Category: INO.com Contributors

Gold And The Era Of Rising Interest Rates

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


The U.S. dollar is the primary benchmark for the expense of the time value of the money around the world. It affects all asset classes, and I want to analyze it to see if the speculation about the coming cycle of the rise in interest rates is valid or not.

The wise trader once said; “if you want to know the market trend just squeeze the chart to see the perspective.” I used that advice to focus on the long-term perspective, and in this post, I would like to share the result of my research in the three graphs below.

Chart 1. The Yield Of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes Quarterly: Downtrend Could Be Over Soon

Quarterly Chart of 10 Year U.S. Treasury Notes
Chart courtesy of stooq.com

The chart above shows the history of the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury notes (UST) from 1980 to present day. I chose that period to highlight the whole move down of the yield from the top in 1981 at the 15.84%. I chose this instrument as it is a benchmark showing investors’ sentiment about the future interest rates for the U.S. dollar. Continue reading "Gold And The Era Of Rising Interest Rates" →

Oil Market Outlook Deteriorating With OPEC's Production Rise

Posted on by Robert Boslego

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies


According to OPEC, global OECD oil inventories fell 22 million barrels in June to end at 3.033 billion. But that figure is 252 million barrels above its five-year average. OPEC has targeted reducing those inventories to the average level, but its own supply-demand projections imply that goal will not be met through 2018, assuming it maintains production at the July 2018 level. In fact, there will be a 45 million barrel build in 2017, and an additional 162 million barrel build in 2018, even if production does not rise after the extension ends in March 2018. This implies that oil prices will need to be below marginal production costs for some time in order to limit production growth.

July Production

OPEC reported that production rose by 173,000 b/d in July to average 32.869 million barrels per day (mmbd). OPEC’s 32.5 mmbd ceiling included Indonesia but did not in Equatorial Guinea, and so the adjusted July figure was 33.449. This implies that OPEC produced 949,000 b/d above its ceiling, a large failure, especially considering that it had been claiming to be 100% (or more) compliant with its quotas. Continue reading "Oil Market Outlook Deteriorating With OPEC's Production Rise" →

Tech Stocks On a Run; ETFs To Buy 'IF' you Think It Will Continue

Posted on by Matt Thalman

Matt Thalman - INO.com Contributor - ETFs


The NASDAQ (NASDAQ:COMP) has hit a number of new all-time highs in 2017. This has many analysts and investors wondering if the market and especially technology stocks are getting over-heated.

The Bulls will tell you that we are entering a new time of economic expansion and that technology is leading us forward. They say the higher than normal P/E ratios are due to the massive growth opportunities these companies still have moving forward.

The Bears, which I spoke about a few weeks ago, disagree and believe we are heading toward the next dot.com bubble. They say the 'Bulls' growth expectations are already built into tech stocks so much so that these companies are priced to perfection, which we all know is unlikely to happen.

Personally, I sit in-between both camps because I do believe some technology stocks will fail to meet expectations but others are completely changing how commerce is done, and because of their disruptive businesses, they will succeed. Continue reading "Tech Stocks On a Run; ETFs To Buy 'IF' you Think It Will Continue" →

Ladies and Gentlemen: Gridlock Is Good

Posted on by George Yacik

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


One of the marvels of the continued bull market in stocks this year – and to a much lesser extent in bonds, too – is that it’s taking place in spite of what appears to be a tremendous amount of dysfunction and conflict within the federal government. But it’s perhaps more accurate to say that the bull market continues to motor on because of, rather than in spite of, the gridlock.

Leave it to the Republican Party to create government gridlock single-handedly – without any assistance from the opposition party. Here is a party that controls both houses of Congress and the presidency and yet still manages to screw things up.

Then again, maybe it’s wrong to think of Donald Trump as a Republican president. Rather, perhaps the correct way to think of Trump is as America’s first Third Party President, who just happened to use the machinery of the Republican Party to get elected, but is no more a Republican than Ross Perot was.

Quite clearly there are three active parties, or factions, in Washington, and all of them are aligned against each other – the Republicans, the Democrats, and the White House. Continue reading "Ladies and Gentlemen: Gridlock Is Good" →

Stock Analysis From A To Z: Letter "C"

Posted on by Aibek Burabayev

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


There is not much change in the precious metals charts, and that gave me a chance to find some trading setups for stocks. In this post, I would like to share my analysis of the stocks starting with the letter “C.”

Table 1. Filtered Stocks For Letter “C”

Letter C stocks
Chart courtesy of finviz.com

Out of the 19 screened stocks I’ve selected three to analyze as they have clearer chart structure: CAVM, CNK, and CPE. All of them have potentially good short setups. It looks like not all companies could keep the pace with the rising S&P 500 index which continues to make record highs one after the other. Continue reading "Stock Analysis From A To Z: Letter "C"" →