HSA money in investment offerings. Expanding margins for greater profitability is also unfolding as the older the account, the greater the gross margins hence gross margins increased 269 basis points in the recent quarter. HealthEquity is currently sitting on a healthy balance sheet with ~$270 million in cash and cash equivalents with zero debt. HealthEquity is posting accelerating revenue, cash flow, margin expansion and income growth with a strong balance sheet. I feel that HealthEquity will continue to post strong growth as it services the double-digit HSA growth market and manages more assets, accounts, and investments within these accounts. HealthEquity may be a great long-term investment in the healthcare space that’s independent of the health insurances, pharmaceutical supply chain companies, drug makers or pharmacies. Continue reading "HealthEquity - Breaking Out Above $80" →

Now Is The Time To Believe In Solar Energy

Posted on June 14, 2018July 2, 2018 by Matt Thalman

On May 9th the California Energy Commission approved a proposal to require most new homes built after January 1st, 2020 will be required to have solar panels installed on them. The new regulations will undoubtedly be a boom for an industry that had a rough time in 2017, the first-year installations declined.

The new ruling piggy-backs on a 2013 requirement that all new homes be “solar-ready.” The solar-ready rule indicated that new homes be built with a certain amount of roof space so that a future homeowner had the option to add solar panels at a later date.

The most recent rule will no longer give homeowners or builders the option to forgo the upfront cost of solar panels, which some estimate will be high as $30,000 per home. The most persuasive arguments against the new rule are just that, the additional costs of the home. California is by most measures already in a housing crisis regarding costs; many believe this will only compound the problem.

But, that also leads to some excellent investment opportunities. The solar panel industry is going to see a massive, built-in installation base. In 2017 California saw over 53,000 single family homes built and most would agree that number needs to be higher in a state with an ever-growing population.

On a very conservative basis, that number will grow to 55,000 in 2020. It is currently estimated that only about 600,000 homes in California currently have solar panels. So, to think that number of easily more than double in a few years when all new homes are required to have solar power, it's clear the investment opportunity in solar is huge. And remember, this is just California we are talking about, other states such as Arizona and Florida, (parts of Miami already have) also could pass similar regulations.

So, how do you cash in on this opportunity? Continue reading "Now Is The Time To Believe In Solar Energy" →

Don't Bet On Crises To Keep Bond Rates Lower

Posted on June 13, 2018July 30, 2018 by George Yacik

Despite the recent dip in the 10-year Treasury note yield back below 3%, don’t count on it staying there. Lately, it seems, the only thing keeping the rate below that level is some sort of international crisis – Italy, North Korea, trade wars, etc. But the basic fundamentals determining that rate – economic growth and supply and demand, in other words – are calling for even higher rates, well above 3%.

On the supply side, more Treasury debt is coming to market all the time, like an incoming tide in the Pacific Ocean. On the demand side, there are fewer buyers – and I mean big buyers. More about that in a minute. At the same time, the economy is growing stronger, which by itself is going to put upward pressure on rates.

In other words, if you’re betting that the 10-year yield is going lower, or will stay around or below 3%, you’re really only holding it as a safe haven. Nothing wrong with that, lots of investors do that. But if you’re hoping to profit when something in the world goes wrong, you may be playing a losing game.

First the economy. Last week on CNBC’s Squawk Box, the gold dust twins, Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon, tried to outdo themselves in how great the U.S. economy is performing. Continue reading "Don't Bet On Crises To Keep Bond Rates Lower" →

Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?

Posted on June 12, 2018June 12, 2018 by Aibek Burabayev

Last August I posted a chart analysis of one particular commodity market index as I spotted an interesting pattern. As time goes by, we can see how my outlook emerged and after almost a year the market reached another crucial milestone or better yet a decision point.

This index is called The Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Index (CRB). It is the gauge of the commodities market, which is comprised of 19 commodities: Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, Unleaded Gas, and Wheat.

So, if you watch commodities market, then the two charts below could be of strong interest to you.

Chart 1. Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index Monthly: Failed At Resistance

Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Above is an update of the earlier chart. The risk/reward that time ($182) favored a long position as the upside target at the major top ($474) promised to cover risk extensively amid oversold market conditions. Continue reading "Commodities: Sell In May And Go Away?" →

Three Politically Focused ETFs

Posted on June 8, 2018July 2, 2018 by Matt Thalman

While some investors like to think a company has sole control of their destiny, most wise investors know that outside factors do play a large role in whether a company will succeed or fail, both in the short and long run. Politics may be one of, if not the strongest outside forces that can affect a company’s long-term prospects.

A perfect example of this is playing out right now with the tariff wars raging between the USA and the rest of the world. US steel and aluminum companies seem to be poised to have a decent future as high tariffs are now being placed on imported metal. This is all being sold by the politicians to ensure national security. The idea is that without a steel and aluminum industry, the nation would be at risk if a major war were to break out and there was a shortage of materials.

The tariff’s being placed on imported metals is aimed to help keep US steel and aluminum producers in business. It would appear as of now that this industry and these businesses are certainly benefiting from the Republican’s in the White House.

But, some people believe that’s not the only industry which benefits from the current political leadership. There are currently several Exchange Traded Funds which have been built around industries that may prosper due to the policies being put in place by the current Republican-controlled White House and Congress. Continue reading "Three Politically Focused ETFs" →

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